Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Agreed. I think it’s Monday onwards when the risk of snow showers will increase but the models will be useless at showing that. This happens every time we have such setup. People end up surprised as snow showers pile in from the North Sea because models and apps show nothing.

Aye, certainly streamers will exist, depends where in midlands, N England usually best with N Stoke

just 'ope its not a Dec 2002, not a flake until a few wet flakes from breakdown on Thurs 12th, Fri 13th it was over

Edited February 5, 2021 by I remember Atlantic 252

[MattStoke]

Nice ICON for Saturday night.

[DIS1970]

Very cold for 4/5 days, yes, but with straight easterly winds, forget any heavy falls of snow.

[Adzyy]

We have gone from non stop snow from 9pm tonight through to Monday evening to absolutely no snow symbols all week! 

I think it will just be a case of seeing what falls from the sky if anything. Hoping the risk returns but not getting my hopes up for anything now.

[BarometerCat]

I wouldn’t worry about discussion in the mod thread, it is often from an IMBY perspective, or deliberate trolling.  We have some of the most impressive charts we could expect in the real near term, from Sunday onwards! Maybe not whole region but a good period of cold and chance of snow coming up. 

Anyone predicted warm SW flow yet?

 

[Vmistry]

Does anyone else feel a bit disappointed with this all. Looked like a snowy period for us a couple of days ago and now it’s going to be bone dry

[shunthebartlett92]

Just now, Vmistry said:

Does anyone else feel a bit disappointed with this all. Looked like a snowy period for us a couple of days ago and now it’s going to be bone dry

i wouldnt dismiss anything at this stage as the position of hidden troughs can pep up precipitation in places, and id still say well all see some falling snow at some stage over the next week.

[WelfordRd]

3 minutes ago, Vmistry said:

Does anyone else feel a bit disappointed with this all. Looked like a snowy period for us a couple of days ago and now it’s going to be bone dry

Yeah I am worried about this dry shield at the moment being bang over us. Need this low to be 50-75 miles Northwestwards or it needs to clear the SE quick. If we get the middle ground I think we are knackered l. 

Would take us missing it on Sunday to get the chance of some decent snow on Monday via showers. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by WelfordRd

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Vmistry said:

Does anyone else feel a bit disappointed with this all. Looked like a snowy period for us a couple of days ago and now it’s going to be bone dry

Sunday bone dry, but should be snow Mon to Thurs, before less cold air spreads NE on Thurs night

yes Welford, or can say 50-100 miles further SE, so we get the showers

Edited February 5, 2021 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Shezale coventry]

35 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Nice ICON for Saturday night.

Sat night into sunday is looking interesting now as the gfs is showing the same as icon. It could be rain to snow event with the east of our region doing very well could be a nice little suprise! The beeb are now showing a period of snow for coventry over 8 hours sat into Sunday!

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Shezale coventry said:

Sat night into sunday is looking interesting now as the gfs is showing the same as icon. It could be rain to snow event with the east of our region doing very well could be a nice little suprise! The beeb are now showing a period of snow for coventry over 8 hours sat into Sunday!

Met Office warning issues yesterday mentions this. Warnings should be updated within the next hour.

[weirpig]

Saturday night looking good for the midlands   then streamers galore.  were they setup is anyones guess but  they will move far inland    

[BarometerCat]

28 minutes ago, Shezale coventry said:

Sat night into sunday is looking interesting now as the gfs is showing the same as icon. It could be rain to snow event with the east of our region doing very well could be a nice little suprise! The beeb are now showing a period of snow for coventry over 8 hours sat into Sunday!

Yes, Arpege and EURO4 has heavier precipitation Midnight through early hours.   Definitely interesting.   Not sure what models are going for dry but maybe location dependent.  SE Midlands looking ok too.  I think this one is going to be a nowcast radar watch more than anything!

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, B-C said:

Yes, Arpege and EURO4 has heavier precipitation Midnight through early hours.   Definitely interesting.   Not sure what models are going for dry but maybe location dependent.  SE Midlands looking ok too.  I think this one is going to be a nowcast radar watch more than anything!

Arperge  is very consistant in bringing a streamer over the region     

[weirpig]

NNM  looks great for saturday  sunday

[MattStoke]

Warning for Saturday night/Sunday trimmed eastwards and I’m not longer in it, just as the models started to look more promising here.

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Warning for Saturday night/Sunday trimmed eastwards and I’m not longer in it, just as the models started to look more promising here.

They look great for saturday/sunday      i expect warnings  in the morning if it still shows as it does today  Arome  as us now smack in the snow zone   compared to its 0z run

Edited February 5, 2021 by weirpig

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

They look great for saturday/sunday      i expect warnings  in the morning if it still shows as it does today  Arome  as us now smack in the snow zone   comoared to its 0z run

I am though relieved that large parts of the country missing out Saturday night and then seeing nothing for the rest of this event means the south east won’t see sleet for a couple of hours before they get their foot of snow. That benefits us all, according to the completely non-biased model thread.

Edited February 5, 2021 by MattStoke

[gig1968]

I remember reading in the model thread how the Midlands and most of the country was going to be buried in snow up to a foot deep.  Good job I didn't invest in thousands of snow shovels. We get the easterly bitter cold but not much snow.. However we have had our fair share of snow this winter in Birmingham.

[Malarky]

3 minutes ago, gig1968 said:

I remember reading in the model thread how the Midlands and most of the country was going to be buried in snow up to a foot deep.  Good job I didn't invest in thousands of snow shovels. We get the easterly bitter cold but not much snow.. However we have had our fair share of snow this winter in Birmingham.

This is still a possibility as the week goes on. Signs that Scandi isn't finished after this "aperetif" as well. Patience :)

[Gord]

Who remembers Sunday 20th January 2013?

The southeast had snow warnings (we had already had a large fall on the Friday before). The southeast got their snow, but the precipitation managed to stretch out like a finger towards us and we were issued a very last minute warning. 20cm was the total here after that one. After the mudfest of early January, that was such a great winter. The following March was even better.

So even though our warnings have been dropped this far west, you just never know. And like others have said, there are always showers/streamers etc. February 2nd 2009 is the best example here of that.

I think there's also a real chance we'll get nothing. But if that happens, look on the bright side. It'll be dry and that would actually be quite welcome right now.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Gord

[weirpig]

Arome is good also for  saturday.  8-9 hours of snow  shown across the region     not a bad set of 6zs

NNM 2k  also

Edited February 5, 2021 by weirpig

[DIS1970]

Might be an idea to download & watch that disaster of a disaster movie "Apocalypse of Ice" with all this talk of snow and ice on the main subject matter.

[sheikhy]

10 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Arome is good also for  saturday.  8-9 hours of snow  shown across the region     not a bad set of 6zs

NNM 2k  also

Is that for the widely for the region or just the west mids?!!

[Shezale coventry]

Just seen the warnings. Great for the east midlands crap for the w midlands and the north of our region.