Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[fromey]

Here is the NAO and AO forecast, I think someone on here (although I can’t remember) posted that a few runs had gone above positive (only a couple) but today it’s  the NAO that only makes it to neutral, the AO a couple of runs go really negative!! Now theses are only forecasts but it just shows how volatile the current situation is. 
many more twists and turns to come.

[southbank]

interesting the GFS 12 z has slightly warmer 850 over the north CONUS and coldest in Russia , yesterday it was other way round , maybe less thermal gradient to give the jet some some fuel in its northern arm?

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

GFS a little more amplified over Southern Greenland?  Northerly further down the line?

Yes looks it, could be getting interesting... 

[radiohead]

12Z GFS  at 120 has more southeastward movement of energy than on the 06Z.... UKMO having none of it though.

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

As said many times look East....

UKMO 120

Look north!

 

 

Follow the Sandal!

 

[Kasim Awan]

Mild blip? Nowhere to be seen.

[Weathizard]

UKMO 144  

[southbank]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Look north!

 

 

Follow the Sandal!

 

lol - i was watching that on Netflix for the first time in 30 years  

 

Back to models thats certainly encouraging from METO , can we really see some disruption here #???

[SMU]

I will take that.

Bitter! 

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Mild blip? Nowhere to be seen.

I was just thinking that. 

 

Vastly diff from the UKMO, ECM will be closer the UKMO than GFS no doubt 

Edited January 4, 2021 by Ali1977

[fromey]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Mild blip? Nowhere to be seen.

Do you think we could call this a transition phase?

[Griff]

Just now, fromey said:

Do you think we could call this a transition phase?

We're cool, however you wish to identify  

But seriously something is up... 

[Mucka]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

I will take that.

Bitter! 

It has been consistent lately with tis sort of outcome and if that were the transition. surface cold frost and fog, to a more amplified pattern I would take it.

Still prefer GFS though being in the NW

[topo]

Quite impressive difference between GFS and UKMO at 144hr..

UKMO run with almost 0 850s in Oslo seemed a massive outlier 2 days ago...

[SLEETY]

UKMO showing the way to proper cold at 144 hours,lets see some consistency from it tomorrow.

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, fromey said:

Do you think we could call this a transition phase?

12z is very similar to 06z by Sunday, certainly temp wise (see below for 6z) warm up has always been shown for middle of the month (240hrs) so it’s a bit early in the run to be celebrating ...

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I was just thinking that. 

 

Vastly diff from the UKMO, ECM will be closer the UKMO than GFS no doubt 

UKMO is the odd one out here.

[Griff]

This could be good

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

We're cool, however you wish to identify  

But seriously something is up... 

Looking like the models are starting to react to the SSW

[southbank]

the elephant in the room is that despite all the computing power and investment over the years we cant get model agreement even 4/5 days out in the 21th Century !!!! i mean 120 hours of weather and we have different outcomes showing - have we really progress from the hard work of the like of John Holmes from maybe 2-3 day to 4/5 days ?

[TSNWK]

Personally for the bottom half of the uk we have just had our warmest day of the week today topping out 4.2c will trend down for rest of week.. but a little too slow.. 

below is GFS tm2 for Sunday 4,5 across the board - Saturday it looked like an ice day to me over central southern England.

ps uk144 has cold surface boarding on colder than GFs I would say.

 

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

UKMO showing the way to proper cold at 144 hours,lets see some consistency from it tomorrow.

Looks like the cold is retreating to me? 

[Paul_1978]

7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Look north!

 

 

 

The low looks like it’s going to track down the North Sea coast in this run instead of easterly into Norway? Thus giving us a northerly early next week instead of something more westerly influenced. 

[Scott Ingham]

So.... mild blip...mild even at all?

Models confused 

Ive seen enough here at 150 to know there is a chance of the battoeground/slider event around the 10th give or take a day or 2 i spoke about.

Were trending back to continued cold. So again. Talking with certainty about the end to cold is very premature yet. 

If that sharpens forget mild blip think snowy blip as discussed 3 days ago

You probably rhought i was bonkers going against the ensembles but sometimes models cant see what us humans can see

 

Still on the fence however. Its wrong to proclaim it will be cold with all this uncertainty.

id be a hypocrite after sitting on the fence when it was mild

Edited January 4, 2021 by Scott Ingham

[radiohead]

GFS 168 Snow for Scotland. Rain further south.

Edited January 4, 2021 by radiohead