Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

If it turns out like that come 0 hours

Btw i actually think this 12z could end up being a) a cracker for cold, but b) more importantly, the correct solution although possibly a little early, watch that shortwave and the ridge behind it about to build into Greenland.

Yes, i know Nick Sussex will probably be critical of me relying on the track of a shortwave at D7+ but  i think we could have just stumbled on the correct scenario.

Edited January 3, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[Badgers01]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Well, we were told by some that the one thing that won’t be happening is any Atlantic influence - hmmmmm!

Things may change, but it’s looking like a below average first half of January - but nothing exceptional like we were led to believe by some.

The weather is a great leveller to those who make bold claims, no matter how good the signals look!

Onwards and upwards!

 

 

Not to mention the “GFS has got this it, it models over the US better ... etc “ the UkMO model really is the decider ! 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

The UKMO it’s hard to tell what next, the ridge is toppling but there’s still amplification coming out eastern USA/Canada that Newfoundland low is a pest, but we all know how poorly models are with these. Perhaps to what we could have experienced it’s a big let down, but normality returning I’m not seeing it. I still think this isn’t totally resolved and in event it does turn milder, judging by EPS it looks a temporary affair which reduces west based -NAO trend. The amplification isn’t disappearing it may flatten out, but there’s still a lot to watch. Things are more uncertain than usual in short term given we have a major SSW imminent. 

Yes no where near resolved just yet with such an inconsistent 2 days.

Im still happy to sit on the fence now before i call a mild week before the end of januarys potential cold

[Man With Beard]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

settle for this GFS 12Z!

I think the key focus is whether we can get a more substantial snow event out of Friday. There's a front dropping down the country, it's likely to support snowfall, can we get it to hold its intensity as it moves south?

Beyond Saturday, I can see it staying cold a bit longer but the snow threat probably diminishing for a while.

[Jackski4]

Anyone else’s head hurt? Some saying it’s an upgrade from the UKMO @144 others saying winters over. Personally I don’t know, I like the fact UKMO keeps the cold air and GFS doesn’t look horrific. But what do I know? I’m off to take some paracetamol 

[Mr snowman 2018]

Good streamer potential In the east of the country from tomorrow night!

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

I think the key focus is whether we can get a more substantial snow event out of Friday. There's a front dropping down the country, it's likely to support snowfall, can we get it to hold its intensity as it moves south?

Beyond Saturday, I can see it staying cold a bit longer but the snow threat probably diminishing for a while.

Yeah that would be my forecast. I think wed still be in dry south easterly winds by then

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

I think the key focus is whether we can get a more substantial snow event out of Friday. There's a front dropping down the country, it's likely to support snowfall, can we get it to hold its intensity as it moves south?

Beyond Saturday, I can see it staying cold a bit longer but the snow threat probably diminishing for a while.

Aye looks decent, if the high can position a bit further north, potential for very cold days with any lying snow going nowhere

[JBMWeatherForever]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Well, we were told by some that the one thing that won’t be happening is any Atlantic influence - hmmmmm!

Things may change, but it’s looking like a below average first half of January - but nothing exceptional like we were led to believe by some.

The weather is a great leveller to those who make bold claims, no matter how good the signals look!

Onwards and upwards!

 

 

Unless i'm very much mistaken today is the 3rd of January. We will see what the first half of January was like after the first half of  January !!! 

[Snowman.]

 

Wedge?

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yes no where near resolved just yet with such an inconsistent 2 days.

Im still happy to sit on the fence now before i call a mild week before the end of januarys potential cold

And you are sensible are we looking North again with GFS 

[radiohead]

3 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Not to mention the “GFS has got this it, it models over the US better ... etc “ the UkMO model really is the decider ! 

Would never bet against ECM & UKMO when they are both in agreement.

[Skullzrulerz]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

For the north west and north Wales there’s a bit but for most it’s a big downgrade. See below 06z Vs 12z snow depth by the weekend 

You will find that especially looking into the long range for snow forecasts/depths are quite inaccurate though perhaps some good news for Morocco if snow is your thing there 

Unfortunately it does seem that most Models have backed off from a very cold/snowy outlook for around Mid January to a somewhat below average spell for a time though it remains to see what the SSW will do for good or bad 

It is unfortunate that we will led up the garden path along with some misleading posts which caused confusion which I will admit didn't help matters 

Though UKMO does seem a bit different from this morning with lower pressure around Spain and some heights around Norway so maybe a mini beast from the east somewhere along the long? 

We still have about 2 months for a potential cold spell so anything calling that "Winter is over" needs to stop 

Our next stop will be the last third of January to see what the SSW brings though Models are going to be all over the place till then 

Looking forward to seeing what the ECM shows tonight

[Fozfoster]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

old one that! 12Z gives us less snow than 06Z

sorry yes.......BEER ASSISTANT

[Badgers01]

Just now, radiohead said:

Would never bet against ECM & UKMO when they are both in agreement.

Couldn’t agree more !

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Would never bet against ECM & UKMO when they are both in agreement.

We all know what happens in this situation, ECM jumps to a cold set up and we are still left scratching our heads!!
 

GFS is still pretty good, maybe get a block developing again 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Ali1977

[Frosty.]

I think I prefer yesterday’s Gfs 12z..can we have that back please?..in that timeframe!!

Edited January 3, 2021 by Jon Snow

[chris55]

24 minutes ago, MJB said:

UKMO 120 - Will the North play a part on the 144

Eyes on the Iberian Low.I want it to move up...:) It is supporting the high though in its current position.

[Updated_Weather]

It’s like no one has ever gone through a SSW event before.

all this chopping and changing. Things can change at short notice. Agreement or not. It’s happened before, it can happen again.

Saying it’s game over is nonsense. 
It’s a waiting game - more things point in our favour than don’t.

I still haven’t seen snow from this “cold spell” I’m in Essex.. quite a few here I’m sure are lucky enough to of seen snow or had several days of it.

it’s only January 3rd. A lot can happen from now. A lot more chopping and changing,

it’s always a rough ride when a SSW event occurs. 
 

wouldn’t surprise me if tomorrow or even GFS18z flips again. 
 

hope is not lost.

[phil nw.]

Not too sure we should over worry beyond the Atlantic ridging just out west which seems in general agreement with the UKMO byT144hrs.I am sure there's more to come with the upstream adjustments.

The main thing is this is not the usual high being flattened by a rampant northern jet.Low pressure is retained to the south and on this we are still in the colder air.

Looking a the Polar pattern we can see the main part of the pv moving across towards the Siberian side so we would expect some,hopefully,temporary flattening of the Atlantic flow.

[Notty]

GFS(P) 12z -v- METO 12z at T+144 for comparison

[Griff]

162 GFSP proving more resilient and making more of amplification towards Greenland... 

 

Yes it goes milder, but is there more to this or just slow at dropping the previous pattern? 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Griff

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

And you are sensible are we looking North again with GFS 

Yeah its just weather modelling. 

I definitely dont invest emotional energy. Dont ger too high when its good or too low when its bad. Its a notoriously fickle model period pre ssw so im happy to still sit and observe and yes maybe the starts of the anticipated end of january cold spell the met office are on board with 

[Djdazzle]

16 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Unless i'm very much mistaken today is the 3rd of January. We will see what the first half of January was like after the first half of  January !!! 

Based on current trends. We will have had below average conditions until next weekend, then a slight warm up. Which takes us to mid month.

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Comment removed

[Cold Winter Night]

At +216h and GFS is re-amplifying. We are not going flat, the Atlantic is not winning. See how all the purples are far from Greenland?