Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[johnholmes]

6 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Well, only the starting data is actual data. +0h is actual data.
However as the model progresses, the forecasted previous step will be the input for the next step and so on. Every development we see at +96, +144, +240 is the result not only of actual data, but actual data + forecasted 'data' in previous steps.

So, having the reversal of zonal winds available as a measured phenomenon (and not only at the 'technical' SSW, but across the layers) instead of a forecast, should intuitively make the model outcome more reliable, right?

CWN you may be right as it is over 25 years since I was working. I'll have to have a look at the latest Met O data on their web site to see if they give the necessary information.

[Kasim Awan]

Much improved ICON 12Z 

More pronounced Greenland ridge with a more southerly jet, very good profile to our north.

 

[Battleground Snow]

It ends with a little wedge in griceland. Positive start to the 12z runs, just a hunch but I dont't think the mild blip will last too long.

 

 

Edited January 4, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It ends with a little wedge in griceland. Positive start to the 12z runs, just a hunch but I won't think the mild blip will last too long.

 

 

The ICON almost completely erradicates mild weather. Only the 11th has a daily CET above 3.5C.

Edited January 4, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

The ICON almost completely erradicates mild weather. Only the 11th has a CET above 3.5C.

Yes, I should rephrase, not mild but less cold.

[TSNWK]

9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Whoever decided to release the ICON before all the other models is a marketing genius  

Certainly some differences between this morning and this afternoons ICON, more forcing on the Low and an increase in pressure around southern GL, most important those low heights over Europe might serve to stop the high sinking back over us.

Agree.. icon punches above weight as 1st out.. however an example of some creditability for me was yesterday morning whereby it did go with UKM and ECM whilst GFS did not change until a  later run.  So certainly not without merit.

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Yes, I should rephrase, not mild but less cold.

These macro model upgrades are a sign there is a background factor at work reducing westerly components. Strong argument to suggest this could be due to a multitude of factors. This does not guarantee a slight waning of the -NAO profile though.

[SMU]

Seems we might snatch cold from the jaws of mild after yesterday snatching very mild from cold...

Looking for upgrades today!! Especially in Fridays snow potential as The slider from the North interacts with the Energy from the East over the UK!

Remember SSW = 0 Easterly momentum !

Edited January 4, 2021 by Steve Murr

[Jackski4]

Is the ICON on to something here? Have the models settled down now? Today’s the day of the SSW I’ve seen stranger things happen 

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Seems we might snatch cold from the jaws of mild after yesterday snatching very mild from cold...

Looking for upgrades today!! Especially in Fridays snow potential as The slider from the North interacts with the Energy from the East over the UK!

Remember SSW = 0 Easterly momentum !

Hope so mate ...

Got everything crossed for upgrades,much the same as you..

[Drifter]

Wow, certainly an eye opening Icon - it might be that we never actually lose the cold at all...

[Tim Bland]

Icon was slated the other day when it went flat,  now it is king if it didn’t come out first it would hardly get a look in just like JMA, Navgem & GEM etc hardly ever get a mention. I’m Sticking to UKMO and then ECM, with a cursory view of GFS for entertainment value 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Icon is a big improvement,and I think yesterday was a mere bad day at the office...we will call today...THE DAY THE MODELS STRUCK BACK..sounds like a disaster film We are getting to that stage where the output is gonna go crazy as those winds reversals drop down into the Atmosphere..some are calling a Vortex drop into Asia and Europe, lots still at play,and as Steve M says there ain't a lot of Eastwards momentum. Monday night fever is upon us..

[southbank]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon was slated the other day when it went flat,  now it is king if it didn’t come out first it would hardly get a look in just like JMA, Navgem & GEM etc hardly ever get a mention. I’m Sticking to UKMO and then ECM, with a cursory view of GFS for entertainment value 

i tend to agree but it had its moment in the sun think 2018/2019 winter  - when another SSW left too much energy in the GIN area and all other models and meto Uk where calling cold into NY this model flatten the pattern - so just sometimes may come up with the goods

 

[Weathizard]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon was slated the other day when it went flat,  now it is king if it didn’t come out first it would hardly get a look in just like JMA, Navgem & GEM etc hardly ever get a mention. I’m Sticking to UKMO and then ECM, with a cursory view of GFS for entertainment value 

Respect your opinion tim you are entitled to it but this is the model discussion thread and of course the ICON is a relatively poor model compared to the ECM/GFS/UKM but it’s still worth using for analytical reasons.

It gets posted a lot because it’s the first model out for every set of runs, not because any of us take it as gospel  

Edited January 4, 2021 by Weathizard

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo at 96 - looks a marginal improvement in amplification.

GFS added for 96

Edited January 4, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, southbank said:

i tend to agree but it had its moment in the sun think 2018/2019 winter  - when another SSW left too much energy in the GIN area and all other models and meto Uk where calling cold into NY this model flatten the pattern - so just sometimes may come up with the goods

 

I’m sure all models have had a great prediction at some point. Even a blind squirrel finds his nuts occasionally! Jokes aside I hope it’s right, but until ECM & UKMO come onboard the snow train I won’t be buying it 

[Mucka]

UKMO sticking to its guns, something has to give soon.

GFS below

Edited January 4, 2021 by Mucka

[Kasim Awan]

I wouldn't go overboard just yet, the Azores high is looking rather ominous which may scupper surface conditions for a couple of days. Going forward the model shift should theoretically be evident on the 12z.

[Weathizard]

Interesting drive of low heights underneath the high, could serve to prop the high up long enough for a wedge? Also significant is the increase in that high pressure in the US, could encourage a link up

[Anthony Burden]

Met office 09/to 18th Jan have added confidence is low,that to me tells the story.
As I said in my blog not certain about this westerly warm up and unsettled spell,

my take high pressure cold and frosty.We shall see in the mean time cold with 

some snow showers all week.

[Weathizard]

UKMO and ICON quite similar at day 5?

[SMU]

As said many times look East....

UKMO 120

[Tim Bland]

18 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Seems we might snatch cold from the jaws of mild after yesterday snatching very mild from cold...

Looking for upgrades today!! Especially in Fridays snow potential as The slider from the North interacts with the Energy from the East over the UK!

Remember SSW = 0 Easterly momentum !

Still no sign of that low brining anything to the east / south east, looks very light and patchy away from the north / northwest. ironically we want some eastward momentum for our region on Friday!

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

UKMO sticking to its guns, something has to give soon.

GFS below

GFS a little more amplified over Southern Greenland?  Northerly further down the line?