Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[andy_leics22]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Thats more like it!!for my area anyway lol!!

1-2cm? That's not good enough  

[moorlander]

just been going over the expected temps for my area upto next Friday tomorrow onwards not one in plus range but what really caught my eye was the expected wind chill.

lowest is a very impressive -13 although i think we could go even lower than that.

going to borrow my sons mega telescope and do some star gazing if possible.

[MattStoke]

UKV this morning looking decent for feeds of showers into the Midlands from Monday onwards, particularly the northern half of the region. Not bad considering it like other models is likely underestimating the shower risk and not picking out streamers.

[Ninman]

ICON-EU has a verical band moving east->west overnight. Could give a cm or 2 for some (better than nothing )

[Ninman]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

UKV this morning looking decent for feeds of showers into the Midlands from Monday onwards, particularly the northern half of the region. Not bad considering it like other models is likely underestimating the shower risk and not picking out streamers.

 

Those are penetrating well inland on gusty winds. All good stuff!

[stokepa31]

I think initially streamers are where ti look. Hopefully some shortwaves pop up and give us more hope. Breakdown lools a long wayboff so no point in thinking about that yet. I think this block will resist the atlantic firnsime time to come and has the potential for a big reload with a scandi heigh looking for support going forward. Gonna be brrrrrrrrr span widget

Edited February 6, 2021 by stokepa31

[MattStoke]

Meanwhile, some model output showing that we may not see a breakdown to this cold spell at the end of next week. They build in high pressure with warmer air aloft but temperatures still below freezing near the surface. That’s a pattern that could lead to height rises to our north and east and a return to an easterly further ahead. Certainly indications that we may well stay cold generally into March even if we do see a brief milder blip.

The ECM gives most of the country 9 straight ice days.

[Gord]

Hmmm...I’m still underwhelmed I’m afraid when it comes to snow chances.

I know some of the models are showing streamers/showers etc , but unless the actual forecasts update in our favour this morning , (I like to use the apps and watch the video forecasts available and take an overall theme from them), then I just don’t see anything notable. Sorry.

The word I’m hearing and seeing a lot is ‘dry’. If the forecasts don’t grab my attention this morning, then I’m going to start looking forward to dry dog walks this week. Which would be pleasant in itself to be honest.

I’ll come back again Sunday night and see where we stand heading into the week.

As for this morning, very thick fog out there. We don’t seem to get warnings for fog so much anymore. We had some right pea soupers this winter, quite dangerous at times and I can’t remember the last time we were issued a fog warning. 

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Gord

[Dancerwithwings]

The latest Fax charts showing a front sinking South this evening as colder temps starting to dig in from the East this will see the rain increasingly turning to Snow

 

The NNMs shows this very well

My eyes will be firmly fixed on the 06z output mid morning with interest

 

 

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Dancerwithwings

[MattStoke]

If we went solely by computer models, apps and video forecasts, 2013 and 2018 would have been dry. They never show the full picture in these setups.

I remember at the start of the 2018 spell the BBC said it would be mostly dry.

2 red and countless yellow and Amber snow warnings later....

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

The latest Fax charts showing a front sinking South this evening as colder temps starting to dig in from the East this will see the rain increasingly turning to Snow

 

The NNMs shows this very well

My eyes will be firmly fixed on the 06z output mid morning with interest

 

 

 

Models have been showing this quite consistently. Strange there’s no warning and the forecasts are making little of it.

[MattStoke]

Dry?  

[Sleet30031972]

It's going to be freezing all week. Anything that falls from the sky will be snow. It's going to be great

[gig1968]

Let's hope for the snow. I dont remember todays thick fog being forecast either. Just shows you what can happen. Its nowcast time.

[Dancerwithwings]

8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Models have been showing this quite consistently. Strange there’s no warning and the forecasts are making little of it.

Agreed, the 6am update from the Met Office shows a very wintry charts for Snow later this evening, okay it starts off a little messy but certainly gets going later on 

[Gord]

11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

If we went solely by computer models, apps and video forecasts, 2013 and 2018 would have been dry. They never show the full picture in these setups.

I remember at the start of the 2018 spell the BBC said it would be mostly dry.

2 red and countless yellow and Amber snow warnings later....

I understand, but that’s all us Joe Public have to go on.

December 28th 2020 is a great example too of when the forecasts were wrong until right before the snow happened, which is why I’m going to keep an eye on last minute updates.

 

[Dancerwithwings]

And theres this from the ECM

[I remember Atlantic 252]

10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Dry?  

Aye, monday looks a good chance! tomorrow nailed on I think cold and grey, see GFS is still bringing in the Atlantic on Thurs! snow though so not bad

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

And theres this from the ECM

Looks like it turns to snow as it pulls away southward from me. Central West and South West Midlands could see a few cm.

[stokepa31]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Looks like it turns to snow as it pulls away southward from me. Central West and South West Midlands could see a few cm.

Yea will depend on the 850s and the mix. I see a dusting of slush at low levels with maybe staffs northwards getting a bit more snow. Gonna freeze bug time by Monday morning. Interesting times land the cold and hope for streamers and shortwaves 

[WelfordRd]

14 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Dry?  

Those streamers would be awful for me! Lol hopefully they either move or are more scattered and come in more vertical lines so get more people. 

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, WelfordRd said:

Those streamers would be awful for me! Lol hopefully they either move or are more scattered and come in more vertical lines so get more people. 

They will move about as winds fluctuate slightly. Some may well penetrate further west than that model shows.

[Dancerwithwings]

Overall like Matt mentioned early, the models have been showing “constantly” good intensity, giving decent snowfall for the Midlands later this evening and the BBC weather not mentioning this

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Overall like Matt mentioned early, the models have been showing “constantly” good intensity, giving decent snowfall for the Midlands later this evening and the BBC weather not mentioning this

Wonder if we’ll see a warning later. Doesn’t look hugely significant but maybe a few cm for some.

[gig1968]

Better off without the warnings. Everytime they issue them we get nothing. When they dont we fill our boots.....