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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


bluearmy
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
34 minutes ago, warrenb said:

If you live in the north.

Agreed , less of something widespread I'd think

I'd like to see something from the charts at the end of the weekend early next week

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Probably off topic but icon at 144 hrs has some better ridging probably nothing going forward 

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
52 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Panic over.

Check out Met Office update!

Significant snowfall alert!

Shame there isn't a laugh emoji to choose from...

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Probably off topic but icon at 144 hrs has some better ridging probably nothing going forward 

Yes, decent around Iceland, it might allow a brief north westerly, before that energy from the Atlantic moves in again once more.

00z attached for comparison

iconnh-0-162 (2).png

iconnh-0-174 (3).png

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
38 minutes ago, snowsummer said:

I know 2020 was a year we  all want to forget, but it did exist . Honestly. And no we didnt have a ssw last year. So 3 out of 4.

Did we have SSW last year? Was it that bad I forgot!?‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Much better 

 

icon-0-162.png?05-12

Yes and pushing much further north at the end. Blocking Atlantic off

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Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Location: NW London
52 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Judah Cohen saying the opposite, with NE US going cold, Also saying best chance of Snow for NW Europe is this week. Who will be correct ?

 

Judah uses the GFS

 im sure the earlier tweet mentioned usa also getting a lobe of the Vortex but eurassia getting the deeper cold 

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Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL

Icon is what we want to see happening next with energy going under a blocking high that is over Iceland. 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Those  insipid low Heighths around the esb are a real pain. Any decent ridge pushing out from there would really change things down the line

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

Blimey icon 180 worth stopping home schooling and foregoing the detention (it didn't go well on day 1). There is hope for the the models at least... 

iconnh-0-180.png

iconnh-1-180.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
5 minutes ago, Griff said:

Blimey icon 180 worth stopping home schooling and foregoing the detention (it didn't go well on day 1). There is hope for the the models at least... 

iconnh-0-180.png

iconnh-1-180.png

GFS is trying to force ridging at 144 hrs ie Deeping low more on the 12z.mabye not enough Heighths? 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Lets see if we can get this repeating from 06z//

image.thumb.png.5895edb10e6a123b346683897dfbdcc6.png

Peturb 28 from GFS Too

image.thumb.png.d3833e016348aa1ee124d1785a5758f6.png

Wonder if this is what the METO are seeing

 

 

 

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 minutes ago, XtremeUKWeather said:

v cold on Friday from UKMOimage.thumb.png.9351cdd07b2ee0db94112ad46a0e2761.pngimage.thumb.png.b3cf6e4bee6ca2d1bb8785eb7d20bb6c.pngGFS still messy with the cold image.thumb.png.bd3d4f4f2d37ec2c7cefebf82cca275d.pngimage.thumb.png.aa7effdb8b342871ac9369a2ef9f97e7.pngI think its because GFS has that to our south

+72hours and still not accurate my god

think I prefer GFS, gives many areas snow,UKMO lookd dry and boring

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-162.png?12

IS the GFS Starting to  pick up something that would be at relevantly short notice? 

Possibly. If it remains on the 18z and Tom could increase the ridging and forcing

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

BBC  say warming up, DOH!

It is warming up as warmer air runs over the top of high pressure but for how long?

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Gfs trying but looks like it's a bust with the ridge not holding, icon nearly made it though, at least if we do get another easterly it won't be marginal crud again. 

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
13 minutes ago, Griff said:

Blimey icon 180 worth stopping home schooling and foregoing the detention (it didn't go well on day 1). There is hope for the the models at least... 

iconnh-0-180.png

iconnh-1-180.png

Icon and gfs 180, some similarities and differences of course 

gfsnh-0-180 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

UKMO Op 144 looks ok to me. Heights lowering over Iberia. Possible gap mid Atlantic for heights to be build into, with a chance the Atlantic low phases with the Iberian lower heights

 

image.thumb.png.07be9551cc6980f04e170afacdddb027.png

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