Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[weirpig]

having just seen the models   mainly the 0z   it looks like  its again a west of the midlands going by these.  The icon 6z  brings the band more East    still loads to be resolved 

Edited January 7, 2021 by weirpig

[sheikhy]

Just now, weirpig said:

having just seen the models   mainly the 0z   it looks like  its again a west of the midlands going by these.  The icon 6z  brings the band more East    still loads to be resolved 

Net wx-sr model had the snow earlier and all the way into east anglia!!!its crazy differences at just a few hours out!

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Beautiful frosty morning

 

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Net wx-sr model had the snow earlier and all the way into east anglia!!!its crazy differences at just a few hours out!

It is mate  the Arp 6z  brings diddly 

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

It is mate  the Arp 6z  brings diddly 

The plot thickens!!!!

[MattStoke]

Arpege hasn’t updated yet.

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Arpege hasn’t updated yet.

French view

[mother nature rocks]

Expecting snow warnings to be online in the next hour or two  They won’t want to be caught out ️

[MKN]

1 minute ago, mother nature rocks said:

Expecting snow warnings to be online in the next hour or two  They won’t want to be caught out ️

Id imagine given UKV and arpege outputs the words patchy, light, Rain sleet snow, possible accumulations 1-3cms in some areas will about it

[shunthebartlett92]

I certainly wont expect this will get resolved as theres discrepancies across the board. Might check back in tonight and see what things are looking like, but a lot will change in the next 12 hours or so.

[mother nature rocks]

GFS 6z still going for it... we shall see

B3414921-603D-442B-823A-6F492978E6A9.webp

[MKN]

6z gfs para...

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, MKN said:

6z gfs para...

I just cant believe the differences with each run and model!!its pointless looking at models now it really is!!this event is the definition of radar watching to see what we get!!

[Walsall Wood Snow]

[shunthebartlett92]

Looking at the models; south shropshire into the welsh borders looks to be a good spot, but again, expect changes!

[MKN]

12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I just cant believe the differences with each run and model!!its pointless looking at models now it really is!!this event is the definition of radar watching to see what we get!!

Il check the 12zs before seeing if keeping an eye on the radar is worthwhile

[weirpig]

Arome  similar to the Arp.

6zs  not the best to be honest

[MKN]

MET O update...

 

Updated: 10:40 (UTC) on Thu 7 Jan 2021

Reason for update

The warning has been updated to make this a dual snow/ice warning with the area extended southwards across more of central and southwest England. The warning end time has also been delayed until the end of Friday.

Showers, a mixture of rain sleet and snow, are expected to fall onto frozen surfaces leading to icy stretches forming. In addition, a more persistent spell of rain and hill snow is likely to move south across northern England and north Wales during Thursday evening and night. This then gradually moving into parts of central and southwest England and southeast Wales on Friday. Whilst ice is expected to be the most widespread hazard, snow is likely in places too. Snow is most likely to fall over The Pennines, North York Moors and the high ground of Wales and southwest England, with 2-5 cm possible here. Elsewhere, whilst some snowfall is possible, accumulations are likely to be slight and temporary. Freezing fog patches are also likely to persist and may prove an additional hazard with areas of visibility less than 100 m at times.

[mother nature rocks]

Like I said

[MattStoke]

Still mentioning little snow away from the highest hills. Don’t understand it.

Edited January 7, 2021 by MattStoke

[weirpig]

Harmonie  6z  much better

Along with the NMM

 

Could be anything at the moment

[sheikhy]

The fact that theyve just put out the snow warning so late makes me think its a developing situation and no model will have this correct yet!

[Midlands Ice Age]

No one with any temps from last night?

I am currently at -1.6C (11:00) with mist and about 200m visibility.

Minimum overnight -5.2C, just after 05:00. Coldest of the year so far. This is from Central Solihull.

Lower temps must have been recorded in more rural districts?

 

MIA

Edited January 7, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Iceicles

 

[el tiempo]

Diamond dust in the air here atm