Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[MattStoke]

Strange that warnings for here are removed just as the high resolution models show a spell of snow across the region on Saturday night. Maybe they issue a warning for it tomorrow if the model output looks the same.

Then just got to hope for streamers, which most models don’t pick up on. The Arome should though give us a decent idea and the GEM has been very consistent with showing streamers reaching all the way to Wales.

Edited February 5, 2021 by MattStoke

[shunthebartlett92]

45 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Met was showing no snow for here. Then they remove the warnings but add 9 hours of snow lol. Just shows how up in the air it is. Main front we deffo missed it but showers and streamers will be all over the place for days so still hope for whoever cops one or two.

Re the main front not necessarily, what certain models are showing is, potentially, a trend for the band to turn to snow for a time saturday night/sunday morning before the potential fun and games begins with streamers. All to play for!

[cyclonic happiness]

27 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

Cold week coming up but here, bone dry....

No, it won't be bone dry, troughs, shortwaves and showers will all show up at short notice, and cannot be predicted. That's why the forecasts tend to leave it dry until the last minute

[Ninman]

18 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Strange that warnings for here are removed just as the high resolution models show a spell of snow across the region on Saturday night. Maybe they issue a warning for it tomorrow if the model output looks the same.

Then just got to hope for streamers, which most models don’t pick up on. The Arome should though give us a decent idea and the GEM has been very consistent with showing streamers reaching all the way to Wales.

In the last snow event, there were no warnings for my area, then when the snow was fizzling out, they put out an amber snow warning. It's like Boris is in charge

[BarometerCat]

The colder air moves South and more widely into the Midlands according to GFS 6z by about Midnight Sat.  Interest will more likely be after then.

Euro4 Similar timescale shows some precip around but moves South?

Arpege - more widespread

 

Honestly is going to be radar watch from tomorrow PM..

 

 

 

[Diamond Joe]

Before I say this I dont take them seriously and I know its automated output

But damm you weather app forecasts stop forecasting snow then taking it away lol..............Im looking at you Apple Weather App!!!! I feel alot more assured when theres a row of 5 days straight snow like there was yesterday

[sheikhy]

Wow!!!ecm 06z 850s of -12 coming in from the east across east anglia and south east!!gfs has -7 850s for the same areas!!massive difference!!!......

[Ninman]

Looking at the GEFS precipitation mean for Monday, literally could snow anywhere (or everywhere!)

[Ninman]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Wow!!!ecm 06z 850s of -12 coming in from the east across east anglia and south east!!gfs has -7 850s for the same areas!!massive difference!!!......

I would stick with the ECM on this one! What a cracker

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Ninman said:

Looking at the GEFS precipitation mean for Monday, literally could snow anywhere (or everywhere!)

Monday is better, no frontal shield

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Wow!!!ecm 06z 850s of -12 coming in from the east across east anglia and south east!!gfs has -7 850s for the same areas!!massive difference!!!......

The lower the better for convection.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

The lower the better for convection.

Was just thinking that, warmer the north sea better too

[snowangel32]

Anyone checked out the latest FAX chart front way further East if this happens make sure you duck in the MOD thread. Although better for long term prospects and would help the streamers get further inland.

 

[sheikhy]

Gfs gives a high of -1 or -2 in the midlands from sunday to thursday!!with a low of -5!!!freeeezing!!

[MattStoke]

I am encouraged by the only model really picking up on the shower/streamer risk, the GEM looks good for the North West Midlands. Will be interesting to what the Arome shoes. That model should be the best guide.

[MattStoke]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Gfs gives a high of -1 or -2 in the midlands from sunday to thursday!!with a low of -5!!!freeeezing!!

Negative double digits should be achievable mid week over snow cover should winds fall light and skies clear.

[Polar Low]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Negative double digits should be achievable mid week over snow cover should winds fall light and skies clear.

He's talking about daily maxima. Not sure if you realised (sorry if you did!)

[MattStoke]

12 minutes ago, Polar Low said:

He's talking about daily maxima. Not sure if you realised (sorry if you did!)

So was I.........

Na That would be quite something!

He said a low of -5’C. Should get way lower than that by mid week!

[Eskimo]

I don't think we need to worry too much - yes the east will see the most snow in this setup, however on a very stiff easterly wind, these showers will penetrate well inland. 


 

[Arctic Hare]

12 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

I don't think we need to worry too much - yes the east will see the most snow in this setup, however on a very stiff easterly wind, these showers will penetrate well inland. 


 

That map shows the precip almost directly heading for me, so I'll bank that one! I know, I know, the chances of it being exactly there come the time are minimal. Nice eye candy though!

[Fozfoster]

2 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

No, it won't be bone dry, troughs, shortwaves and showers will all show up at short notice, and cannot be predicted. That's why the forecasts tend to leave it dry until the last minute

We shall see

[MKN]

12z icon

[PolarWarsaw]

Have to say, it's very much 'What's the fuss' for those far away from the eastern edge of the Midlands. Notable how it's all stations go in the MOD thread isn't it - with London and the SE involved. If this was a Northerly you would be hearing winter is over every 10 minutes. 

Probably too far west for most of us from Derbyshire/Leicestershire west and then either too far north for any battleground snowfall. 

As it is currently, it looks like any mild air would quickly follow a marginal battleground snowfall.

Pretty miserable set up overall for vast swathes of the country, you just wouldn't know it because London might see a flake. 

[MattStoke]

On the face of it, it does seem pretty naff. The worst cold spell of the winter here in terms of snow.

I really think though that the east of the region will do alright and a few in the west might get lucky.

Met Office updated outlook sounds utterly boring. Fronts dying across the South West and then turning milder with rain in the west. No snow from Atlantic fronts and no snowy breakdown. Very disappointing.

Edited February 5, 2021 by MattStoke

[gig1968]

I agree we seem to be going from a fantastic cold spell with snow armageddon to a short lived bitterly cold spell. Even the met forecast had switched from yesterday. I'm sticking to lamp posting and the radar next week.