Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[weirpig]

Unless he means this    for the very  south of the region   or what the harm  is showing.

   

Edited January 21, 2021 by weirpig

[Sweatyman]

12 minutes ago, nobble said:

Yes
more worryingly shefali mentioned a few cms Sunday

well shes f$#@ed it then !

[MattStoke]

4 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm looks good for sunday!!!euro4 looks good for maybe cheshire gap showers saturday evening?!!

Euro4 showing a lot of snow for the north west of the region during Saturday. Probably  overdone.

Edited January 21, 2021 by MattStoke

[MKN]

An improvement from the gfs... 

[MattStoke]

So, the UKV and Euro both now show the area of wintry showers that Chris Fawkes was talking about crossing the South and Central Midlands today.

Both models have a lot of snow showers through the Cheshire Gap tomorrow and they spread all through the Midlands down into the South East.

UKV not interested in Sunday’s feature but the ICON, ECM and GFS still show it moving through the whole region.

A busy few days ahead!

Edited January 22, 2021 by MattStoke

[sheikhy]

30 minutes ago, MKN said:

An improvement from the gfs... 

Even with the improvements it still dont hit us!!!!!gota rely on the crappy scraps from the cheshire gap and ecm icon for snow sunday and thats if they are correct!!anyone got any charts from the models that show snow over us?!!

[markw2680]

Don’t underestimate Cheshire gap showers. If they hit us well you can get quite a bit of snow from the. It’s all down to that all important wind direction 

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Don’t underestimate Cheshire gap showers. If they hit us well you can get quite a bit of snow from the. It’s all down to that all important wind direction 

If the UKV and Euro4 are correct, anywhere across the region could catch them. Not just the North West. It looks extremely active tomorrow. They even reach down into Kent.

[nobble]

5 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Don’t underestimate Cheshire gap showers. If they hit us well you can get quite a bit of snow from the. It’s all down to that all important wind direction 

Had 3-4 inches in times gone by from Cheshire gap streamers

[I remember Atlantic 252]

16 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Don’t underestimate Cheshire gap showers. If they hit us well you can get quite a bit of snow from the. It’s all down to that all important wind direction 

Aye, which to me and the bbc weather looks WNW, no good for this area, Stockport in for a pasting, Sunday is so poor on Fax it's unbelievable, to me looks dry as a bone with the snow in the channel

[markw2680]

21 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, which to me and the bbc weather looks WNW, no good for this area, Stockport in for a pasting, Sunday is so poor on Fax it's unbelievable, to me looks dry as a bone with the snow in the channel

Always the optimist ent ya lol

think it will be radar and lamppost watching tbh

[MattStoke]

Still patches of snow here and the hills in the distance look completely covered. 16th day of snow cover this winter. Remarkable given how warm the ground was when the snow came down, how wet the snow was, and how high temperatures were yesterday.

A sharp frost this morning too.

[sheikhy]

54 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

If the UKV and Euro4 are correct, anywhere across the region could catch them. Not just the North West. It looks extremely active tomorrow. They even reach down into Kent.

What time does the cheshire gap activate mate?!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

15 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Always the optimist ent ya lol

think it will be radar and lamppost watching tbh

It's how it is, wind direction is wrong for tomorrow, SK4 6 inches, W midlands nothing, similar to 20th Dec 2009

Sunday looks good on most models but not FAX

Sun night/Monday good on some models but not FAX

Tuesday system looks too weak

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

What time does the cheshire gap activate mate?!

A few showers dotted about today, then the UKV has activity really picking up during the early hours of tomorrow.

By the afternoon, showers have moved across the whole region into the South East.

Euro4 similarly shows activity ramping up tomorrow morning.

Other models don’t really show this much but these higher resolution models should model shower activity better.

Edited January 22, 2021 by MattStoke

[sheikhy]

This is snow accumulation from ecm by monday morning..yeh right!!!!!

[Snowshine]

Potential for snow later - if it's cold enough, but Sunday looks to be of particular interest. But as we've discovered this year, it's still too early to guarantee anything, still nice to see potential after the miserable week just gone.

Edited January 22, 2021 by xSnow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS has 2 features, although about to change, Sun and Sun night

 

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS has 2 features, although about to change, Sun and Sun night

 

I’ve noticed a few models have a feature coming in from the north west Sunday night after the trough has cleared. Another thing to watch!

[chris pawsey]

Icon 6z goes for a couple of hours of snow Sunday morning.

[sheikhy]

20 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I’ve noticed a few models have a feature coming in from the north west Sunday night after the trough has cleared. Another thing to watch!

Yup seen that!!gfs was going for it as well!!keep those 06 upgrades coming guys!!

[MattStoke]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yup seen that!!gfs was going for it as well!!keep those 06 upgrades coming guys!!

Well the GFS 6z for Sunday is very nice indeed

[shunthebartlett92]

Shame about these filthy daytime highs of 5 celsius or above, though of course should any snow fall it should suppress those daytime highs.

[MattStoke]

Sunday’s trough looks stronger on the GFS 6z.

Then another feature from the north west Sunday night/Monday morning.

I’d bank that run!

 

[sheikhy]

7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Sunday’s trough looks stronger on the GFS 6z.

Then another feature from the north west Sunday night/Monday morning.

I’d bank that run!

 

Central and west midlands get quiet a bit of snow from that!!is that a move towards ecm i see from the gfs 06z!!!getting pushed east like the ecm last couple of runs!