Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[WillinGlossop]

Ice pellets and snowflakes lightly fluttering... 

 

[Polar Maritime]

Back home now and a good covering of snow here and snowing moderately.

[markw2680]

Lol us in the West Midlands need to give up on that, if your in the north east mids then you could do well for the rest of us we may get a bit of sleet or wet snow later but will not amount to anything 

[BarometerCat]

Turning sleety in Nottingham at the moment

[WelfordRd]

All a bit of an anti climax again for us in Hinckley - Heard for a couple of days we where right in the mix etc etc. The reality is that its raining, the precipitation track/direction is doing the complete opposite of what it was forecast to do and moving rapidly eastwards. Whilst i knew it was going to go Pete Tong, its still annoying when it happens. Think if i am that desperate for snow i need to move! lol - As it seems to miss us to either the North, East, South and West 

[DerbyshireDales]

Back to rain here in Tansley, Matlock 

[WinterWilf]

Temps climbing here rain not a supprise the main band has passed now if it ever turns it won't amount to much everything is sodden. 

Will see looks like washout need to get decent cold in.

[kmanmx]

2 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:

All a bit of an anti climax again for us in Hinckley - Heard for a couple of days we where right in the mix etc etc. The reality is that its raining, the precipitation track/direction is doing the complete opposite of what it was forecast to do and moving rapidly eastwards. Whilst i knew it was going to go Pete Tong, its still annoying when it happens. Think if i am that desperate for snow i need to move! lol - As it seems to miss us to either the North, East, South and West 

You need to wait until 2 or 3pm before calling it off. If you look at models like the Arpege, it is supposed to be raining now - as it is. It then sinks south and edges west slightly mid to late afternoon and turns to snow. So remain hopeful for now

Edited January 14, 2021 by kmanmx

[MattStoke]

Just a point for those thinking snow won’t settle because the ground is too wet; Snow can settle if it’s cold enough and the precipitation rate is high enough. In fact, high precipitation rate can even overcome warm surface temperatures and allow snow to settle with the ground temperature then falling. I’ve seen snow settle following torrential rain countless times.

[Snowy L]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Just a point for those thinking snow won’t settle because the ground is too wet; Snow can settle if it’s cold enough and the precipitation rate is high enough. In fact, high precipitation rate can even overcome warm surface temperatures and allow snow to settle with the ground temperature then falling. I’ve seen snow settle following torrential rain countless times.

I'm more concerned about snow not settling because of nothing falling from the clouds.

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

I'm more concerned about snow not settling because of nothing falling from the clouds.

That is a more significant issue
 

However, while the front is pushing east, it is also sliding south/south east. There’s more precipitation coming down from the north west to pepp up the back edge.

Edited January 14, 2021 by MattStoke

[WelfordRd]

10 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

You need to wait until 2 or 3pm before calling it off. If you look at models like the Arpege, it is supposed to be raining now - as it is. It then sinks south and edges west slightly mid to late afternoon and turns to snow. So remain hopeful for now

Hope your right but i have been burnt too many time to get any hope up. - The main concern is the precipitation is moving East rather than South/South East. According to the radar the we are now west of the precipitation and its moving away not towards us. The only hope is the stuff due north actually starts coming South and not East 

[Ninman]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Just a point for those thinking snow won’t settle because the ground is too wet; Snow can settle if it’s cold enough and the precipitation rate is high enough. In fact, high precipitation rate can even overcome warm surface temperatures and allow snow to settle with the ground temperature then falling. I’ve seen snow settle following torrential rain countless times.

it is now starting to settle here, but intensity has dropped as it has started to do so. Hopefully it can intensify a bit. I had the same iss at the start of Dec - rain ->snow which started to settle after a couple of hours but then faded and all melted a few hours later.

[sub zero]

More snowy than sleety now here in notts.

The snow will settle on even wet ground, if temps are 1 degree .

So hoping for at least a covering here in the snow starved trent valley ....!

[NixShep]

8 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:

Hope your right but i have been burnt too many time to get any hope up. - The main concern is the precipitation is moving East rather than South/South East. According to the radar the we are now west of the precipitation and its moving away not towards us. The only hope is the stuff due north actually starts coming South and not East 

feel your pain living in Hinckley too.  We are so central the weather teases us from all corners but we never get it!  

Edited January 14, 2021 by NixShep

[kmanmx]

6 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:

Hope your right but i have been burnt too many time to get any hope up. - The main concern is the precipitation is moving East rather than South/South East. According to the radar the we are now west of the precipitation and its moving away not towards us. The only hope is the stuff due north actually starts coming South and not East 

Aye, I know the feeling. Live in Leicestershire myself. We rarely do well here even when it's forecast  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

19 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Just a point for those thinking snow won’t settle because the ground is too wet; Snow can settle if it’s cold enough and the precipitation rate is high enough. In fact, high precipitation rate can even overcome warm surface temperatures and allow snow to settle with the ground temperature then falling. I’ve seen snow settle following torrential rain countless times.

true happened here, but this is moving quickly away east

[Snowy782]

Seems to be little falling from the sky now in Notts 

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

true happened here, but this is moving quickly away east

It’s also sliding south/south east. Look at the mass of precipitation to the north west heading this way.

[Snowy782]

 

5 minutes ago, Snowy782 said:

Seems to be little falling from the sky now in Notts 

Now snowing!

[DIS1970]

This, and maybe Saturday may be only chance of any decent snowfall for a few for a little while, judging by the latest GFS output (if you follow long term forecasting that is!), as by the last week of January, it may even feel warm, so it's -  looking at the moment (according the the the models that is, not mine!) there may well be no long term period of severe cold for the UK as was "forecasted" prior. The good old Atlantic is looking set to take control soon as per.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

This, and maybe Saturday may be only chance of any decent snowfall for a few for a little while, judging by the latest GFS output (if you follow long term forecasting that is!), as by the last week of January, it may even feel warm, so it's -  looking at the moment (according the the the models that is, not mine!) there may well be no long term period of severe cold for the UK as was "forecasted" prior. The good old Atlantic is looking set to take control soon as per.

yes if you look at GFS 06Z, quarantine walk in shorts and flip flops! on 26th Jan, not that it will happen, but yes looking at latest models January looks a write off, still Feb and Mar though

[Vmistry]

38 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:

All a bit of an anti climax again for us in Hinckley - Heard for a couple of days we where right in the mix etc etc. The reality is that its raining, the precipitation track/direction is doing the complete opposite of what it was forecast to do and moving rapidly eastwards. Whilst i knew it was going to go Pete Tong, its still annoying when it happens. Think if i am that desperate for snow i need to move! lol - As it seems to miss us to either the North, East, South and West 

I’m telling you Leicester is the worst place in midlands because we’re slap bang in the middle so we’re always feeding on appetisers rather than the main course

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

yes if you look at GFS 06Z, quarantine walk in shorts and flip flops! on 26th Jan, not that it will happen, but yes looking at latest models January looks a write off, still Feb and Mar though

We have over 2 weeks of the month to go and the models can't accurately forecast 4 days atm let alone the rest of the month

Big statement that based on 2 days of not so good modeling, and one that's gonna bite you hard in the bum when things change on the models and il be the one holding the dog that let's him bite

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

yes if you look at GFS 06Z, quarantine walk in shorts and flip flops! on 26th Jan, not that it will happen, but yes looking at latest models January looks a write off, still Feb and Mar though

It’s ironic that the SSW appears to have knocked us out of a quite cold pattern. Not that that outlook is anywhere near guaranteed. May still see some ‘battleground’ ground snow events but does look like just copious cold rain for most.

Edited January 14, 2021 by MattStoke