Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Didn't the GFS stick to it's guns on predicting the current cold spell when UKMO and ECM were having none of it. Then they both slowly crawled back over to match the GFS, before the GFS then had a bit of a wobble.

Not saying the GFS is right, but over the past few weeks its got more respectability than the UKMO and ECM imo.

Gfs was right over ecm for a few runs in the 8/10 day period

b6 the time Ukmo appeared the evolution was assured 

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I hope its right!!!

But I'm convinced it won't be ...

We will see by 12zs ...

I bet. Hope you didn’t have that bet or you’re going to need to find a new house.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

better than 00Z! but expect the GFS 12Z to fall in line with other 2

[Scott Ingham]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its going to be very wrong.

Feel free to quote me in about 6 hours time...

 

Your braver than me but one of us will be! Hahaha! 

The GFS has always been better than the euros in the states. We had the same 2 weeks ago GFS on its own and it turned out correct.

Fascinating if not stressful all the same!

[Catacol]

2 minutes ago, WorldExplore said:

Big differences between the GFS's & UKMO/ECM.

Todays 12Z's model watch just trended behind the sofa ?

For sure! I'll be back this afternoon - better than the next installation of Peaky Blinders (well...maybe not....but pretty close!)

[Griff]

180 gfs vs p

[Met4Cast]

GFSP is flattening the high as well..

So that's; ECM, UKMO & GFSP all against the idea of a resurgence in blocking... 

[snowice]

12z we will all have to wait we need cross model agreement, at least GFS has given us hope.

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

GFSP is flattening the high as well..

So that's; ECM, UKMO & GFSP all against the idea of a resurgence in blocking... 

Thats more of a worry for sure.

Looks a middle ground.

Doesnt topple the high anywhere near as quick as the ECM/UKMO

[Guest]

The million dollar question is are you concerned the current swing to more westerly regime has calculated the much anticipated SSW? or have we got the prospects of a possible SSW yet to be shown to come?

[Ice Day]

So at 240, the GFS is seeing a renewed push of heights into Greenland.

A very cold run this. 

However, can it really be right against the UKMO and ECM at relatively short range?  I doubt it, but will return at 3.30pm to find out.

[Tim Bland]

Can we see an 18z GFSp redux ? See bottom image for the holy grail...

[Battleground Snow]

Well it wouldn't be a UK winter without the tense drama would it?

Control and mean, give some further hope

I think the para gives us some hope at least up till 144 too. Let's see what the 12z bring. The choas above can cause changes even in the normal reliable 96-120

 

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Snowmut said:

The million dollar question is are you concerned the current swing to more westerly regime has calculated the much anticipated SSW? or have we got the prospects of a possible SSW yet to be shown to come?

Or...has the GFS calculated it but the others are yet to catch on Tune in for the next 5 days to .....still be none the wiser

[Updated_Weather]

Are people serious right now?

when realistically have we had a decent 00z? Models are all going to go over the place regardless if some are “better at handling different situations better than the other” some may agree with each other and you may get one model out on its own. 
could it be wrong? Yes. Could it be right? Yes.

we will see,

but people claiming this is over just need to relax. This “flattening” of the pattern doesn’t happen until FI.

 

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

So at 240, the GFS is seeing a renewed push of heights into Greenland.

A very cold run this. 

However, can it really be right against the UKMO and ECM at relatively short range?  I doubt it, but will return at 3.30pm to find out.

It can only be right in this scenario. Greenland heights and american macroscale patterns. Its notoriously good with these patterns

Middle of december ecm and ukmo came on board 96 hours to the Greenland high

See you all at 3! 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Scott Ingham

[topo]

At least for my location and according to the ensembles, ECMWF 0Z is a massive warm outlier..

I too,don't trust GFS and ECM-UKMO together seem a very strong indication but let's wait...

Edited January 3, 2021 by topo

[Vikos]

Discussing +240h when FI is not even +120h?

Let the SSW happen and have a little rest. Seems there's a big hangover after that 18z.

 

[Tim Bland]

I’m going to take the advice experienced members gave me yesterday and take anything beyond day 5 with a pinch of salt. We can’t even settle in what is going to happen in 4 days time (on Thursday) with that trough heading (or not heading) south. Here is the GFS and ECM snow depth for the end of the week...tough times to be a snow plow contingency planner...

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

GFSP is flattening the high as well..

So that's; ECM, UKMO & GFSP all against the idea of a resurgence in blocking... 

I would be more inclined to say middle ground solution and still possibility that heights around Iceland and Russia could come together and build an easterly.

[Malcolm Edwards]

Fear not good people it will be back to narnia tonight with all toys picked up and ready to be ejected in the morning. Even though I live in the least most likely place to get snow, I'm still optimistic we may see something white this year. As I have seen things can change a lot in 3 days let alone 10. Happy model watching and keep the faith. 

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

It can only be right in this scenario. Greenland heights and american macroscale patterns. Its notoriously good with these patterns

Middle of december ecm and ukmo came on board 96 hours to the Greenland high

See you all at 3! 

GFSP playing devil's advocate 

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

The million dollar question is are you concerned the current swing to more westerly regime has calculated the much anticipated SSW? or have we got the prospects of a possible SSW yet to be shown to come?

 

the atmosphere is already reversed above 20hpa at the pole and as far south as 40N at 3hpa. So no model is blind to the reversal - it’s already in starting data 

the issue can only be that a particular model is struggling to resolve how that affects the strat below and into the trop. 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

10 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

GFSP is flattening the high as well..

So that's; ECM, UKMO & GFSP all against the idea of a resurgence in blocking... 

At t180 it's a triumph not a defeat, the problems occur much earlier, in the strength of the Greenland ridging and the movement of and depth of the Pacific low, 

Anything after t144 is pure fantasy 

[davehsug]

12 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Your braver than me but one of us will be! Hahaha! 

The GFS has always been better than the euros in the states. We had the same 2 weeks ago GFS on its own and it turned out correct.

Fascinating if not stressful all the same!

That's strange, because Nick Sussex used to regularly post discussions from US weather pros, which mostly consisted of ignoring the GFS and going with either ECM UKMO or a blend of the 2.