Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[Andypvfc]

Why is it on here, you read 1 post and get excited because they say excellent charts, but then the next post, makes everyone suicidal because there is no Snow forecast.

Even Matt in Stoke, one minute oooo excellent Icon, then next post overall its looks a boring week lol

Make your minds please as its giving me an headache.

[BarometerCat]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

I will die of laughter if this is correct from the Aperge for Sunday.

That is the visual embodiment of the sort of the thing that happens! 

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

Why is it on here, you read 1 post and get excited because they say excellent charts, but then the next post, makes everyone suicidal because there is no Snow forecast.

Even Matt in Stoke, one minute oooo excellent Icon, then next post overall its looks a boring week lol

Make your minds please as its giving me an headache.

My model analysis/update vs what I think will actually happen.

Not expecting anything for me but one or two models look promising.

Edited February 5, 2021 by MattStoke

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

My model analysis/update vs what I think will actually happen.

Not expecting anything for me but one or two models look promising.

No, certainly expectations down, we should see snow, but I do think virtually definite that mild air will win out on Thursday night, GEM is not a great model

[sheikhy]

Just to add latest ukv has absolute zilch for the midlands!!and when i say nothing i really mean nothing what so ever!!thats for sunday monday and tuesday!!!

[weirpig]

Last one for a bit  NNM 2k

[Andypvfc]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

My model analysis/update vs what I think will actually happen.

Not expecting anything for me but one or two models look promising.

Cheers mate, I mean it as good natured banter.

Although I went bed at 6ish thinking, oh well if we miss out, so be it as at least we may get a good dump from a stalling front Thursday, a bit like Storm Emma but futher North for us, but now it seems toys are about to be thrown everywhere in my taxi later.

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

No, certainly expectations down, we should see snow, but I do think virtually definite that mild air will win out on Thursday night, GEM is not a great model

GFS is always the most progressive with any breakdown and does give a decent spell of snow before turning to rain. Still time for that to change. The Met Office outlook regarding that is very disappointing though. Sounds absolute crud.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Just to add latest ukv has absolute zilch for the midlands!!and when i say nothing i really mean nothing what so ever!!thats for sunday monday and tuesday!!!

That is a bad one, looks like 3 days stuck under frontal shield

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

That is a bad one, looks like 3 days stuck under frontal shield

Its terrible man!!!this was my only concern last couple of days!!

[MKN]

14 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

My model analysis/update vs what I think will actually happen.

I dont think for shower activity you will be any closer to knowing until Sunday night monday morning and you check the radar. The models like gfs often show widespread albeit light snow in these situations and it ends up a streamer with a few lucky ones getting hammered. The winds look strong enough to carry any streamer right across the country imo. 

[MattStoke]

I honestly think the UKV is rubbish. It’s had no snow for me for every event this winter. 

[Snowy L]

UKV is terrible. Always looks like every front it shows has been decaying for 100 hours. Always massively underestimates rain/snow totals.

[sheikhy]

Biggest fail for ukv was the midlands snow event a few weeks back!!had nothing for leicester but ended up getting between 10 and 15cms!!

[MattStoke]

24 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

No, certainly expectations down, we should see snow, but I do think virtually definite that mild air will win out on Thursday night, GEM is not a great model

Oh. I meant the GEM for streamers, by the way. Not the breakdown.

Agree it’s not a great model but it does occasionally verify better than the others and seems to pick up streamers better.

[sheikhy]

Let me add arpege to the gfs!!constant stream of snow from monday morning for over 24 hours!!

[Gord]

I really hope those near the Amber Warning zone see something significant. After the fails they've had this winter...they really deserve this. I hope the models/forecasts aren't having a real wobble for them.

And now for the my selfish Midlands point of view...

Nice and relaxed position for us here. We've had some significant snow already this winter, forecasts for the upcoming spell aren't the best they can be so we have everything to gain and not much to lose.

There should be no sounds of squeaky backsides in the Midlands this evening.

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Gord

[andy_leics22]

30 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS is always the most progressive with any breakdown and does give a decent spell of snow before turning to rain. Still time for that to change. The Met Office outlook regarding that is very disappointing though. Sounds absolute crud.

Agreed. GFS absolutely LOVES bringing in raging zonality as soon as it can. I would trust the ECM or UKMO for a medium term outlook over the GFS. Having said that, the GFS did pick this Easterly up at around t180! So it isn't bad at picking up trends.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Key EC coming up, 00Z was okay, but not as good as last nights 12Z which looked like todays GEM

feel though it will blast the Atlantic through, with mild high pressure on 13th-14th

[cyclonic happiness]

43 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Last one for a bit  NNM 2k

So, a near gale force easterly flow, manages to drag bitterly cold air across a warm sea, and then it skips practically the whole of east Anglia, and the Midlands, to dump snow in Wales?? lol

[Shezale coventry]

I been adamant for a few days that our best chance at snowfall is the atlantic trying to move in and bump into the cold air...but at the moment looks as though that will happen but with the mild air winning out

[Fozfoster]

2 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

So, a near gale force easterly flow, manages to drag bitterly cold air across a warm sea, and then it skips practically the whole of east Anglia, and the Midlands, to dump snow in Wales?? lol

That’s how I see it.  

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

So, a near gale force easterly flow, manages to drag bitterly cold air across a warm sea, and then it skips practically the whole of east Anglia, and the Midlands, to dump snow in Wales?? lol

Easterly will only be kicking in then. That snow is from a front turning to snow.

[chris pawsey]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Easterly will only be kicking in then. That snow is from a front turning to snow.

... Then it's streamerville 

[Vmistry]

It’s funny how as soon as the SE and london area are about to see some snow, the media including the BBC are portraying the upcoming snap as a ‘significant’ and ‘snowy’ spell for the whole of the UK. But when it’s the rest of the Uk getting snow and not the London area, there’s hardly any hype in the media.