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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

bluearmy

By bluearmy
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Bartlett High Aficionado

Bartlett High

Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
Posted
4 minutes ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

Is this low pressure on Friday worth watching as a potential snow event? Its not the first time GFS has highlighted this as a possibility.

It really depends on how that low from the northwest interacts with us. Whether it keeps the energy, if a new low forms out of it, or whether it decays before it moves into England. Also how far east it gets.

I don't know if it is that well supported though, could be a non-event for more southern areas. Something to watch at least.

Screenshot 2021-01-04 at 22.56.43.png

Ignore! Will be mainly dry and chilly rest of week and becoming slightly mildr next week.

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Trom Enthusiast

Trom

Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
Posted
3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Different model outputs but one thing that remains constant a large expanse of deeper cold further east in Europe absent now and is reason for easterly underperforming.

21E9B902-78EB-4D2D-97E7-14F0B07CB808.thumb.png.7b9a3e6c5f020b5cfb084142ed937c3c.png

Doesn't that show a large pool of cold forming further east?  Are you trying to say that up to now we haven't had a cold pool to tap into with an easterly but that's changing?  If so that's not how your post reads.

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Griff said:

Keeps being mentioned today as a possible precursor to cold UK... 

Iberian high not a bad thing if there's deep cold air dropping south over eastern Europe and Atlantic trough stalling out west, it is the precursor from such a situation that is an empirical route to a Scandi high. Hints from both GFS and EC that could lead to it.

Seems a battle could develop between emerging zonal energy over Atlantic in response to La Nina / strong Pacific jet extension and growing cold to our NE, perhaps as a result of the SSW. Which wins out over UK next few weeks could be nail biting ...

Edited by Nick F
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
  • Author
Posted

Plenty of signs that tomorrow’s extended output will be of interest ...... it may not come to anything but at least we may have some nice stuff to look at on the screen ! 

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, Trom said:

Doesn't that show a large pool of cold forming further east?  Are you trying to say that up to now we haven't had a cold pool to tap into with an easterly but that's changing?  If so that's not how your post reads.

Yes, and no we haven’t had a cold source been story this whole winter so far. I’m not saying we’re going to see another easterly but if we did it’s likely it would have much more bite to it.

See currently we have air circulating into Europe from North Africa which is much warmer than average.

4CB3CA01-E1BB-426C-A74D-184663969292.thumb.png.6bd7f44a82568f4af8ac7dd53989e0a1.png> 4054170B-A778-4286-B08C-D48C1929843A.thumb.png.8278140dcd46d25baefadbbdec7ec806.png

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Plenty of signs that tomorrow’s extended output will be of interest ...... it may not come to anything but at least we may have some nice stuff to look at on the screen ! 

Something like this

B9320CA5-1667-4D88-824C-1F7C46DFD04C.png

06307006-6EAC-4485-9A2A-FD91AAB682A2.png

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Plenty of signs that tomorrow’s extended output will be of interest ...... it may not come to anything but at least we may have some nice stuff to look at on the screen ! 

Already there as far as I'm concerned

gfsnh-0-324.png

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Plenty of signs that tomorrow’s extended output will be of interest ...... it may not come to anything but at least we may have some nice stuff to look at on the screen ! 

Which stuff do you mean it looks like a toppler scenario to me going forward just a few cold shots,nothing prolonged 

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Chasbrown Enthusiast

Chasbrown

Posted
  • Location: Gatwick
  • Location: Gatwick
Posted
1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Well not clearly but many are assuming we are in for a very cold January,I just don't see it myself

Early days yet, Luke. Still plenty of time to get colder. 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The para showing unexpected levels of continuity post T300 .....

hey, maybe on to something, it has got 127 levels up to 80km now.  ECM op stops at T240, so well worth keeping a ‘weather eye’ on long range GFS //, I think, because good resolution all the way up to the strat is key in these circumstances.

Edited by Mike Poole
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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Which stuff do you mean it looks like a toppler scenario to me going forward just a few cold shots,nothing prolonged 

Are you not seeing my posts? One run but isn't every run just one run? 

gfsnh-0-336.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Age old problem i flagged up possible earlier - shortwave energy southern Greenland / iceland is preventing stellar runs.

And voila!!!  - as soon as it disappears clean ridge builds North and the -16c isotherm is knocking on heavens doorstep.

image.thumb.png.f6a737df8647ae215fe46f51b552ee21.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Trom Enthusiast

Trom

Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Yes, and no we haven’t had a cold source been story this whole winter so far. I’m not saying we’re going to see another easterly but if we did it’s likely it would have much more bite to it.

See currently we have air circulating into Europe from North Africa which is much warmer than average.

4CB3CA01-E1BB-426C-A74D-184663969292.thumb.png.6bd7f44a82568f4af8ac7dd53989e0a1.png> 4054170B-A778-4286-B08C-D48C1929843A.thumb.png.8278140dcd46d25baefadbbdec7ec806.png

Cool that what I thought you meant but I was confused with the wording.  Yes I'm hoping for an Easterly as it now has much better prospects with that cold to the east.  Whilst it's not showing in the models, I think we will have to put up with volatility in the near and mid term as the models get to grip with the trop impact of the SSW.  So fingers crossed.

Edited by Trom
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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

hey, maybe on to something, it has got 127 levels up to 80km now.  ECM op stops at T240, so well worth keeping a ‘weather eye’ on long range GFS //, I think. 

Para is very 1947 esq. Somebody had to say it lol. 

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Rollo Aficionado

Rollo

Posted
  • Location: Ponteland
  • Location: Ponteland
Posted
1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Well not clearly but many are assuming we are in for a very cold January,I just don't see it myself

First of all please remember an SSW guarantees nothing but it gives us a 66% chance of a decent cold spell. , it is fair to say that the current cold spell has been totally disappointing save for the folk who have decent elevation but some of the posts at the moment can be so depressing other more optimistic might be persuaded to give the site a rest. 

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