Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[shunthebartlett92]

11 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

Yes, I will agree with that sentiment, we seemed to do better than usual last summer for thunder and lightening, we had some corkers around these parts.  Usually though it seems the eastern regions do better for thunderstorms.  

I think it’s power of balance; the weather gods like to see both parts of the promised land get their fair share of exciting weather but in all seriousness, convection can be fairly spontaneous when we have a bay of biscay plume and really both parts of the mids are fairly well balanced in terms of the amount of thunderstorms I would think?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Storms are definitely something is in the N of the midlands cannot moan about. Last year was one of, if not the, best storm seasons I’ve ever seen.

[Andypvfc]

Oh well if we miss the Snow we can always look forward to some severe rain events with Global warming.

I still cannot believe grown men throwing toys around over the Weather. . Far more serious things to worry about folks. End of the day, if we miss out this Year there is always next.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Andypvfc

[MattStoke]

Just looked at the overnight model runs.

[Dancerwithwings]

28 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Just looked at the overnight model runs.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Dancerwithwings

[MattStoke]

Experience tells me that things rarely end up as extreme as the model output suggests at this range, but it’s nice to dream!

[WelfordRd]

Think the GFS has been on the wine this morning with these snow depths this morning. 

 

[MattStoke]

15 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:

Think the GFS has been on the wine this morning with these snow depths this morning. 

 

I see your GFS and I raise you an ECM.

[WelfordRd]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I see your GFS and I raise you an ECM.

I assume this isn't from showers from the east and more of a frontal battle from the SW mate? I think the snow for sunday keeps going that little bit further SE with nearly every run?

[MattStoke]

Just now, WelfordRd said:

I assume this isn't from showers from the east and more of a frontal battle from the SW mate? I think the snow for sunday keeps going that little bit further SE with nearly every run?

It has 4 major snow events for southern areas and the Midlands beyond mid week. It doesn’t tend to pick up shower activity well at all.

[Gustywind]

54 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Experience tells me that things rarely end up as extreme as the model output suggests at this range, but it’s nice to dream!

Well maybe, but then we live in times when extreme weather events seem to be becoming increasingly common. The BFTE from March 2018 was remarkable from a cold perspective, today’s runs equally incredible, more from a snow perspective.

Personally I thought the 12z’s yesterday were being far too progressive removing northern blocking & reinstalling the Atlantic in charge. Too abrupt a change for me, this mornings runs look far more realistic to me, with blocking still evident & fronts held up at the end of next week. 
 

Things could downgrade though the pattern looks fairly set to me till the middle of next week at least, it’s just the end of the week that needs resolving, but I’d not be surprised if it ends up similar to this mornings runs.

EDIT - Most likely way we’ll see a downgrade I reckon is for the front at end of next week to be weaker & go through France instead, so blizzard misses to the south. We’d obviously stay cold in such scenario though with snow showers likely!

Edited February 4, 2021 by Gustywind

[andy_leics22]

9 hours ago, Shezale coventry said:

Easterly hardly ever delivers for us in the midlands! Well coventry we are to far inland for the heavy snow showers and once the atlantic comes in the mild will win! 

Shez, I lived in Leicester for the first 24 years of my life and we always used to do quite well from a Beast From The East! If a streamer sets up in the right position, we've had 5cm+ on occasion. You're only around 25 miles South West of Leicester, you could do quite well if a streamer starts up Any showers will be blowing in on a strong Easterly wind (25mph+) so getting as far inland as Cov should be no problem.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Amazing EC, with the cold staying, Atlantic going under, GFS though great for snow on Sunday, but Atlantic in Friday

[Shezale coventry]

10 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

Shez, I lived in Leicester for the first 24 years of my life and we always used to do quite well from a Beast From The East! If a streamer sets up in the right position, we've had 5cm+ on occasion. You're only around 25 miles South West of Leicester, you could do quite well if a streamer starts up Any showers will be blowing in on a strong Easterly wind (25mph+) so getting as far inland as Cov should be no problem.

Well after the recent model runs we all could be buried next week i might be eating a big humble pie!

[Shezale coventry]

[BarometerCat]

Just seen the 0z gfs. Seriously?

Will be interesting closer to the time, definitely watching this one!

[MattStoke]

ICON brings fronts back further north across the Midlands over the weekend.

[WelfordRd]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ICON brings fronts back further north across the Midlands over the weekend.

 

Any idea mate when the exact track of the low will be pretty nailed or will it go right to the wire and be a radar/lamppost watch. The models seem to change very run which is normal but small changes may have dramatic effect for snow on Sunday for all us Midlanders 

Edited February 4, 2021 by WelfordRd

[MattStoke]

13 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:

Any idea mate when the exact track of the low will be pretty nailed or will it go right to the wire and be a radar/lamppost watch. The models seem to change very run which is normal but small changes may have dramatic effect for snow on Sunday for all us Midlanders 

Probably once we’re about 48-72 hours out I reckon the models will have a decent handle on it but it can still change a little right up to the last moment.

Edited February 4, 2021 by MattStoke

[WelfordRd]

11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Probably once we’re about 48-72 hours out I reckon the models will have a decent handle on it but it can still change a little right up to the last moment.

Cheers mate, yeah more of a now cast as we approach it. Think we need to hope for good showers from the east but that is dependant on direction and toughs. Streamers are great if you are in one but if your 5 miles south or north its like chinese torture! Lol hope all the Midlands get some decent falls and it says around for a bit. The other week was great but it was gone in 36 hrs 

[tyson99]

Maybe I’m reading these incorrectly but North Nottinghamshire / Derbyshire  ( 65 miles inland from the wash ) seems to be on the verge of missing any accumulation of snow ?

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, tyson99 said:

Maybe I’m reading these incorrectly but North Nottinghamshire / Derbyshire  ( 65 miles inland from the wash ) seems to be on the verge of missing any accumulation of snow ?

 

Sure you'll see something, all a bit uncertain yet, be amazed if anyone mind you didn't see a flake, but aye SE areas will get most, especially on Sunday

[WelfordRd]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Sure you'll see something, all a bit uncertain yet, be amazed if anyone mind you didn't see a flake, but aye SE areas will get most, especially on Sunday

Think the further east you are the better chance of seeing decent snow but suppose it will all depend on how big the showers are and how far they will get. I am hoping we get something decent but Hinckley is pretty much bang in the middle of England, would love to say we are East but that's wishful thinking 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:

Think the further east you are the better chance of seeing decent snow but suppose it will all depend on how big the showers are and how far they will get. I am hoping we get something decent but Hinckley is pretty much bang in the middle of England, would love to say we are East but that's wishful thinking 

My thinking is, nothing on Sunday, from late Sunday night, should have decent stuff, nearly always done well off N Sea showers, Feb '18, Dec 2010, and loads before then

[wolvesman]

Overall I think the Midlands (particularly the further East you are at least initially) looks to be in a reasonable position for this cold snap. Whilst the SE and possibly the SW later look to hold the jackpot winning tickets they do come at a higher risk and we may well end up with pretty good results throughout the week but at a much reduced risk.