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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


bluearmy
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

The gfs/p has been trialed or is under trials and will take over the gfs,we don't know the verication stat's yet,well i don't anyway,hope that helps.

 

Assuming the new GFS is version 16 then it is verifying to the same level as the GEM at day 6.

 

cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.03f219f6b58a6f5c04a444b83333167e.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

GFSP to my eye showing consistency as I've been boring people all week, interesting to hear alternative perspectives, I suspect I'm becoming obsessed... 

Another satisfactory day of model watching here. 

gfsnh-1-258.png

gfsnh-0-258.png

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

I already hear them birds chirping

spacer.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

I am happy in the fact that both the gfs and gfs/p are more amplified than previous,let's see if we can get those amps further north in future runs☺️

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Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: snow!!!!
  • Location: Stourbridge, West Midlands
51 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes the upper flow is NW/W,but there are still a lot of high latitude blocking around Greenland>Urals.

Could you expand on the impact of that please

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Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl

Whatever way you look at it those runs were bad news for us today.Let's hope things look better in a week/10 days time

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, O'Maille80 said:

Whatever way you look at it those runs were bad news for us today.Let's hope things look better in a week/10 days time

Yup.

Last night's pub run seems but a distant memory.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

This is what will probably happen after the ssw filters down . Same year in year out now . Terrible model outputs today

8819DC7A-8CE4-4506-86FE-9793C92C9583.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
13 minutes ago, Dibdabbers said:

Could you expand on the impact of that please

Hi 

the green contour lines are the upper winds and as you can see from the black arrow the winds are NW towards the UK,i have circled where the trop pv is located and is as far away from the UK as possible which is a good thing when normally it is situated over Greenland,the L i have put is lower height's to the SE of the UK which in turn signals a trough/low in that area,the H is for higher heights(higher pressure)over Greenland and towards the Urals,the Urals is in the Norwegian,Barents sea

610day_03.thumb.gif.c7094f36762bb824b6c083fb12831893.gif

the impact is still unclear but higher height's into the pole(N pole) are far better than lower height's up there as this would drive more of a westerly influence from the Atlantic into the UK ,i hope this helps.☺️ 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks
9 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

This is what will probably happen after the ssw filters down . Same year in year out now . Terrible model outputs today

8819DC7A-8CE4-4506-86FE-9793C92C9583.png

That’s about as bad as it gets for us, a supercharged jet firing straight into us!! Thanks god it’s so far away!!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

 

26 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

This is what will probably happen after the ssw filters down . Same year in year out now . Terrible model outputs today

8819DC7A-8CE4-4506-86FE-9793C92C9583.png

image.thumb.png.a906c6715f20fbfa03651edf32a36876.png

Jan 2013. The above saw a red warning in wales for heavy snow and blizzard like conditions. While it does infuse the jet it doesnt put a complete end to a UK cold spell, was also off the back of a split SSW.

 

 

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

I’m taking a two week break hopefully something more interesting will be on show especially for me in south east England I haven’t seen a snowflake yet...

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
14 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

 

image.thumb.png.a906c6715f20fbfa03651edf32a36876.png

Jan 2013. The above saw a red warning in wales for heavy snow and blizzard like conditions. While it does infuse the jet it doesnt put a complete end to a UK cold spell, was also off the back of a split SSW.

 

 

image.png

Yes similar situation here  - turbocharged jet heading straight for Africa

 

 

gfsnh-5-384.png

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Posted
  • Location: Port Of Ness.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather in winter
  • Location: Port Of Ness.
15 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Absolutely @MATTWOLVES

we can't have cold days everyday of the winter it's fact,even the best winters have there mild moments and sometimes they don't get going until the latter third of January>

i see nothing remotely zonal in the models at present,IE:-west to east full on

look at the gfs and gfs/p tonight in motion...

anim_www2.thumb.gif.2b46b4b35ff089342cc309319f74a149.gifanim_vyh6.thumb.gif.f981e5d3e14fb9214d543d3268a753a5.gif

none of them showing a pv located over Greenland,patience peeps☺️

let's just enjoy this cold spell with a few wintry hazzards along the way this week and see what crops up eh.

BTW @Snowman.,great analysis there and it shows you that you cannot take fl seriously and things can and will change quickly especially with an SSW on our tails.

 

 

I agree,nothing remotely zonal but same results...wet and windy,mild with colder interludes.No freeze up,no persistent or recurring cold cycles.Resetting to normal notwithstanding the SSW.I don’t like it either.

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Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales

Dam I must of lost about 1 hour of my life reading through these posts. Up and down again like a Yo Yo. 

I think I shall sit down and put some comedy retro into my Beetamax and watch the Goodies  because they make more sense than the Snow starved I want it in my garden and not giving it to anyone. Sometimes this group is really biased. I feel for the Mods for removing posts. Can we just stick to Model Disscusion and not its going to Snow inmbg... Its cold and its locked in for at least another week or more. 

OK it's not 2010 nirvana but it's better than the dross  we had last year... Sorry mods we'll of topic but I give up reading one liners at times. 

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

Icon at 180.

Heights starting to pop up over the Arctic.

Amplification towards Greenland once more. Could this mild blip be only a few days? Here's hoping. Deep cold into Eastern Scandinavia

12z 180 also attached for comparison

iconnh-0-180 (7).png

 

iconnh-1-180 (2).png

iconnh-0-180 (6).png

Edited by Battleground Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Very difficult to trust any output when there is such a huge divergence between models by just 96h, UKMO, GFS very different.

UW96-21.GIF?04-05gfs-0-96.png

Sure if it was 144 you wouldn't think huge difference, but very rare to see that much difference after such a short period into the run

By 144 they may was well be for different dates.

UN144-21.GIF?04-05gfsnh-0-144.png

 

GFS 168 is another improvement over 18z. Note the thin wedge of heights developing to the N and the better upstream amplification and of course the pattern is backed further W

gfsnh-0-168.png

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Very difficult to trust any output when there is such a huge divergence between models at just 96h, UKMO, GFS very different.

UN96-21.GIF?04-05gfs-0-96.png

 

Agreed, the only trend they have in common is the increased Arctic heights squeezing cold out towards the lower latitudes

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