Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[CongletonHeat]

First time I've read this thread this winter, so we are having another SSW, isn't that 3 years on the trot now?

[mushymanrob]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The anomalies may have shown decent high latitude blocking and indeed we did see that occur, the issue was the relative warmth in the Arctic from where the air mass originated, so by the time it got here the upper were marginal and not good enough for most.

The models are already showing proper cold piling out from the Arctic due to the SSW, what remains to be seen is whether we can tap into it.

Just saying, give it a week or two.

Well on that we concur, but i stress, it was about potential rather then actual and thats why i for one was expecting something colder to develop.

Im not referring to the SSW, the colder then average spell we are having now is as a result of the building northern blocking that started in November. Every proper cold spell we have had was via northern blocking.... but not every northern block resulted in a cold spell.

[mushymanrob]

To illustrate the potential we have.....

One chart is todays, the other from the height of the BFTE in 2018. It shows IMHO why that blessed Azores ridge has scuppered current chances, for if it wasnt for that, it it had been absorbed into the Greenland block, then the chart would have been extremely close to the 2018 chart that delivered a proper cold spell. .... Potential.

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by mushymanrob
typo

[MATTWOLVES 3]

14 minutes ago, CongletonHeat said:

First time I've read this thread this winter, so we are having another SSW, isn't that 3 years on the trot now?

We had one in 2018,and the one in 2019 was not favourable for us at all,and was more of a displacement event..Last year the Vortex ran at record strength,and was 100% intact...so 3 of the last 4 years have brought one.. So perhaps they seem to be increasing in frequency.

[fromey]

16 minutes ago, CongletonHeat said:

First time I've read this thread this winter, so we are having another SSW, isn't that 3 years on the trot now?

Your correct, 2018 successful,2019 not so much! 2021 who knows! 
they say 1-3 SSWfail so by rights if 2019 was a failure then this should be our time!!

[winterof79]

With a considerably weakened tropospheric Vortex and a couple of recent tweets, suggesting the split will take the core cold over Eurasia rather than USA, I am getting a tad exited

Simon lee

January update to

@ECMWF

SEAS5 showing strong support for a negative NAO during Jan & Feb. I suspect that the shift from previous forecasts arises from the now sig. weakened strat vortex, for which there was not a strong signal in the Dec fcst. 

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by winterof79

[Battleground Snow]

MJO to offer some assistance past mid month? Could explain the westerly push we are seeing over the next 7-10 days while it passes through phases 3 and 4

 

[mushymanrob]

9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

MJO to offer some assistance past mid month? Could explain the westerly push we are seeing over the next 7-10 days while it passes through phases 3 and 4

 

Phase 7 would be better..

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

Phase 7 would be better..

Yes it would be helpful if it could speed up at bit. At least heading in the right direction

[mountain shadow]

Panic over.

Check out Met Office update!

Significant snowfall alert!

[frosty ground]

42 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The anomalies may have shown decent high latitude blocking and indeed we did see that occur, the issue was the relative warmth in the Arctic from where the air mass originated, so by the time it got here the upper were marginal and not good enough for most.

The models are already showing proper cold piling out from the Arctic due to the SSW, what remains to be seen is whether we can tap into it.

Just saying, give it a week or two.

Did the air from any of the cold spells we have so far arrive from the artic? I am not sure it has.

[swfc]

52 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

So less cold unsettled conditions in to next week I don’t think it’s going to last long meto update colder weather from Scandinavia coming across North Sea but where mild cold meet significant snow fall..

Problem they change more than my wife's moods plus that's the extended period into February?. Guess time will tell, again 

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, Cavehill Snow said:

I know you concentrate on the NOAA anomolies charts, but do you know if the EC / GPS version pick up on this before the GPS model runs?

To some extent, usually EC is better than GFS 500 anomaly but neither give as solid a pattern, usually, as NOAA.

[swfc]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Panic over.

Check out Met Office update!

Significant snowfall alert!

Amazing . 

[warrenb]

35 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

With a considerably weakened tropospheric Vortex and a couple of recent tweets, suggesting the split will take the core cold over Eurasia rather than USA, I am getting a tad exited

Simon lee

January update to

@ECMWF

SEAS5 showing strong support for a negative NAO during Jan & Feb. I suspect that the shift from previous forecasts arises from the now sig. weakened strat vortex, for which there was not a strong signal in the Dec fcst. 

 

Judah Cohen saying the opposite, with NE US going cold, Also saying best chance of Snow for NW Europe is this week. Who will be correct ?

 

Judah uses the GFS

Edited January 5, 2021 by warrenb

[warrenb]

15 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Panic over.

Check out Met Office update!

Significant snowfall alert!

If you live in the north.

[snowsummer]

44 minutes ago, fromey said:

Your correct, 2018 successful,2019 not so much! 2021 who knows! 
they say 1-3 SSWfail so by rights if 2019 was a failure then this should be our time!!

I know 2020 was a year we  all want to forget, but it did exist . Honestly. And no we didnt have a ssw last year. So 3 out of 4.

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Judah Cohen saying the opposite, with NE US going cold, Also saying best chance of Snow for NW Europe is this week. Who will be correct ?

 

Judah uses the GFS

Yes I was going to say he uses GFS which model uses  more layers. 

[Continental Climate]

3 minutes ago, warrenb said:

If you live in the north.

You are right mate the update isn't that great really. OK for Scotland and pennines that's about all and that's not until end of the month. 

[Polar Maritime]

No more in here on METO extended, please use that thread for discussion.

[TSNWK]

18 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Panic over.

Check out Met Office update!

Significant snowfall alert!

Keeping the model related.

Mo update is no longer as confident that SSW will impact our part of the word in a positive manner for coldies.

Displaced vortex in Atlantic is my take currently, illustrated in EC46 which to my eyes suggested that it is actually this week we have our best chance of cold.

I'm increasing minded that now the SSW is upon us the models are picking up on reality and not forecasted starting data.

It just seems to have flipped recently at the same time as SSW started to show it's hand in reality

[swfc]

So anyway. The models showing if nothing else it will hopefully staying fairly dry for the areas affected with flooding recently. Pressure fairly good so non to bad

[fromey]

From the charts I put up earlier it took 10 days from the BFTE 2018 to show it hand! We are at day 1! 
it may not be the same but I’m giving it until 14days and from the organisation that we can’t mention they must have some confidence otherwise they wouldn’t of mentioned what they mentioned in there outlook.

un-bunch your panties and chill.

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by fromey

[Froze were the Days]

34 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Judah Cohen saying the opposite, with NE US going cold, Also saying best chance of Snow for NW Europe is this week. Who will be correct ?

 

Judah uses the GFS

Going by my experience it won't be Judah as he busts quite often going by recent years and using the gfs...but knowing our luck.

[Anthony Burden]

1 hour ago, Scandinavian High. said:

So less cold unsettled conditions in to next week I don’t think it’s going to last long meto update colder weather from Scandinavia coming across North Sea but where mild cold meet significant snow fall..

Early days yet regarding Scandinavian high,as Marco P states SSW could go either way,but mixed bag of weather

next week with an uptick in temperatures before something very exciting after.Fingers crossed for the white 

stuff over all U.K. rather than just the north.