Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[MattStoke]

21 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Thursday into Friday looks interesting then.

A frontal system will bring rain eastward across the U.K. The front itself will bring in some warmer air aloft but ahead of and behind the front will be colder air and as this front stalls against high pressure to the east of the U.K., the milder air will be ‘squeezed’ out meaning rain may turn to snow in places. 

Main focus for snow (pink on the first image from the Aperge model, and hashes on the second image from the GSP model) looks to be Scotland, Northern England and the high ground of the East Midlands, with perhaps a little sleet or wet snow for mixed in for other eastern areas. However, there is a small chance that rain could turn to snow more widely across the Midlands and eastern parts of England before the front clears, depending much on timing, progression of the front and precipitation intensity.

One to watch!

Further ahead, a rather cold but messy outlook. That could mean significant snow for some and cold rain for others. No really significant cold in the ‘reliable’ time frame (at least in the south) but it has long looked like the period around 21st could see something more significant develop.

The Aperge has actually increased the snow risk from this system, and the automated forecasts are starting to pick up on some wintriness. Not expecting much if anything but it would only take the fronts to be a few miles further west for more areas to see snow.

[Sleet30031972]

Big upgrade for snow risks in the East Midlands this morning. Metoffice calling all snow. Could it be time for the East to strike a blow against the tyranny of this West (Midlands) dominated winter so far?! FREEDOM

[Sleet30031972]

Ha ha. Literally as i posted that, the Met have now downgraded the forecase to mere sleet

[stripeyfox]

13 minutes ago, Sleet30031972 said:

Big upgrade for snow risks in the East Midlands this morning. Metoffice calling all snow. Could it be time for the East to strike a blow against the tyranny of this West (Midlands) dominated winter so far?! FREEDOM

 

11 minutes ago, Sleet30031972 said:

Ha ha. Literally as i posted that, the Met have now downgraded the forecase to mere sleet

haha! This literally sums up my experience on this forum in two posts! Except usually they are several hours apart

[sheikhy]

Icon along with all other models looking really good for snow tomorrow!!

[Gustywind]

20 minutes ago, Sleet30031972 said:

Big upgrade for snow risks in the East Midlands this morning. Metoffice calling all snow. Could it be time for the East to strike a blow against the tyranny of this West (Midlands) dominated winter so far?! FREEDOM

Not sure I’d use the word dominated, a few areas have done well but my area (which is in the West Mids) has only had a couple of thin coverings so far.

[markw2680]

All we need now is for it to actually be about 100 mile further west and bingo. It wouldn’t surprise me if that was the case with that pressure building in the east 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

It's fizzled out by then, the main action will be 36-42... Expecting the para to show more widespread snow. It's good it's starting at sunset as it probably wouldn't have settled in the day in the Midlands away from high ground

reminds me location wise of 14th Jan 2013, where Leicester and around that area saw loads, and here nothing! to me this looks like approx the same, Burton E event

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Yes alot more widespread, arome is probably my go to model closely followed by Harmonie and arpege

Saturday's event looking very similar too, Burton E event

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Saturday's event looking very similar too, Burton E event

Is that on the latest 06z mate?

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Seriously guys - are we really saying that an area will get plastered with snow with the stalling front and undercut from the east ???

it’s so completely uncertain away from the high ground in ne England and e Scotland 

From imby perspective (central Midlands) at 100 meters I'm expecting a couple of cm , just because it's coming after sun set

[Gustywind]

21 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Pretty poor from the op!!!its clear this will happen now and the midlands is a very good spot to be in!!how much is anyones guess!wonder what the 42 hour chart will show?

East Midlands yes.

[high ground birmingham]

49 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Icon along with all other models looking really good for snow tomorrow!!

Hi, what is your location?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

45 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

All we need now is for it to actually be about 100 mile further west and bingo. It wouldn’t surprise me if that was the case with that pressure building in the east 

Mark not 100 miles, another 50 miles and the entire Midlands will be in line, with bhams elevation I think may get some, I'm around 30 miles to your east so I'm growing in confidence!!!! 

[sheikhy]

Just now, high ground birmingham said:

Hi, what is your location?

Leicester mate!!!keep forgetting to add it on my profile!!

[weirpig]

Arp keeping to the them from the 0z   difference in where the heavy stuff will be   but you can see the front know hits the middle of the country    i expect this trend  to continue  and perhaps get another shift west#

[sheikhy]

Just now, weirpig said:

Arp keeping to the them from the 0z   difference in where the heavy stuff will be   but you can see the front know hits the middle of the country    i expect this trend  to continue  and perhaps get another shift west#

And turns to snow further south as the afternoon progresses!!central/east mids a good place to be i reckon!

[weirpig]

Just now, sheikhy said:

And turns to snow further south as the afternoon progresses!!central/east mids a good place to be i reckon!

esp  eastern midlands    good luck

[weirpig]

Another shift west on the arome    not perfect yet for me  but further east it looks good

[sheikhy]

Just now, weirpig said:

Another shift west on the arome    not perfect yet for me  but further east it looks good

Post those yummy charts for leicester mate?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

bbc not on board, just sleet at 4pm tomorrow

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Post those yummy charts for leicester mate?

[sheikhy]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

bbc not on board, just sleet at 4pm tomorrow

Delayed!!they should be soon!

[sheikhy]

Just now, weirpig said:

Hmmm a little too far east at that time!unless it pushes further west after that?!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

but FAX has front further west