Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[Fozfoster]

9 minutes ago, chris pawsey said:

... Then it's streamerville 

I hope so

[MKN]

Poor ecm early on

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, MKN said:

Poor ecm early on

Will be poor for Sunday, can clearly see the shield, Sunday evening we are meant to get ours, when front, and our shield moves SE

[Eskimo]

2 minutes ago, MKN said:

Poor ecm early on

Won't pick up snow showers as it's not a high resolution model. Will only model the precipitation from frontal waves. 

[Vmistry]

Throwback to the 2018 BFTE when Leicestershire was in this triangle of no warnings

[GokouD]

7 minutes ago, MKN said:

Poor ecm early on

I might actually squeak a cm out of that!

[chris pawsey]

12 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

I hope so

And that's what you have to do in streamer situations... Hope!! You could be 20 miles away from a dumping... but you could be the sweet spot!

Think I prefer frontal snow... more guaranteed (sort of) 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, chris pawsey said:

And that's what you have to do in streamer situations... Hope!! You could be 20 miles away from a dumping... but you could be the sweet spot!

Think I prefer frontal snow... more guaranteed (sort of) 

Could go through Stone, miss me and MattStoke, or through Cannock

[Sleet30031972]

14 minutes ago, Vmistry said:

Throwback to the 2018 BFTE when Leicestershire was in this triangle of no warnings

Ha ha you've got to laugh. That's pretty funny

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Fight on the EC! great run if we have snow on the ground! the Atlantic still not in on Friday, Thurs-Fri look like below 0 maxes, but dry

[MKN]

17 minutes ago, GokouD said:

I might actually squeak a cm out of that!

It looks Swearing AGAIN poor tbh lol. Hoping shower activity increases in future runs. It's not looking good though and when we consider its not close to the beast from the east in terms of strength of cold then we really are struggling after that wasnt particularly great here either. Sat night into sunday may be our best hope. 

[andy_leics22]

25 minutes ago, Vmistry said:

Throwback to the 2018 BFTE when Leicestershire was in this triangle of no warnings

The 'Leicester snow shield' at full power there!

[Ninman]

For my location, the GEFS go for 100% chance of snow. Every model is going with something different. Eyes glued to the radars over the next few days. The missus won't be too happy! 

[MattStoke]

Really hoping the GEM is right. It's about the only model really picking up streamers well at the moment and has them consistently hitting Stoke. Gives 7cm here.

Also, John Hammond (BBC) reckoned Peak District into Stoke will get a lot more than the models show due to how they underdo showers.

Edited February 5, 2021 by MattStoke

[WelfordRd]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Really hoping the GEM is right. It's about the only model really picking up streamers well at the moment and has then consistently hitting Stoke. Gives 7cm here.

Also, John Hammond (BBC) reckoned Peak District into Stoke will get a lot more than the models show due to how they underdo showers.

Still Dog Poo for Hinckley 

[Andypvfc]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Really hoping the GEM is right. It's about the only model really picking up streamers well at the moment and has then consistently hitting Stoke. Gives 7cm here.

Also, John Hammond (BBC) reckoned Peak District into Stoke will get a lot more than the models show due to how they underdo showers.

Did he say anything for the Northwest of Stoke mate, more towards Cheshire, Kidsgrove sort of area?

[Gord]

37 minutes ago, Vmistry said:

Throwback to the 2018 BFTE when Leicestershire was in this triangle of no warnings

It's the secret White Weather Warning...one above Red!

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

Did he say anything for the Northwest of Stoke mate, more towards Cheshire, Kidsgrove sort of area?

Didn’t say. I just asked if the Peak District would kill off Stoke’s chances.

[Vmistry]

1 minute ago, Gord said:

It's the secret White Weather Warning...one above Red!

I used to work near Coventry back then and I remember driving from Leicester to Coventry down the M69. Leicester had no snow and progressively as I drove down, the snow got deeper and deeper. MKN is right 2018 was rubbish here for snow lol

[LeeKay/]

Its like Bankety Blank, in a Les Dawson voice. Sunday comes to the super match game; super match game!

 

[andy_leics22]

17 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Really hoping the GEM is right. It's about the only model really picking up streamers well at the moment and has them consistently hitting Stoke. Gives 7cm here.

Also, John Hammond (BBC) reckoned Peak District into Stoke will get a lot more than the models show due to how they underdo showers.

I'm hoping it's bloody wrong!! We're in the corridor of nothingness here

I said it earlier but I'll say it again, because I think it's important for people in Leicestershire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Stoke (Yes, I included Stoke ) and Lincolnshire to know... The models are absolutely useless at picking up on showers from an Easterly. I would not be surprised if the areas mentioned, ended up with 5-15cm, Possibly even 20cm+ in places that are under a constant streamer. Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire are my favoured locations for a set up like this. Wasn't it 2009 when those areas were buried under 25cm+ of snow from an Easterly? Or maybe it was 2010. All I can remember is that Leicester had around 7-10cm of snow while 40 miles North, were buried with about a foot of the stuff So frustrating at the time.

So, in summary, do not write this off yet. There's no way it will be as dry as the models are suggesting currently, for Sunday-Wednesday. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by andy_leics22

[LeeKay/]

What BLANK to the is verified?

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

I'm hoping it's bloody wrong!! We're in the corridor of nothingness here

I said it earlier but I'll say it again, because I think it's important for people in Leicestershire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Stoke (Yes, I included Stoke ) and Lincolnshire to know... The models are absolutely useless at picking up on showers from an Easterly. I would not be surprised if the areas mentioned, ended up with 5-15cm, Possibly even 20cm+ in places that are under a constant streamer. Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire are my favoured locations for a set up like this. Wasn't it 2009 when those areas were buried under 25cm+ of snow from an Easterly? Or maybe it was 2010. All I can remember is that Leicester had around 7-10cm of snow while 40 miles North, were buried with about a foot of the stuff So frustrating at the time.

So, in summary, do not write this off yet. There's no way it will be as dry as the models are suggesting currently, for Sunday-Wednesday. 

The frontal shield though is accurate, convection killer, saw it's there all day Sun and Mon, right over most of Midlands, UKV model think it was

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

I'm hoping it's bloody wrong!! We're in the corridor of nothingness here

I said it earlier but I'll say it again, because I think it's important for people in Leicestershire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Stoke (Yes, I included Stoke ) and Lincolnshire to know... The models are absolutely useless at picking up on showers from an Easterly. I would not be surprised if the areas mentioned, ended up with 5-15cm, Possibly even 20cm+ in places that are under a constant streamer. Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire are my favoured locations for a set up like this. Wasn't it 2009 when those areas were buried under 25cm+ of snow from an Easterly? Or maybe it was 2010. All I can remember is that Leicester had around 7-10cm of snow while 40 miles North, were buried with about a foot of the stuff So frustrating at the time.

So, in summary, do not write this off yet. There's no way it will be as dry as the models are suggesting currently, for Sunday-Wednesday. 

Well he did reckon Leicestershire, Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire would see a lot more than the models show

You’re right. Models are extremely poor in these situations. People will be surprised when they look at the radar.

[LeeKay/]

Just a bit o fun, wow chill out be rain or snow.

Blankety Blank

Edited February 5, 2021 by LeeKay/