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Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury

    Sad state of affairs really when a northerly followed by easterly, lasting 2 weeks, in late Dec and early Jan so very weak sun angle and long nights, can't produce more than transient snow cover at best for 90℅ of the country. Why are the low uppers so scarce at the moment? The jet has been well south of us so can't be the polar vortex keeping them locked at the pole. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge, 100m above sea level
  • Location: Stourbridge, 100m above sea level

    I think it is just a case of unseasonably mild air in the places where we want the deep cold to come from; poland, the baltic states, simply havent been cold enough so far this winter. I'm sure if they had some serious cold weather it would bring down the upper air temperatures even if the origin of the air is from the med. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, Summer of 95 said:

    Sad state of affairs really when a northerly followed by easterly, lasting 2 weeks, in late Dec and early Jan so very weak sun angle and long nights, can't produce more than transient snow cover at best for 90℅ of the country. Why are the low uppers so scarce at the moment? The jet has been well south of us so can't be the polar vortex keeping them locked at the pole. 

    won't go down well on model thread but have to wonder, uk winters are getting milder, we all know it, if this was 90's it would have been just that bit colder, maybe even as much as 1 degree, that's uppers, dp's and surface temps

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    Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge, 100m above sea level
  • Location: Stourbridge, 100m above sea level
    9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    won't go down well on model thread but have to wonder, uk winters are getting milder, we all know it, if this was 90's it would have been just that bit colder, maybe even as much as 1 degree, that's uppers, dp's and surface temps

    I think its just been the general theme for the last 8 or 9 winters (yes i know there have been some regional differences in that time) but it seems to take such a perfect concoction of patterns to get lying snow for more than a day or two here; thankfully last week the lying snow kept the temperatures down and snow was therefore able to remain fairly thaw-free for a good 5/6 days in places. On the UK level though, the prevailing wind direction will always be southwesterlies and in winter the pressure gradient is that bit stronger, and with the world warming up it takes a mighty effort in the atmosphere to stop that atlantic train. But as this winter shows, when the atlantic is sufficiently calmer, we still cant win with getting a cold spell. Who wants to move to northern canada?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
    12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    won't go down well on model thread but have to wonder, uk winters are getting milder, we all know it, if this was 90's it would have been just that bit colder, maybe even as much as 1 degree, that's uppers, dp's and surface temps

    It is looking like global warming is having a major impact. We now need the perfect set up to occur to get snow and that's not just for a few days as we have to have cold pooling in place first etc. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    And too make things worse its not going as well in the strat now as well thanks to the changes that we have seen in the modellling over the last few days!!oh still raining on and off here!!!dont mean to be negative but in terms of this easterly i mentioned it last night that it was still all rain at -6 850s thats just shocking!!you would expect at least a damn bit of sleet but it was just all rain!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

    All the sub zero dew points are across northern england!!!!most midlands should have been in sub zero dew points but its not happened yet!!

    Later around 4pm ....colder upper’s as well 

    C6DE14AB-C7F9-4E91-86B7-2787D391E492.thumb.png.74eb0318dee58e3def1e43444fec1ca8.png070F06C1-7ABC-4871-9A37-AB40FC04A0E1.thumb.png.032483bf6e523e2a68b0d3ef7aac6b0a.png

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    4 minutes ago, MKN said:

    It is looking like global warming is having a major impact. We now need the perfect set up to occur to get snow and that's not just for a few days as we have to have cold pooling in place first etc. 

    And that Mediterranean air (that's become entrained into our current Kitten From The East) started out with T850s in excess of 20C. Something that rarely, if ever, happened forty years' ago...?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

    And too make things worse its not going as well in the strat now as well thanks to the changes that we have seen in the modellling over the last few days!!oh still raining on and off here!!!dont mean to be negative but in terms of this easterly i mentioned it last night that it was still all rain at -6 850s thats just shocking!!you would expect at least a damn bit of sleet but it was just all rain!!!

    not a strat expert at all, but the SSW dosen't guarantee cold for us, effects of the SSW take 3-4 weeks

    -6 850's will not produce convective snow, said it in model thread and was called ridiculous! -10 is really needed for all elevations

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

    Well pretty much all the snow has gone now, with the exception of the odd small isolated patch. Would that count as our 8th consecutive day with snow on the ground?

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    Posted
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
    1 minute ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

    Well pretty much all the snow has gone now, with the exception of the odd small isolated patch. Would that count as our 8th consecutive day with snow on the ground?

    It would in my book 👍🏻❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    Tomorrow morning and Friday look to bring the most wintry potential to me. A streamer off the North Sea moving north through parts of the Midlands, and then fronts pushing down from the north west.

    DE53BB66-30D8-4F8E-BC6E-3F0075FF1B11.jpeg

    2E969374-8E7E-40A1-9368-9AB5047836F2.jpeg

    Edited by MattStoke
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    36 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Tomorrow morning and Friday look to bring the most wintry potential to me. A streamer off the North Sea moving north through parts of the Midlands, and then fronts pushing down from the north west.

    DE53BB66-30D8-4F8E-BC6E-3F0075FF1B11.jpeg

    2E969374-8E7E-40A1-9368-9AB5047836F2.jpeg

    Friday is the best chance more widely across the midlands!!could stick around for a few days after that with a cold high over us!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
    34 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Tomorrow morning and Friday look to bring the most wintry potential to me. A streamer off the North Sea moving north through parts of the Midlands, and then fronts pushing down from the north west.

    DE53BB66-30D8-4F8E-BC6E-3F0075FF1B11.jpeg

    2E969374-8E7E-40A1-9368-9AB5047836F2.jpeg

    Got to agree with you Matt. Pleased to see you finally got a decent week of Snow Cover, since your move up to Stoke.

    Not sure why everyone saying its been a poor start to winter. Its been a great start for us in Stoke. Prob the most lying Snow since the early 2000's. Tbf we missed out in 2010 and also 2018, so we were due a decent effort for a change. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

    Got to agree with you Matt. Pleased to see you finally got a decent week of Snow Cover, since your move up to Stoke.

    Not sure why everyone saying its been a poor start to winter. Its been a great start for us in Stoke. Prob the most lying Snow since the early 2000's. Tbf we missed out in 2010 and also 2018, so we were due a decent effort for a change. 

    Aye, been great start here too, but mostly all thawed now, too mild

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Just checked the temps for us midlanders and boy is it cold for the rest of the week!!by the end of the week temps struggle to about 0 or 1 degrees and -4 by night❄🥶

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    Posted
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire

    8 Jan looking reasonable at moment.

    06GFS shows 850s at -7 from 90h to 105h, 2m temps -1 to 1 throughout and dps -2 to 0

    so could be game on 

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    Not done too bad for snow since I moved up here. 2017/18 winter was particularly snowy, but it’s always been small and very short lived amounts. Until this past week that is. This is the best snowy spell I’ve seen since I lived in Kent in 2010.

    Still quite a bit of snow cover in my part of Stoke (Longton). Around the city of Stoke itself most of the snow had gone last night but up in Apedale barely any had melted. Such a difference across small distances. Should still be plenty of snow cover in the areas more rural and higher up than where I am. Hoping it lasts until tomorrow’s potential top up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Just checked the temps for us midlanders and boy is it cold for the rest of the week!!by the end of the week temps struggle to about 0 or 1 degrees and -4 by night❄🥶

    i want to know why the dew points are rising at the moment? Thought they were supposed to drop!

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    2 hours ago, Summer of 95 said:

    Sad state of affairs really when a northerly followed by easterly, lasting 2 weeks, in late Dec and early Jan so very weak sun angle and long nights, can't produce more than transient snow cover at best for 90℅ of the country. Why are the low uppers so scarce at the moment? The jet has been well south of us so can't be the polar vortex keeping them locked at the pole. 

    I blame the Russian high, its one of the most overrated annoying weather features that gets mentioned in this forum. It does nothing but keep Scandinavia and western Russia above average 850hpa wise which means we are feeding on scraps in terms of cold. Look at the deep cold events of 79, 91 and 2018, none of them have a Russian high because the PV dropped there instead. 

    So is the increasing strength of the Russian high a sign of climate change? I say it is because warmer 850hpa is being deflected towards high latitudes and warmer 850hpa makes thicknesses rise so just makes the high even stronger, we are getting more and more yellows on the thicknesses charts in the top right hand corner as time goes on. 

    Like you say a sad state of affairs but sadly one you would expect to continue with the world warming up. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    13 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

    i want to know why the dew points are rising at the moment? Thought they were supposed to drop!

    Think its that warm crappy north sea!!!!😒!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge, 100m above sea level
  • Location: Stourbridge, 100m above sea level
    19 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

    I blame the Russian high, its one of the most overrated annoying weather features that gets mentioned in this forum. It does nothing but keep Scandinavia and western Russia above average 850hpa wise which means we are feeding on scraps in terms of cold. Look at the deep cold events of 79, 91 and 2018, none of them have a Russian high because the PV dropped there instead. 

    So is the increasing strength of the Russian high a sign of climate change? I say it is because warmer 850hpa is being deflected towards high latitudes and warmer 850hpa makes thicknesses rise so just makes the high even stronger, we are getting more and more yellows on the thicknesses charts in the top right hand corner as time goes on. 

    Like you say a sad state of affairs but sadly one you would expect to continue with the world warming up. 

    A blocking high over the Urals and eastern europe is quite a typical setup during a negative NAO phase, ive done a presentation on it for Uni, with it being more suppressed during a positive NAO phase. With that in mind, i think its more than just the pressure setup this year causes the warmer air to our east.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
    55 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Not done too bad for snow since I moved up here. 2017/18 winter was particularly snowy, but it’s always been small and very short lived amounts. Until this past week that is. This is the best snowy spell I’ve seen since I lived in Kent in 2010.

    Still quite a bit of snow cover in my part of Stoke (Longton). Around the city of Stoke itself most of the snow had gone last night but up in Apedale barely any had melted. Such a difference across small distances. Should still be plenty of snow cover in the areas more rural and higher up than where I am. Hoping it lasts until tomorrow’s potential top up.

    Always been the same around here mate. I can be at Talke traffic lights and have Snow, go towards Alsager and nothing. Tbf I know we moan around here, but we do get a lot more than Alsager / Crewe who always seem to miss out

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    Posted
  • Location: Mow Cop - 330m asl
  • Location: Mow Cop - 330m asl
    36 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

    Always been the same around here mate. I can be at Talke traffic lights and have Snow, go towards Alsager and nothing. Tbf I know we moan around here, but we do get a lot more than Alsager / Crewe who always seem to miss out

    I always think that once you go past red bull lights, its like the ultimate snow shield as you head towards Alsager, Sandbach, Crewe etc. We did really well for snow this past week in Mow Cop and surrounding villages.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

    Just had a very light graupel shower, probs the second best form of precipitation after snow.

    Don't think this week will be as good as last week for this location, the MO think that front moving from the north west later this week will weaken by the time it reaches here. Not too bothered though, hopefully that was just the starter, with the main course arriving at the end of Jan

    Edited by AppleUK 123
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