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Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Should get further inland than that? no high ground in the way

    Possibly. Models do normally struggle with how far showers go.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
    18 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Don’t hurt yourself 😃

    32DFD9B0-E574-40D7-917E-BB68CDADAC61.png

    Ooolala. But  correct me if I'm wrong but those charts always use the 1mm of rain to 1cm of snow formula, which is nearly always very over zealous ?

    Edited by kmanmx
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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    4 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

    Ooolala. But  correct me if I'm wrong but those charts always use the 1mm of rain to 1cm of snow formula, which is nearly always very over zealous ?

    That’s about right for wet snow. For the dry snow we will have this time it’s more like 1.4cm of snow for every 1mm of rain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.
    4 hours ago, sheikhy said:

    Latest 06z  ecm gives you 20cms +👌🤞

    Well , we'll soon find out.

    I'll be amazed if we got more than the other week.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
    3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    That’s about right for wet snow. For the dry snow we will have this time it’s more like 1.4cm of snow for every 1mm of rain.

    Wow that's a lot. I always thought 1mm = 1cm was about best case scenario. Well, I hope you're right!

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

    image.png.e1421aab94542e8336cfad685e9813

    Brings a brief spell of snow westwards across the Midlands Saturday night.

    Plenty of snow showers packing in from the North Sea thereafter, particularly Monday onwards.

    577DB1B2-6113-4755-8B02-3BD8B641967F.jpeg

    7FFE9A8F-507D-49CB-966E-496ABF357FAB.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

    Brings a brief spell of snow westwards across the Midlands Saturday night.

    Plenty of snow showers packing in from the North Sea thereafter, particularly Monday onwards.

    577DB1B2-6113-4755-8B02-3BD8B641967F.jpeg

    7FFE9A8F-507D-49CB-966E-496ABF357FAB.jpeg

    Yep  potential is there    not boring at least 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hinckley
  • Location: Hinckley

    I think Sundays event won't be much to write home about now, might see a bit in the early hours so on to the next chase snow showers! Lol. When will we know a little more about how many are forcast and what are the best models for showing it? 

    Edited by WelfordRd
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    Posted
  • Location: coventry
  • Location: coventry
    1 minute ago, WelfordRd said:

    I think Sundays event won't be much to write home about now, might see a bit in the early hours so on to the next chase snow showers! Lol. When will we know a little more about how many are forcast and what are the best models for showing it? 

    Well normally i would head into the mod thread and get some experienced opinion from the likes of steve m BFTP and the old time The in the sky but its loaded with nut jobs at the moment!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hinckley
  • Location: Hinckley
    Just now, Shezale coventry said:

    Well normally i would head into the mod thread and get some experienced opinion from the likes of steve m BFTP and the old time The in the sky but its loaded with nut jobs at the moment!

    Tell me about it, does help that the Mods are letting most of it happen. They must be from Kent! Lol 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Now could the FAX look okay for Midlands? trough is nowhere near the SE, so dosen't look like any frontal snow there, meaning N Sea snow machine? rather than a dry shield

    fax72s.gif?04-12

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    17 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Now could the FAX look okay for Midlands? trough is nowhere near the SE, so dosen't look like any frontal snow there, meaning N Sea snow machine? rather than a dry shield

    fax72s.gif?04-12

    Hope to see some North Sea troughs appearing on the fax charts soon. Assume it’s probably too early for that detail.

    Edited by MattStoke
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    Interesting bit of weather watching coming up! See how it pans out over the next few days to firm up on details.

    I am confident the showers blowing in will deliver something more than nothing especially with the general temps! I am in a battle to get the new summer house constructed before hand!

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
    36 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Hope to see some North Sea troughs appearing on the fax charts soon. Assume it’s probably too early for that detail.

    Think you are right ... think we might get a few flurries from this ....thinks could change but our bite of the cherry 🍒 dosent look good this weekend 

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    Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

    We may miss the main front but the further South East the main front goes the more the North Sea will fire up and blow streamers and showers well in land ala Arpege.

     

    SmartSelect_20210204-210444_Firefox.thumb.gif.3ddcf74ec0d118d34aeb87900bb22a0b.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
    3 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

    We may miss the main front but the further South East the main front goes the more the North Sea will fire up and blow streamers and showers well in land ala Arpege.

     

    SmartSelect_20210204-210444_Firefox.thumb.gif.3ddcf74ec0d118d34aeb87900bb22a0b.gif

    Yes one of those situations where you either want to be in the heart of front or be far away to allow for convective showers. The ICON 18Z seems to have moved the precip further SE 

    Screen Shot 2021-02-04 at 21.07.46.png

    Screen Shot 2021-02-04 at 21.07.36.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
    6 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

    Yes one of those situations where you either want to be in the heart of front or be far away to allow for convective showers. The ICON 18Z seems to have moved the precip further SE 

    Screen Shot 2021-02-04 at 21.07.46.png

    Screen Shot 2021-02-04 at 21.07.36.png

    Yep at this rate it might miss the UK and head into the channel.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
    1 minute ago, snowangel32 said:

    Yep at this rate it might miss the UK and head into the channel.

    I would not mind if that happened tbh, although there would probably be uproar on the MAD thread!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    3 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

    Yep at this rate it might miss the UK and head into the channel.

    hopefully aye, but unlikely

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Stoke-on-trent
    4 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

    Yep at this rate it might miss the UK and head into the channel.

    I imagine the MOD thread will spend a few pages discussing a 50 mile shift lol 

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    Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
    2 minutes ago, Weatherman662 said:

    I imagine the MOD thread will spend a few pages discussing a 50 mile shift lol 

    Yep To me, To you lol 😆

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    Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
    4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    hopefully aye, but unlikely

    Yh I think a Kent clipper looks most likely. But still another 50 miles SE and it misses. Twitchy bums are showing already lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    Much better GFS 18z for the Midlands.  More of a direct easterly. Streamers right across the Midlands 😍

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