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Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

GFS rolling out quite clearly shows just how snow showers will pack in from the North Sea, ignoring their exact positioning and strength as these are difficult to model and likely to change. For large parts of the country, including parts of the Midlands, this is looking anything but dry. Very cold upper air temperatures over warmer than average sea surface temperatures under low heights is a recipe for snow showers.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Just now, MattStoke said:

GFS rolling out quite clearly shows just how snow showers will pack in from the North Sea, ignoring their exact positioning and strength as these are difficult to model and likely to change. For large parts of the country, including parts of the Midlands, this is looking anything but dry. Very cold upper air temperatures over warmer than average sea surface temperatures under low heights is a recipe for snow showers.

Gfs has been quiet consistent as well!!looks good for a lot of the midlands!!powder type of snow as well!!

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Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS rolling out quite clearly shows just how snow showers will pack in from the North Sea, ignoring their exact positioning and strength as these are difficult to model and likely to change. For large parts of the country, including parts of the Midlands, this is looking anything but dry. Very cold upper air temperatures over warmer than average sea surface temperatures under low heights is a recipe for snow showers.

I've lost count of the amount of times the GFS has started to show more and more PPN coming in from an Easterly, the closer we get to the event. It usuallt shows very light PPN at about 3-4 days away and as we get within t36, it increasingly shows more and more. It's just GFS doing GFS things

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Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
19 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 Somehow I doubt these words will come back to bite him I think he is spot-on I think in fact those who have really hyped up this cold snap will have egg on the faces

It's all relative though dude. If you live in Notts, Derbyshire, or Leicestershire, you have a better chance of seeing some snow, than say, Warwickshire, Birmingham, Worcester, Wolverhampton etc... 

The fact is, some parts of Nottinghamshire could see 10cm+ by the time this is all said and done, and Birmingham may have 2cm. I'd certainly be hyping it up if I lived in a favoured spot from this

Edited by andy_leics22
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

The latest Icon & ukv are on par/best mates for tomorrow evening 

 

image.thumb.png.5aaf53144d81d35ab25c511991929691.png12BAE2ED-17C7-4672-AB75-3292B1B4D7F8.thumb.png.c2f18c96e56db8b0fcff55593f643d98.png

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Nantwich, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Extreme Weather
  • Location: Nantwich, Cheshire

Before the 2018 events the forecast looked largely dry. Just look on the radar and hope for the best, at least it won't be marginal!

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

The latest Icon & ukv are on par for tomorrow evening 

 

image.thumb.png.5aaf53144d81d35ab25c511991929691.png12BAE2ED-17C7-4672-AB75-3292B1B4D7F8.thumb.png.c2f18c96e56db8b0fcff55593f643d98.png

Hopefully we get as much as possible from this anything in the rest of the week will be a bonus then

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

GFS always too progressive with shunting cold air way and binging in Atlantic low pressure systems. It’s ridiculous when people on the model thread call an end to a cold spell on a definite date based off the GFS. All models break these patterns down too quickly but that model is by far the worst. 

Since yesterday It’s gone from ending the cold spell during Thursday to struggling to break it down on Friday.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Bromsgrove, Worcestershire
  • Location: Bromsgrove, Worcestershire
1 minute ago, andy_leics22 said:

Unfortunately, Worcestershire is not in a good location for an Easterly The best scenario is if a channel low can come along and throw up a band of PPN with it. Snow showers won't usually amount to that much, that far West. That isn't to say that you can't get lucky from a streamer, though.

Worcestershire is better placed for battleground scenarios.

Sadly a lot of it's low lying land , snow cover tends to melt rapidly, higher dew points- milder temps.

 

I'm not expecting much initially, will be later on in the week, maybe towards the end for us. 

 

 

 

  

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

In fact, the GFS now gives a good all snow event on Friday as a result. Shame it probably won’t happen as I would expect it to continue to be pushed back westwards.

E608C17A-F7EE-443C-BBF1-522C31078AE0.jpeg

C4A44C85-5D81-4737-939A-2BF50F808F33.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS always too progressive with shunting cold air way and binging in Atlantic low pressure systems. It’s ridiculous when people on the model thread call an end to a cold spell on a definite date based off the GFS. All models break these patterns down too quickly but that model is by far the worst. 

Since yesterday It’s gone from ending the cold spell during Thursday to struggling to break it down on Friday.

TBH Matt, I rather it stay cold and dry, rather than a Snow to rain event in a few hours.

If a Low comes in, I want a decent amount of Snow for a day or 2 days with a Freeze after. I just don't see the point of Snow if it rains straight after.

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Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge, 100m asl
  • Location: Stourbridge, 100m asl
15 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

It's all relative though dude. If you live in Notts, Derbyshire, or Leicestershire, you have a better chance of seeing some snow, than say, Warwickshire, Birmingham, Worcester, Wolverhampton etc... 

The fact is, some parts of Nottinghamshire could see 10cm+ by the time this is all said and done, and Birmingham may have 2cm. I'd certainly be hyping it up if I lived in a favoured spot from this

I guess so, but I guess we’ve perhaps had more days of lying snow this winter so far in the West mids , the end of December favoured us here more, but that is the exception rather than the rule really. Overall, an easterly or northeasterly will always shed its load over the places you mentioned before they reach these parts.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
3 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

TBH Matt, I rather it stay cold and dry, rather than a Snow to rain event in a few hours.

If a Low comes in, I want a decent amount of Snow for a day or 2 days with a Freeze after. I just don't see the point of Snow if it rains straight after.

Me too but on that run it’s actually all snow and surface temperatures are still below freezing into Saturday.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Me too but on that run it’s actually all snow and surface temperatures are still below freezing into Saturday.

That's fully allowed, just not Snow too Rain

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Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
8 minutes ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

I guess so, but I guess we’ve perhaps had more days of lying snow this winter so far in the West mids , the end of December favoured us here more, but that is the exception rather than the rule really. Overall, an easterly or northeasterly will always shed its load over the places you mentioned before they reach these parts.

Oh yeah, totally. Sorry, I should have been a bit clearer when I said that Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire and Leicestershire had a better chance of snow, I meant during an Easterly, not in general The West Mids have done a lot better so far, this Winter.

 

Just seen this on the GFS. It's in F.I, but... Battleground dumping, anyone?

GFSOPUK18_156_53.png

GFSOPUK18_153_53.png

GFSOPUK18_150_53.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bromsgrove, Worcestershire
  • Location: Bromsgrove, Worcestershire
10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

In fact, the GFS now gives a good all snow event on Friday as a result. Shame it probably won’t happen as I would expect it to continue to be pushed back westwards.

E608C17A-F7EE-443C-BBF1-522C31078AE0.jpeg

C4A44C85-5D81-4737-939A-2BF50F808F33.jpeg

You've got to laugh though

It's doing what it does best over doing  the shortwave, at one point forecasting snow/rain event for Friday on yesterdays 12z I believe.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

I think it will come down to the radar and the lamppost! I’m trying to decide how likely it is that I will be driving from south notts to Coalville on Monday morning!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

Has anyone else noticed that the rain is already turning to sleet & snow over the hills in Mid & North Wales according to the radar?

Edited by davehsug
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
1 minute ago, beccaboo said:

I think it will come down to the radar and the lamppost! I’m trying to decide how likely it is that I will be driving from south notts to Coalville on Monday morning!! 

Absolutely becca, it’s only Friday evening, set ups like this in the past have shown surprises incoming at very short notices....great times

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