Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Skullzrulerz]

GFS Temperatures looks to return to average/sightly above average starting from the 11th January

 

[Tim Bland]

How high do people think the risk is that the easterlies in the strat don’t reach the Troposphere ? To my mind most models don’t see much of a downwelling yet? Perhaps give it a few days and see where we are PS finally a few flakes in the snow desert of East Anglia this morning 

[winterof79]

I do detest Waning periods but wherever there's a wane there is a wax around the corner...........

 

[Anthony Burden]

Interesting to see if we reach double figures this January,I doubt it I call that below average

regarding what earlier January’s has given in the past.

[Battleground Snow]

Trying to find a bit of positivity for coldies, but feeding of scraps on the 06z here at 150. A bit more wedgey around southern Greenland and the high a bit stronger in the Barents sea.

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[IDO]

22 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

How high do people think the risk is that the easterlies in the strat don’t reach the Troposphere ? To my mind most models don’t see much of a downwelling yet? Perhaps give it a few days and see where we are PS finally a few flakes in the snow desert of East Anglia this morning 

We also have a possible issue where the first warming is not enough to torpedo the sPV, so it recovers, maybe during the loss of the Ural block and the general flattening of the NH profile (post-d6)? If we do not get a good amount of HLB'ing from the SWWE then the second warming may not be enough to stop the sPV recovering fully? More questions than answers at the moment!

 d8 as you were on the gfs 06z: 

Edited January 5, 2021 by IDO

[That ECM]

Trending better IMO.

[fromey]

30hpa and 10hpa still doing it’s thing. 

[ALL ABOARD]

Here we go.... 

 

Maybe? 

[Penrith Snow]

Unfortunately the model output is beginning to resemble January 2019 following the SSW on the 1st. As you will remember that was a benign month with high pressure, light winds some frost and no snow,  like what is been shown for next week. 

Time for change of course but just 2 years ago the same SSW scenario played out with cold, snowy MetO medium range forecasts and it all cumulated in late February with the warmest winter spell ever recorded.

Hopefully lightning won't strike the same place twice.

Andy

[Battleground Snow]

The para bit more interesting here at 186 with some Iceland high pressure in the mix.

 

[blizzard81]

54 minutes ago, chris55 said:

ECM control on the cold side into next week! With the Operational at the top of the pack. Trend is of course much milder overall.

Clear to see the spread from Sunday. 

(from Matt H Twitter)

Yep, the 06z gfs parallel op seems to be a nice fit with that ecm ens 8 day mean chart. I see nothing to be downbeat about this morning. 

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Here we go.... 

 

Maybe? 

GFSP, straw clutching 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

2 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Here we go.... 

 

Maybe? 

There certainly seems scope for another ettempt at high pressure north of us again, iv got a feeling the next few days were gonna see ridging attempts become a regular with cold uppers surging South, a settled wkend to come and maybe colder toward next wkend again is my hunch 

[blizzard81]

That is an absolute stonker of a chart. 

[Eastbourneguy]

I'll just pretend this is the only output this morning.

[blizzard81]

There are signs of that gap to our north gaining traction now. A parting of the waves with the main section of the pv on the Siberian side. 

[danm]

I still think patience is needed - no guarantees obviously that the SSW will impact our weather in the UK, but it's still too early to know whether it will or won't. Naturally we're going to want to start seeing some evidence of it appearing in the models, but we could be looking towards mid to late Jan for that. What I don't think is correct is for anyone to suggest that this SSW is a bust for the UK, as the one in 2019 was. Far too early to make those sorts of conclusions. 

[ALL ABOARD]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

There are signs of that gap to our north gaining traction now. A parting of the waves with the main section of the pv on the Siberian side. 

Yes definetly the effect of the SSW look at the vertical WAA appearing in the Atlantic.... 

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That is an absolute stonker of a chart. 

Looks dry to me.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That is an absolute stonker of a chart. 

need the EC to start showing signs, or it won't happen,

[Griff]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looks dry to me.

Probably helps to be in with a shout though, perhaps? 

[Battleground Snow]

Huge Arctic high, need that low in the Atlantic to disapate though.

Does this mirror the EC strat charts?

Is the remaining energy in the Atlantic what @feb1991blizzard was warning of?

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Eastbourneguy]

Did somebody order some -AO descending down from the strat?

[daz_4]

You can't say SSW is not having an impact but it seems Europe somehow once again manages to end up in the middle of nothing on this run. Slight shift westwards and we would be in the game but will we get it? Not feeling that optimistic after reading the strat thread. Seems like the hype of days past has quickly dissapeared.