Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[I remember Atlantic 252]

59 minutes ago, MKN said:

Since its so quiet in here... The Arpege is interesting!

Aye, could be your turn and @sheikhy's, had mine late Dec!

no GFS 12Z?

[GokouD]

22 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Snow for the midlands early next week...

Is this in any way likely? Because living at a reasonable elevation in Shropshire that looks

[Ryukai]

6 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Snow has now gone after 2 weeks. A good run. Still plenty of winter left to run and the outlook looks promising.

Was still some large patches left in the Fields below the house before it got dark, but considering how much it's tipping it down, they are most likely completely gone by now.  Still, it stuck around remarkable well.

If only all this rain had turned up last week, we could be looking like Madrid right now.  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

24 minutes ago, GokouD said:

Is this in any way likely? Because living at a reasonable elevation in Shropshire that looks

nope, miles in FI

[Blessed Weather]

22 minutes ago, GokouD said:

Is this in any way likely? Because living at a reasonable elevation in Shropshire that looks

Welcome to the forum GokouD. I moved your post here as the Regional threads are the best place for 'will it snow in my backyard' questions. Hopefully this is the right Regional for Shropshire. The answer to your question is that it's just too far away (8 days out) to worry about a chart that shows snowfall. Thanks to the 'sudden warming' up in the stratosphere the models at the moment are chopping and changing more than usual, so we need to get much nearer to the day to have any certainty.

[GokouD]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

Welcome to the forum GokouD. I moved your post here as the Regional threads are the best place for 'will it snow in my backyard' questions. Hopefully this is the right Regional for Shropshire. The answer to your question is that it's just too far away (8 days out) to worry about a chart that shows snowfall. Thanks to the 'sudden warming' up in the stratosphere the models at the moment are chopping and changing more than usual, so we need to get much nearer to the day to have any certainty.

Ok, thanks!

[Dancerwithwings]

Things are looking good regarding future prospects for cold in a week or so....one to keep our eyes on

[nobble]

All snow patches gone 

the vicar has been out to our 15 day old snowman 

next 48 hours he’ll be leaving this world ?

[markw2680]

Yep a small mound of melting snow is that remains of the kids snowman 

[Ryukai]

Wow this squall-line (shortwave?) is pretty intense.  Roads starting to flood outside after just a couple mins. ?

[Josh Rubio]

Pretty much a perfect squall line incoming!

[nobble]

RIP old friend
surely only hours now .....

[MattStoke]

16 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, could be your turn and @sheikhy's, had mine late Dec!

no GFS 12Z?

Tantalisingly close to me.

I’m guessing this morning’s GFS was a cold one....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Tantalisingly close to me.

I’m guessing this morning’s GFS was a cold one....

FI snowfest! but just seen the 18Z! flip flops and shorts out

Edited January 12, 2021 by I remember Atlantic 252

[I remember Atlantic 252]

still no snow given Wed to Fri, mild sector dosen't reach Midlands now! but not having snow somehow

[MattStoke]

Thursday into Friday looks interesting then.

A frontal system will bring rain eastward across the U.K. The front itself will bring in some warmer air aloft but ahead of and behind the front will be colder air and as this front stalls against high pressure to the east of the U.K., the milder air will be ‘squeezed’ out meaning rain may turn to snow in places. 

Main focus for snow (pink on the first image from the Aperge model, and hashes on the second image from the GSP model) looks to be Scotland, Northern England and the high ground of the East Midlands, with perhaps a little sleet or wet snow for mixed in for other eastern areas. However, there is a small chance that rain could turn to snow more widely across the Midlands and eastern parts of England before the front clears, depending much on timing, progression of the front and precipitation intensity.

One to watch!

Further ahead, a rather cold but messy outlook. That could mean significant snow for some and cold rain for others. No really significant cold in the ‘reliable’ time frame (at least in the south) but it has long looked like the period around 21st could see something more significant develop.

Edited January 12, 2021 by MattStoke

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Thursday into Friday looks interesting then.

A frontal system will bring rain eastward across the U.K. The front itself will bring in some warmer air aloft but ahead of and behind the front will be colder air and as this front stalls against high pressure to the east of the U.K., the milder air will be ‘squeezed’ out meaning rain may turn to snow in places. 

Main focus for snow (pink on the first image from the Aperge model, and hashes on the second image from the GSP model) looks to be Scotland, Northern England and the high ground of the East Midlands, with perhaps a little sleet or wet snow for mixed in for other eastern areas. However, there is a small chance that rain could turn to snow more widely across the Midlands and eastern parts of England before the front clears, depending much on timing, progression of the front and precipitation intensity.

One to watch!

Further ahead, a rather cold but messy outlook. That could mean significant snow for some and cold rain for others. No really significant cold in the ‘reliable’ time frame (at least in the south) but it has long looked like the period around 21st could see something more significant develop.

But its getting corrected west all the time another 50 miles and its a Midlands event and that's certainly not out of the question 

[MattStoke]

Yes. Like I said, it will depend on timing and progression of the front and intensity of precipitation.

These things do often end up further west than the model output initially suggests.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Yes. Like I said, it will depend on timing and progression of the front and intensity of precipitation.

These things do often end up further west than the model output initially suggests.

As long as it's not like the failed snowfest of 12th March 2006! way before my model days, so don't know model ups and downs before the event

[MattStoke]

Not really expecting anything, to be honest, but it is worth keeping an eye on.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Not really expecting anything, to be honest, but it is worth keeping an eye on.

No, me neither, real interest reserved from next Mon!

[weirpig]

In the game fro Thursday  according to the Arp

[cyclonic happiness]

7 hours ago, nobble said:

RIP old friend
surely only hours now .....

go and chuck a towel over him, try to make him last until thursday?  

[MattStoke]

Well, the MO regional forecast mentions the risk of snow from that system and this afternoon’s model output increases the risk slightly. Very interesting. It’s on a knife edge.

[Snowy L]

3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

As long as it's not like the failed snowfest of 12th March 2006! way before my model days, so don't know model ups and downs before the event

I'm guessing that corrected too far west for the Midlands? I was in Liverpool at the time and that was the absolute sweettpot, got a foot of snow from that one.