Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Bricriu]

2 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

I don’t think it’s always a guarantee that America going cold results us in a mild westerly regime?

Not  always, but likely. Anyway it seems from his follow up reply to IDO, i might  have misunderstood the wider implications of the TPV moving to North America.  So you could well be right.

[Scott Ingham]

37 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That ec modelling became more amplified after the tech ssw began ......

Yeah thats right this is what i remember it took the ECM time to forecast the conditions on the ground but once it picked up on the wave it was more accurate from distance

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

The red dotted lines are the areas of high pressure, the green line is the direction of travel/wind

They're above average pressure for that particular area at this time of year - anomalies the red ones, not above average pressure relative to the surrounding air.

[Mike Poole]

11 minutes ago, Griff said:

Parallel is also having a pause for thought... Marginally slower pushing west to east. 

Don’t have a problem with that T132:

Let’s see where it goes from here...

Edited January 3, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Don’t have a problem with that T132:

Let’s see where it goes fro here...

I'm greedy and hoping for Greenland amplification and eventually a scandi high... Not asking too much?  

[Griff]

Presumably flat gfs in FI, doesn't deserve a mention? 

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Griff said:

I'm greedy and hoping for Greenland amplification and eventually a scandi high... Not asking too much?  

I think there’s an 80% chance that will happen eventually, @Griff, but not necessarily on this run.  

[bluearmy]

19 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I will post these,...and i don't need to say much.

The 8/14 is indeed like the ec day 10 anoms.  That’s significant as that noaa cpc is straight naefs day 11 today with no ec input 

[Scott Ingham]

19 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I will post these,...and i don't need to say much.

That 8-14 day chart is a vast improvement away from the previous one

Gone is the west based NAO! 

These still give me confidence that the models are struggling as op runs dont look anytging like these and as john holmes and mushymanrob would say it is very rare they are wrong!

[Mucka]

Just now, Griff said:

Presumably flat gfs in FI, doesn't deserve a mention? 

Not really as we have been looking at flatter in FI for a while, just keep an eye out for improved amplification later.

It is probably better to concentrate on the cold we have and how we can eek out the most from it for now while hoping to extend it as much as possible and this run is a small improvement in that regard.

 

[chionomaniac]

I wonder whether we’ll see one of those scenarios where each day the return to milder conditions is delayed a day. Wouldn’t surprise me.

Also, the models have all picked up on a more zonal pattern over the last 24 hours. Another thing that is quite common is that signal is somewhat overblown and it takes a few days for the pendulum to be dampened and the real picture emerges.

[Griff]

GFSP 150 is far more interesting even if it's not supported... 

[Eskimo]

Definitely a signal from the models for high pressure to build south of the UK. Hopefully it's just temporary and doesn't turn into, you know, that name that's forbidden. 


 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Eskimo

[Bartlett High]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Definitely a signal from the models for high pressure to build south of the UK. Hopefully it's just temporary and doesn't, you know, that name that's forbidden. 


 

[DanDorsetUK]

La nina returns to weak status.

[Allseasons-Si]

Ridge starting to appear now on the gfs.

[Howie]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Definitely a signal from the models for high pressure to build south of the UK. Hopefully it's just temporary and doesn't turn into, you know, that name that's forbidden. 


 

I saw this last week and hoped it would die down but of course it didn't smh 

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I wonder whether we’ll see one of those scenarios where each day the return to milder conditions is delayed a day. Wouldn’t surprise me.

Also, the models have all picked up on a more zonal pattern over the last 24 hours. Another thing that is quite common is that signal is somewhat overblown and it takes a few days for the pendulum to be dampened and the real picture emerges.

Could be, at least for the surface cold as I think the models are too progressive with the Westerly flow and flattening of high pressure over the UK since they dropped the idea of the trough dropping S

Edited January 3, 2021 by Mucka

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

That 8-14 day chart is a vast improvement away from the previous one

Gone is the west based NAO! 

These still give me confidence that the models are struggling as op runs dont look anytging like these and as john holmes and mushymanrob would say it is very rare they are wrong!

Yep, got to focus on the ensemble output as the ops are trying to flip a chocolate-coated cod fillet in a pancake at the moment. Because of the SSW.

Edited January 3, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Griff]

I should have held on to the Ω symbol a little longer... 

 

[Griff]

Going up... 

[ancientsolar]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

I should have held on to the Ω symbol a little longer... 

 

Looks more like Jonny Bravo dancing  

[Vikos]

Current model watching is like throwing but instead of numbers there are d10 charts of every major model. 
I will not be surprised if delayeritis majoris starts soon (not only cold spells get delayed or minimised)

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

I should have held on to the Ω symbol a little longer... 

 

You might need to hold on to it a bit longer

[Scott Ingham]

20 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Imagine if GFS pub run wasn't just GFS pub run, and was in fact the first correction toward a better sustained Easterly and Winter pattern

This extended easterly looked like it was trending slightly on the 12z. Sort of a middle ground where the pattern flattens too much then settles on a middkw ground.

This is your middle ground. Azores High doesnt quite flatten and theres just enough room over the top of the High for lower pressuers to run up over the high then head South east on the jet to.

Low pressure into uk - battleground/slider period i spoke about around the 9th to 11th.

Something i will keep an eye on the ensembles for