Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

You’re really not missing much!

GFS 12z ramps up the snow shower risk for England and Wales tomorrow and still brings Sunday’s trough further north and east.

Yeh think ecms got this one!!snow for much of the midlands sunday!!!

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Just had hail here

[Midlander]

AROME12Z Also is south I can’t foresee how that would lead to snow in the Midlands. Expecting a dry and cloudy Sunday

 

[shunthebartlett92]

3 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

AROME12Z Also is south I can’t foresee how that would lead to snow in the Midlands. Expecting a dry and cloudy Sunday

 

It’s always the same with these southerly tracking lows in winter; the vast majority are too far south to produce for our region and in the end it’s an m4 south jobby 

[Midlander]

12UKV another one which misses Midlands

 

[MattStoke]

Arome and UKV have never had it reaching the Midlands.

[Midlander]

2 minutes ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

It’s always the same with these southerly tracking lows in winter; the vast majority are too far south to produce for our region and in the end it’s an m4 south jobby 

I agree, think the MO could have waited till tomorrow before issuing any warnings for Sunday - Most people would look at that warning area and assume that they will see snow

Edited January 22, 2021 by AppleUK 123

[Midlander]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Arome and UKV have never had it reaching the Midlands.

ICON though this morning looked promising but now has moved towards the AROME UKV

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Arome and UKV have never had it reaching the Midlands.

Gfs has moved towards ecm!!if ecms stays the same then in inclined to go with it!!!!the differences at such a short time frame are really ridiculous in this day and age!!you expect the models to have a better handle of things but on the other hand i i guess if that were the case then it would be boring having models predict evrything correctly!!!

[nobble]

It will probably change 4 times before Sunday
unless it’s a 1000square miles of snow it’s always going to fluctuate 

[sheikhy]

Ukmo goes with ecm at 48 hours!!!please be right!!

[Midlander]

Although Sunday does not look promising now for our region, tomorrow could be interesting! 

[sheikhy]

Mattstoke will be happy with the chart above another 10cms for him tomorrow!!

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ukmo goes with ecm at 48 hours!!!please be right!!

So we have the ‘big guns’ vs the high resolution models.

[Shezale coventry]

3 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Although Sunday does not look promising now for our region, tomorrow could be interesting! 

Getting so confusing now some say sunday is looking good and some say isn't and now some saying tomorrow looks good! P.s the above chart is awful.for me 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

So we have the ‘big guns’ vs the high resolution models.

Im going with the big guns mate!BUT ecm has to be the same as 00z this morning and if its not then im afraid i will have to go with the likes arome!!

[Midlander]

WRF still looks good for Sunday, I do rate it more highly than the ICON! 

France view as UK one hasn't updated yet

Edited January 22, 2021 by AppleUK 123

[Gord]

A shame that stuff out west is coming in now. Could have been a nice surprise has it been a bit later.

Can see why it's caused a mini stir further east though.

[MattStoke]

13 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Mattstoke will be happy with the chart above another 10cms for him tomorrow!!

Tasty! Euro4 shows similar.

[nobble]

32 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Although Sunday does not look promising now for our region, tomorrow could be interesting! 

That 4cm looks close to us

[Midlander]

Just now, nobble said:

That 4cm looks close to us

Yeah, exact wind direction will be critical, but looks promising

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Sunday good on GFS, FAX too with trough over our area, wtf with the underline?

 

Edited January 22, 2021 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Fozfoster]

43 minutes ago, Shezale coventry said:

Getting so confusing now some say sunday is looking good and some say isn't and now some saying tomorrow looks good! P.s the above chart is awful.for me 

It’s called now casting!! Lol just keep looking out the window

[MattStoke]

Euro4 model buries me alive tomorrow.

[syed2878]

Very heavy sleet/soft hail here now by Villa Park.