Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Griff]

Differences at 180...

 

[Daniel*]

Look to our north.

[Griff]

Seems to be a pattern across gfsp runs today to un-flatten the pattern, goes milder but then potentially nuts in FI... Yes I know usual disclaimers apply. 

 

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Look to our north.

15th Jan fgs

[MKN]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

What cold spell. It hasn't happened. 

Ok the ever so slightly cooler than average spell which should have been a decent cold spell given the synoptic pattern weve had.

[IDO]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Differences at 180...

 

There was a small cluster with the gfsP outcome in the 12z ensembles. So not beyond reason, but overall the main cluster followed the hi-res runs.

The 18z shows how the Arctic high impacts on the tPV flow:

18z>12z>

On the 18z it directs the lower heights to the US, whereas on the 12z a split flow (Europe and US). Hence the entropy post-d12.

[frosty ground]

[Griff]

I've heard mention of 3 daughter PV lobes as a possible outcome, cut shots fired over downwelling etc... 

[bluearmy]

The para should find it easier to amplify further north but the op has had a decent stab at a scandi ridge - it couldn’t gain traction against the same vortex across the pole that was there yesterday evening. That’s not on the para 

EDIT: the gfs looks like it might split that vortex in two and allow more amplification to get through with the arctic ridge beyond 

Edited January 4, 2021 by bluearmy

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

15th Jan fgs

Thanks for this informative contribution. The point is here models are struggling to storm westerlies through which is perhaps expected, while no substantial blocking is expected perhaps we can get a finger of high pressure without getting blasted away to keep things on the colder side. 
 

You can see more blocking emerging on this run over Arctic and elsewhere that’s SSW helping out.

[Tim Bland]

[Howie]

The Iberian high is a real spoiler 

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Howie said:

The Iberian high is a real spoiler 

Keeps being mentioned today as a possible precursor to cold UK... 

Edit: rather high near or over uk

Edited January 4, 2021 by Griff

[ribster]

18 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

What cold spell. It hasn't happened. 

Depends where you are, been 9 days and counting here. Models seem to suggest another 4/5 days of the same, very nice ta!

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Keeps being mentioned today as a possible precursor to cold UK... 

If that was the case we would have a cold UK every Winter.

[Howie]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Keeps being mentioned today as a possible precursor to cold UK... 

I really do hope so

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

If that was the case we would have a cold UK every Winter.

Don't we always well at least IF this happened we couldn't moan about lack of European cold to tap into. 

To clarify, I was referring to a given set of conditions Marco P was referring to regarding SSWs. Lots of variables, probability low of course. 

Edited January 4, 2021 by Griff

[Cryosphere.]

50 minutes ago, IDO said:

...it is complicated, but I would expect some colder shots at least even in the worse case scenario. The BFTE is what is up for grabs and that maybe less likely. Greenland blocking is my call if we do get a good coupling. We should know more by next week...

Guys i think..we have been somewhat... Hoodwinked again, How many times have been here...? More times than ive had hot dinners. Winter after winter we watch in rejoice and anguish in what cards the models will deal deal us. Most of us looking for something colder; sometimes just a flake will do..But if im honest and i include myself in this...THE FULL HOUSE!!. Well many of us seem to think that this current SSW was our trump card or wild card if you wish..It is not and never was..; yes it can and often does push polar air to mid-latitudes as we know..where? we can stipulate..when? we can speculate..its mother nature at it best if i may say. Sometimes we put all our eggs in one basket...and that basket always seems to be ten baskets away.

[Anthony Burden]

GFS pub run showing next week up to 216 hrs a mostly cold scenario,high pressure trying to ridge in

while low pressure remains to the east.Every body keen to see if and when SSW will have some effects 

on the charts .My take you will not be waiting to long.

[Daniel*]

Different model outputs but one thing that remains constant a large expanse of deeper cold further east in Europe absent now and is reason for easterly underperforming.

[Griff]

Just now, Cryosphere. said:

Guys i think..we have been somewhat... Hoodwinked again, How many times have been here...? More times than ive had hot dinners. Winter after winter we watch in rejoice and anguish in what cards the models will deal deal us. Most of us looking for something colder; sometimes just a flake will do..But if im honest and i include myself in this...THE FULL HOUSE!!. Well many of us seem to think that this current SSW was our trump card or wild card if you wish..It is not and never was..; yes it can and often does push polar air to mid-latitudes as we know..where? we can stipulate..when? we can speculate..its mother nature at it best if i may say. Sometimes we put all our eggs in one basket...and that basket always seems to be ten baskets away.

Far too soon to tell, but yes on this given set of runs nothing great, looks like the pub has gone bust in lockdown tonight, but so much volatility, keep the faith!

[sukayuonsensnow]

Is this low pressure on Friday worth watching as a potential snow event? Its not the first time GFS has highlighted this as a possibility.

It really depends on how that low from the northwest interacts with us. Whether it keeps the energy, if a new low forms out of it, or whether it decays before it moves into England. Also how far east it gets.

I don't know if it is that well supported though, could be a non-event for more southern areas. Something to watch at least.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Look at the deep cold in SE Europe...a clear sign of a warming world sadly.....oh wasn’t that 20c earlier  

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

Age old problem i flagged up possible earlier - shortwave energy southern Greenland / iceland is preventing stellar runs.

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

Is this low pressure on Friday worth watching as a potential snow event? Its not the first time GFS has highlighted this as a possibility.

It really depends on how that low from the northwest interacts with us. Whether it keeps the energy, if a new low forms out of it, or whether it decays before it moves into England. Also how far east it gets.

I don't know if it is that well supported though, could be a non-event for more southern areas. Something to watch at least.

GFS snow charts.

how reliable