Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Griff]

Similar to previous run.. 

[Allseasons-Si]

-8's starting to push into the north,a lot better than the 12z

at least it is a step in the right direction.

[Mucka]

GFSp sticking with the idea of keeping Atlantic pressure high and close to or over the UK, that would certainly keep things cold at the surface.

I haven't really rated it so far, it seems quite inconsistent and no great improvement over the current GFS, but since my hopes of the deep Scandi trough crashed and burned I guess this would be the next best option from where we are, frost and fog, especially if we are lucky enough to get snow cover. Needs to be further East (damn it said W) to prevent the mild NW flow and stagnate the air.

Edited January 3, 2021 by Mucka

[DanDorsetUK]

Is Marco trying to be cryptic in his tweet just then regarding the sea ice with a wink?

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs/p is starting to re amplify the pattern with WAA into W Greenland.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Hi moving north to Greenland. Going to be a good finish I think. 

[Vikos]

Some has to explain me why there are 2 GFS Models simultaneously with different outcome. That’s nonsense in my eyes. I could cherrypick every 6h to which my gusto goes. *confused*

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, Rapodo said:

Is Marco trying to be cryptic in his tweet just then regarding the sea ice with a wink?

No, simply just pointing out the lack of sea ice this year compared to previous years. Nothing to do with model output.

[Griff]

And as previously, very tantalising just a bit further east with cold

Edited January 3, 2021 by Griff

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Vikos said:

Some has to explain me why there are 2 GFS Models simultaneously with different outcome. That’s nonsense in my eyes. I could cherrypick every 6h to which my gusto goes. *confused*

Quick search reveals increased resolution, parallel will replace current 

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Some has to explain me why there are 2 GFS Models simultaneously with different outcome. That’s nonsense in my eyes. I could cherrypick every 6h to which my gusto goes. *confused*

The models are continually updated and new updates are trialled as Parallel runs to the original.

They are sure to differ just as each ensemble member in a  suite will differ though not for the same reasons, ensembles start with slightly modified starting data I believe.

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Mucka

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs and gfs/p are very zonal,...NOT!!!

these could end up very well indeed.

[Vikos]

Just now, Griff said:

Quick search reveals increased resolution, parallel will replace current 

This replacement ever happens? For years now there are 2 gfs runs... Why don’t we all agree then to use ONLY GFSp?

[Uncertainty]

Near vertical tilt to the jet... We are trending towards another ridge building North day 9-11. Current launch site looks just west of the   UK. Strengthen this signal a bit more and we can start thinking about where this ridge is going...

[Mike Poole]

GFS //doing the splits at T222:

But that time is beyond uncertainty at earlier times, so I guess we’ll be back tomorrow morning, or if your an afternoon model person like i am, then laters...

Edited January 3, 2021 by Mike Poole

[sorepaw1]

I would say low confidence in the models past 4 days .

Is better than having high confidence in milder weather returning after 4 days if you prefer wintery weather. 

Even the professionals are struggling past 5 days.

Here it is 1.oC with scattered snow showers and ice forming 

Pictures tomorrow in the regional thread.

[ianmm94]

Both GFS's are slowly heading towards scandi heights from what i'm seeing

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Vikos said:

This replacement ever happens? For years now there are 2 gfs runs... Why don’t we all agree then to use ONLY GFSp?

You're missing the version number - they change as the parallel replaces existing. 

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

This replacement ever happens? For years now there are 2 gfs runs... Why don’t we all agree then to use ONLY GFSp?

 

The same reason we don't all just use ECM and look at the ensembles

The more data the better.

Edited January 3, 2021 by Mucka

[ancientsolar]

 
It's this picture GFS 12z 141 hours , it's vastly different from the previous run,
- the low above Iceland seems to be more Northward, and it has been in very different positions in the last 24 hours+  ~ it seems to be slowing down the approach of the high pressure as well as allowing the low pressure to come from Spain (Iberia?) This latter thing seems to be a new feature not in the previous 3 GFS models, the said low pressure was directed more across Central Europe.. 

I think this is the 3 way battle ground that is still on going and to be observed  
(I have very little knowledge about what i'm talking, but I am seeing the comparisons from previous runs, feed back is very very welcome! )

[Allseasons-Si]

 

5 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Some has to explain me why there are 2 GFS Models simultaneously with different outcome. That’s nonsense in my eyes. I could cherrypick every 6h to which my gusto goes. *confused*

The gfs/p has been trialed or is under trials and will take over the gfs,we don't know the verication stat's yet,well i don't anyway,hope that helps.

[Griff]

1 minute ago, ianmm94 said:

Both GFS's are slowly heading towards scandi heights from what i'm seeing

258 was the magic number on the last gfsp, just optimistically looking for trends here

[bluearmy]

gfs 18z is going to struggle to drive much of a ridge against that ! 
 

 i

[ianmm94]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

258 was the magic number on the last gfsp, just optimistically looking for trends here

Just need that Russian high on the parallel run to disappear next

[Mucka]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

gfs 18z is going to struggle to drive much of a ridge against that ! 
 

 i

 

"That" is my busted mid month(ish) deep Scandi trough since our blocking pattern got shunted E. Half of it (PV) gets forced W and the other half  S instead of it all being drawn SW and giving us deep cold. 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Mucka