Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[BarometerCat]

Just for fun, 9pm tonight

GFS 6Z Snow

Arpege, same timescale but further East.

None of the above is guaranteed to happen! 

 

[MKN]

23 minutes ago, B-C said:

Just for fun, 9pm tonight

GFS 6Z Snow

Arpege, same timescale but further East.

None of the above is guaranteed to happen! 

 

Probably guarenteed not to happen. Arpege shows snow in the east mids

Edited January 22, 2021 by MKN

[BarometerCat]

14 minutes ago, MKN said:

Probably guarenteed not to haappen. Arpege shows snow in the east mids

yep, like I said, just for fun.  I will not be glued to the window or aligning a view to lampost anytime soon!

Edited January 22, 2021 by B-C

[MattStoke]

That feature does look to track across the southern half of the region this afternoon. A wintry mix with localised accumulations. More significant risk of snow once it reaches East Anglia after dark.

Tempted to bemoan it missing Stoke but after the winter I’ve had compared to most, I’d probably be lynched

[MattStoke]

Warning issued for Sunday. Looks like a ‘middle ground’ between the different model suites. Could end up more widespread or more confined to the south west. High uncertainty.

[Midlander]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Warning issued for Sunday. Looks like a ‘middle ground’ between the different model suites. Could end up more widespread or more confined to the south west. High uncertainty.

 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Warning issued for Sunday. Looks like a ‘middle ground’ between the different model suites. Could end up more widespread or more confined to the south west. High uncertainty.

Yeh not as east as ecm and not as far west as gfs!!

[MattStoke]

Just now, AppleUK 123 said:

 

That seems like a strangely high level of confidence given the huge divergence in model output  

5-10cm above 100m. Wasn’t expecting them to say that much!

[Midlander]

Just now, MattStoke said:

That seems like a strangely high level of confidence given the huge divergence in model output  

5-10cm above 100m. Wasn’t expecting them to say that much!

Same, the amounts are pretty good! And most places in Mids are above 100m, so if the precipitation does reach here then there could be some decent accumulations. Obviously MO see enough a risk, even though UKV doesn't show anything. I'm sure it will be updated in the coming days. 

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

That seems like a strangely high level of confidence given the huge divergence in model output  

5-10cm above 100m. Wasn’t expecting them to say that much!

Not surprised ecm shows similar amounts!!!!could be quite an event for the midlands!!!conditions look perfect!!and a few cold amd frosty nights before hand!!!

[BarometerCat]

Light snow on METO at 9pm tonight for Hinckley 

And again 11 Saturday morning.  I don't tend to take seriously but this is quite a change from dry forecast.

And yes, Warning for Snow and Ice Sunday. Maybe too hasty writing anything off?

[Shezale coventry]

Hows things looking for coventry then?

[BarometerCat]

4 minutes ago, Shezale coventry said:

Hows things looking for coventry then?

Looking at the current charts on different models, the same as here.  Which right now is anyone's guess still. More likely Sunday for snow as per MEto warning. 

[Shezale coventry]

Just now, B-C said:

Looking at the current charts on different models, the same as here.  Which right now is anyone's guess still. More likely Sunday for snow as per MEto warning. 

Strange to see us in a warning for once. But knowing our luck will miss out completely 

[Midlander]

Another MO Warning valid from 16:00 - 10:30 tommorow 

Showers so hit and miss!

Edited January 22, 2021 by AppleUK 123

[Snowy L]

Just about in Sunday's warning area, but not happy as these always correct South. Anywhere above Birmingham is at risk of missing out imo.

[sheikhy]

Leicester in both the warnings!!interesting!!

[sawan]

Coventry this year has an active snow shield in place. Either the precepitation fizzles out or it changes to rain. Anyhow the best strategy is to expect the least, if it delivers then the excitement is much higher 

[Midlander]

In regards to Sunday's potential, a slight northern correction would not go a miss

Edited January 22, 2021 by AppleUK 123

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Just about in Sunday's warning area, but not happy as these always correct South. Anywhere above Birmingham is at risk of missing out imo.

Aye agree with this, South is favourite for this, FAX is crap

[BarometerCat]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Leicester in both the warnings!!interesting!!

Mad! Warnings out from 4pm today until Sunday.. Yesterday had no clue.  

[MattStoke]

Looks like the Harmonie is the latest model to bring Sunday’s snow risk further north.

Only runs out this far but looks like the ECM, ICON and GFS to me.

Edited January 22, 2021 by MattStoke

[Snowy L]

8 minutes ago, B-C said:

Mad! Warnings out from 4pm today until Sunday.. Yesterday had no clue.  

Did BBC not learn their lesson after the "cold and dry spell" the week after Christmas? Will never understand why they so confidently say it will be dry. As long as low pressure is so close troughs and showers will always pop up.

[MKN]

22 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Leicester in both the warnings!!interesting!!

Lets see how it misses us this time lol. 

[chris pawsey]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Looks like the Harmonie is the latest model to bring Sunday’s snow risk further north.

Can only get Belgium on the app. Any pics? 

Arpege 6z has a "south of M4" event for sunday but brings in a weak line of snow for Sunday night. 

Lots of twists and turns to come over the coming days