Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[SLEETY]

Poor now this run, let's hope we get some snow this week before the pattern flattens out and we go back to milder maritime polar air, disappointed, but UK always on the boundary between mild and cold in winter

 

[AWD]

Quite a noticable warm temperature anomaly over Canada/Alaska.  Always of the opinion that helps with colder weather over Western Europe, guess we will see in the coming months.

[mother nature rocks]

Liking the push up toward Griceland!! Northerly inbound??? @192/216??

[markw2680]

Is it poor run or a good run? Haven’t a clue after reading some of the comments, think I’ll have a look for myself from now on before looking on here lol

[sebastiaan1973]

Just now, Trom said:

Yes but the algorithms have relatively little training data on these events.  So in my opinion the jury's out with regards to the effects.  You could be right and ECM has it nailed but the models certainly did not in 2018 until sometime post event.  I'm not sure the underlying algorithms can have improved that much since then given the lack of events.  I think what is true that with the increased resolution in the vertical layers we will learn more from this event going forward which will improve modelling going forward.

No that's not true. They did in advance. EC46 predicted the cold wave prior to the onset of the SSW on 12th of februar. Please read this one

https://www.wcrp-climate.org/images/WCRP_conferences/S2S_S2D_2018/pdf/Programme/orals/presentations/A8-03_Alexey_Karpechko_MAC.pdf

[AWD]

Be nice if we could have this week's easterly next week instead;

 

[georgiedre]

The update from meto says becoming colder next week again so probably and hopefully this will be the start of something better

[Jackski4]

Just now, markw2680 said:

Is it poor run or a good run? Haven’t a clue after reading some of the comments, think I’ll have a look for myself from now on before looking on here lol

I think the common consensus is it’s a better run than before with a lot more amplification and colder temps??

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Is it poor run or a good run? Haven’t a clue after reading some of the comments, think I’ll have a look for myself from now on before looking on here lol

It's a miserable run. Watch out for the SSW downwelling influencing output in a few days tho.

[Notty]

As usual, day 4/5 seems to be where the uncertainty really starts. All still to play for.

[Cold Winter Night]

21 minutes ago, Notty said:

Good agreement between ECM and UKMO 12z

Many similarities between the two indeed, but UKMO has a better alignment. The UKMO solution might resist the collapsing of the high more, since the Iberian low and the Scandi heights line up. The NH view is better to see that. The highs and lows are all more elongated on UKMO and rounder on ECM.

I prefer UKMO in this case, but hey, did the models (or the weather) ever take note of my preference?

[winterof79]

Seen worse with warm aa pumped upward

[Trom]

4 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

No that's not true. They did in advance. EC46 predicted the cold wave prior to the onset of the SSW on 12th of februar. Please read this one

https://www.wcrp-climate.org/images/WCRP_conferences/S2S_S2D_2018/pdf/Programme/orals/presentations/A8-03_Alexey_Karpechko_MAC.pdf

I may be getting confused but doesn't that paper just focus on the ability of the model in predicting the SSW and not on what the implications post SSW on the trop are?

[Froze were the Days]

D10 offers possibly of some scope thereafter for a NWN/ESE jet looping over the high which can act as a trigger for easterlies if the jet is weak out towards Greenland...just a guess and with the background signals and hopeful thinking.

[nick sussex]

If this is ECM attempt at a resurgent Atlantic it’s thankfully a complete failure !

Very little going on upstream and a bit more amplification which is possible could see a quite different picture downstream .

It doesn’t need a Hollywood scriptwriter to imagine how the pattern could evolve more favourably from day 7. 

[Methuselah]

2 hours ago, Jackski4 said:

Anyone else’s head hurt? Some saying it’s an upgrade from the UKMO @144 others saying winters over. Personally I don’t know, I like the fact UKMO keeps the cold air and GFS doesn’t look horrific. But what do I know? I’m off to take some paracetamol 

If only half the 'upgrades' promised for today's 'Beast' had materialised, the Thames'd be frozen over by now!

[Johnp]

Is that the most boring ECM run in Netweather history? It seemed as though nothing happened!

I get the feeling the models are in a kind of holding pattern until the start warming filters through. 

[Cold Winter Night]

Short term pain, long term gain?

All for fun, but the "No cold pool to the East" comments will soon be forgotten if anything like this becomes reality.

[Mildcarlisle]

Not liking this at all.Ok,southern England still taking some thing from the east but further north,that’s a southerly source of air with heights moving east.

[Updated_Weather]

Just have a feeling this “less cold period” may not happen & closer we get to the period - upgrades at short notice.

could happen

[Ventnor Viking]

How many times has it been said that it will start to show in the coming days/weeks, no offence to any posters, but I must watching different runs to everyone else. All of the cold is pushing out to the east and the HP is collapsing... Yes there will be some surface cold for a while as standard with winter HP but nothing significant. The new members must be so confused. 

[Griff]

13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Very little energy upstream at day 7 . There’s a gap to the nw by day 8 which could easily see something more interesting develop .

Not convinced any less cold interlude will be around for too long .

What if you squint a bit?

I'm not saying they're identical but couldn't help making an outlandish connection. 

Interesting to see where this might go... 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If this is ECM attempt at a resurgent Atlantic it’s thankfully a complete failure !

Very little going on upstream and a bit more amplification which is possible could see a quite different picture downstream .

It doesn’t need a Hollywood scriptwriter to imagine how the pattern could evolve more favourably from day 7. 

It's a run where it has know decisive pattern, it has limp heigths and limp lows, with know indication or drivers to drive the pattern forward, 

Im not concerned at all. Think I'd like to see heights dropping through Iceland through the UK with heights pushing into Greenland, I think that's the general them, whether we have a toppling high for a few days before another surge north Im not sure, 

[ALL ABOARD]

The cold building out east is remarkable... 

Hopefully the blocking falls favourable from us as you can see the decline in the ural blocking and the mega cold feeding down. 

The UK would be in the freezer for a substantial amount of time. 

ECM overall is bit mehhh if your looking for wintry nirvana.. But if your looking at it from a chart in January then it's amazing as we should be seeing a rampant jet and temps into the low teens. 

 

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by ALL ABOARD

[danm]

Just need to hold our nerve and have some patience now. Things should improve a lot, hopefully sooner rather than later.