Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[mother nature rocks]

Snowing here

[syed2878]

still snowing here got a lite covering got to say though the wind has got up a bit to.

[Fozfoster]

Nope nope nope 

[Shezale coventry]

Monday is looking very interesting for east mids and north mids showers will push way inland and the beeb and met have snow falling for most of the day here in cov on monday!

[Andypvfc]

35 minutes ago, Shezale coventry said:

Monday is looking very interesting for east mids and north mids showers will push way inland and the beeb and met have snow falling for most of the day here in cov on monday!

Don't tell Matt, that Stoke Snow Shield is in full operation as we speak . We have the amazing depth of 0cm at the mo

[MattStoke]

5 hours ago, Andypvfc said:

Someone wake Matt Up, we have light Snow in Chesterton, Newcastle 

Not a flake here. I went to bed while the last lot of snow was approaching because I knew the Staffordshire Moorlands would obliterate it again. They’ll be getting absolutely buried during this event while I’ll be hoping the odd shower can fluke its way across.

Easterlies really are rubbish here. I see more snow from southerlies (no exaggeration).

Edited February 7, 2021 by MattStoke

[Cheshire Freeze]

28 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Not a flake here. I went to bed while the last lot of snow was approaching because I knew the Staffordshire Moorlands would obliterate it again. They’ll be getting absolutely buried during this event while I’ll be hoping the odd shower can fluke its way across.

Easterlies really are rubbish here. I see more snow from southerlies (no exaggeration).

Euro4 looks decent for Staffordshire/Cheshire starting early hours tonight mate. Hope it can continue like that as it has been fairly consistent with the streamers up until now. I think you could see a few inches if lucky.

[MattStoke]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Euro4 looks decent for Staffordshire/Cheshire starting early hours tonight mate. Hope it can continue like that as it has been fairly consistent with the streamers up until now. I think you could see a few inches if lucky.

It does. Most of the high definition models look promising but those hills to the east just always seem to eat up any snow (Not rain though ). Really staring to hate them I’m remembering how frustrating the 2018 event was here. Marginal events that don’t look significant on the face of it are so much better here than nationwide significant cold events. Stoke’s funny climate! I just have to hope some snow showers can fluke their way across.

Looks like my family and friends in London are missing most of the snow as it sticks to the extreme south east instead. I’m going to be getting some stick for my prediction of significant snow for them

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It does. Most of the high definition models look promising but those hills to the east just always seem to eat up any snow (Not rain though ). Really staring to hate them I’m remembering how frustrating the 2018 event was here. Marginal events that don’t look significant on the face of it are so much better here than nationwide significant cold events. Stoke’s funny climate! I just have to hope some snow showers can fluke their way across.

Looks like my family and friends in London are missing most of the snow as it sticks to the extreme south east instead. I’m going to be getting some stick for my prediction of significant snow for them

At your altitude, even decaying, light showers will put down a covering. I think you will be OK mate. Here there is much less margin for error, even if it snows it will thaw some during the day...though I guess being to the W of the hills will help dry the air a tad and knock down the DPs.

Further into Feb it looks like winter will have a hurrah, but will it be an easterly or a northerly?? Think I'd prefer a northerly with some troughs in the flow!

Edited February 7, 2021 by CreweCold

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

At your altitude, even decaying, light showers will put down a covering. I think you will be OK mate. Here there is much less margin for error, even if it snows it will thaw some during the day...though I guess being to the W of the hills will help dry the air a tad and knock down the DPs

Sublimation of snow is more likely due to the air being so dry. Also, surfaces will likely get blown clean because the snow is so powdery. That was another frustrating thing about the little snow that we did get in 2018. Really need a significant fall for powdery snow to be any good, like in December 2017.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Sublimation of snow is more likely due to the air being so dry. Also, surfaces will likely get blown clean because the snow is so powdery. That was another frustrating thing about the little snow that we did get in 2018. Really need a significant fall for powdery snow to be any good, like in December 2017.

Don't think the air being too dry will be an issue, uppers only around -10 which is pretty perfect for snowfall that isn't too powdery. We'll see.

[MattStoke]

Feeling pessimistic for here but still optimistic that many in the Midlands will have a decent event and do better than the models, apps and naysayers are making out.  Particularly from tomorrow. Areas to the west of high ground will always struggle though.

[WelfordRd]

Just popped into the SE thread and they are turning on each other lol, good to look at for a laugh. Is is safe yet to actually go back to and follow the mod thread again to actually see what's going to happen for the whole Conutry? 

I'm other news the met office app has changed to heavy snow for Hinckely tomorrow, that's always a bad sign as it tends to do the opposite to what it says there

[MattStoke]

8 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:

Just popped into the SE thread and they are turning on each other lol, good to look at for a laugh. Is is safe yet to actually go back to and follow the mod thread again to actually see what's going to happen for the whole Conutry? 

I'm other news the met office app has changed to heavy snow for Hinckely tomorrow, that's always a bad sign as it tends to do the opposite to what it says there

Yep. People writing off an event that is only starting and having a moan about forecasters. Same every time  

People only have to look at the radar to see what’s going on. I saw nothing last night despite being under a warning but I can see from the radar why I saw nothing and how many in the warning area saw something. I’m pessimistic about my own chances from this event but that doesn’t mean I think the whole thing is a non-event!

Oh well. They’ll all be looking stupid soon but they won’t admit the forecasters were actually right.

Edited February 7, 2021 by MattStoke

[Ninman]

Morning all, no snow in Nottingham yet, temps still at 2c. Hopefully shower activity will kick in later today/tomorrow. Was a little dissapointed to not see a dusting over night...then I looked at the 18z and 00z GFS Ops runs...Bloomin 'eck! Another monster BFTE or a massive northerly. ECM looks like it could go either way! GEFs also trending colder after a less cold blip.

This is going to be a fun week! Looking forward to all of your snowy pics

[Gord]

My local forecast from the Met Office is picking up on a chance of some light snow showers this afternoon.

Take with a huge pinch or grit I know...but as we’ve discussed many times, they might not be accurate but can sometimes pick up on a theme.

Any models showing anything?

[Dancerwithwings]

Morning all...SE thread  it’s raining here and down the road it’s snowing’ what’s going on ‘ I’ve had enough’ this Amber warning is rubbish’ that’s it winters over ‘ see ya next year ‘

Had to laugh when someone popped in from the N/W thread and had to remind them that the amber warning is valid until tomorrow lunchtime.

Anyway, back to our neck of the woods, the promise land of cold and snow is on our door step, the promise of snowfall looks good for tomorrow in the form of showers and more organised lines that could deliver a fair few cm’s but where is the million dollar Q 

Enjoy 

[Georgina]

Good Morning .... went to bed with good sized flakes falling from the sky and woke up to a slight covering of hardly nothing

[kev238]

The period Monday - Wednesday looks good for the Midlands- esp the North and East Midlands 

I don’t expect huge depths but a few places which are lucky will do well. I’m minded to stay positive as the BFTE 2018 was delivering little to Notts until the 28th Feb when a streamer set up for 16 hours  delivered 10-15 cm - this wasn’t shown on apps / models etc until it was starting where all of a sudden from barely any snow symbols there were 16 heavy snow symbols 

[Klippieboo10]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Not a flake here. I went to bed while the last lot of snow was approaching because I knew the Staffordshire Moorlands would obliterate it again. They’ll be getting absolutely buried during this event while I’ll be hoping the odd shower can fluke its way across.

Easterlies really are rubbish here. I see more snow from southerlies (no exaggeration).

Agree 

[jimben]

Wind howling in the trees around my cottage and temp at 0.8c. Still some patchy snow on the grass.

[Dancerwithwings]

8 minutes ago, kev238 said:

The period Monday - Wednesday looks good for the Midlands- esp the North and East Midlands 

I don’t expect huge depths but a few places which are lucky will do well. I’m minded to stay positive as the BFTE 2018 was delivering little to Notts until the 28th Feb when a streamer set up for 16 hours  delivered 10-15 cm - this wasn’t shown on apps / models etc until it was starting where all of a sudden from barely any snow symbols there were 16 heavy snow symbols 

You’ve mentioned Monday to Weds and I couldn't agree more, even the fax charts are showing/setting up a streamer over the north of our region for three days

 

 

[MattStoke]

Wooo. Can hear the east wind howling past my house!

Notice the apps are only now suddenly increasing the snow shower risk the next few days. Shows how poorly they model these setups.

Should be a decent event for the region as a whole. I’m just going to need a bit of luck here.

[Strider]

EURO4 has been bullish for some time for prospects for E Mids. All the apps and BBC downplaying it quite significantly. We shall see!

[WelfordRd]

You can see the dry shield on the radar, need that low to pull away to the SE