Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[MattStoke]

ECM is really a continuation of the winter so far, with marginal snow events for the Midlands. These marginal setups often deliver more snow here than the significant cold spells, so I wouldn’t be too unhappy with that just so long as they aren’t ‘events’ like today. All today brought was several hours of light, wet snow that didn’t settle.

Would though prefer that snow event thrown out by the GFS and GEM for just over a week’s time.

All academic beyond a few days, of course. I just like to muse over things.

Edited January 30, 2021 by MattStoke

[Andypvfc]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

ECM is really a continuation of the winter so far, with marginal snow events for the Midlands. These marginal setups often deliver more snow here than the significant cold spells, so I wouldn’t be too unhappy with that just so long as they aren’t ‘events’ like today. All today brought was several hours of light, wet snow that didn’t settle.

Would though prefer that snow event thrown out by the GFS and GEM for just over a week’s time.

All academic beyond a few days, of course. I just like to muse over things.

And that still misses Kidsgrove as that's the little bare spot at the top of the purple.

I still won't be happy until we get the 6ft drifts from the early 80s back lol

Edited January 30, 2021 by Andypvfc

[MattStoke]

ICON becomes the latest model to give some snow Monday morning. Maybe a dusting for some of us.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Seems quiet on here, all forum, considering snow on the way Sun-Mon

[markw2680]

22 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Seems quiet on here, all forum, considering snow on the way Sun-Mon

Do you really believe there will be snow? I’m not so sure personally 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Do you really believe there will be snow? I’m not so sure personally 

 

not a lot, but more chance than today

[MattStoke]

While the ECM goes further north with Tuesday’s snow, the GFS goes further south.

[MattStoke]

A few models still give a dumping of snow for the north of the region on Tuesday but the general trend has been to shift things further north and bring in milder air more quickly. Looking more likely to be sleet/cold rain at this rate.

Still a return to cold by next weekend but depth and length of cold uncertain.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

A few models still give a dumping of snow for the north of the region on Tuesday but the general trend has been to shift things further north and bring in milder air more quickly. Looking more likely to be sleet/cold rain at this rate.

Still a return to cold by next weekend but depth and length of cold uncertain.

today/tomorrow dosen't look good now, going to miss here, Tues never really on anyway

if EC is right then very little cold at all

[MattStoke]

I wouldn’t completely rule out a patchy dusting for parts of the region late tonight/early tomorrow. Models really struggling with that one.

A couple of models bring heavy snow up here on Tuesday but most just blast the milder conditions through.

GFS looks less severe in terms of cold for next weekend onwards than it did last night (Quelle surprise!) and the ECM continues to be an absolute bore.

[nobble]

Latest forecast UNINSPIRING 

[sheikhy]

Yup ukmo and gfs the only ones with the snowline further south from today actually lol!!ecm is bad man!!worrying times!!

[MattStoke]

Ironic that the period that is normally the coldest for the U.K. climatically and that has looked most promising for this winter, currently looks pretty drab compared to the past few weeks. However, as we know, snow chances can pop up at short notice, and that’s always a possibility while conditions remain on the cold side overall. 

[Ms Rock & Blues]

I'm banking on mid to late February for snow from what I have read on other sites. My birthday end  of    the month, I sometimes am lucky for that day!

[MKN]

Surprised at how poor the meto have been with the warnings they issued both for yesterday (prior to its update) and for the mon to weds period. Both events never really had much support for any significant snow for the vast majority in the warning areas. This is following on from them issuing an amber warning when the snow was starting to die out in the areas they issued the warning for last Sunday.  The so called 100million quid super computer needs chucking in the bin

Edited January 31, 2021 by MKN

[MattStoke]

Most computer models showed significant snow for early next week. I don’t know why people keep claiming they didn’t and that it never looked on. They have though clearly pushed things further north over the past couple of days, so I would expect the warnings to be trimmed back to just northern England and Scotland. The warnings were always going to be trimmed and refined as confidence in the detail increased. The fact the situation has changed doesn’t mean that it was never likely to happen or that the data didn’t back up the original warnings!

At the moment the only risk of any wintry precipitation in the ‘reliable’ timeframe is a patchy dusting for some of us tomorrow. Then we look towards next weekend onwards.

Edited January 31, 2021 by MattStoke

[I remember Atlantic 252]

band still moving NE, still not expecting much here tonight

[MKN]

11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Most computer models showed significant snow for early next week. I don’t know why people keep claiming they didn’t and that it never looked on. They have though clearly pushed things further north over the past couple of days, so I would expect the warnings to be trimmed back to just northern England and Scotland. The warnings were always going to be trimmed and refined as confidence in the detail increased. The fact the situation has changed doesn’t mean that it was never likely to happen or that the data didn’t back up the original warnings!

At the moment the only risk of any wintry precipitation in the ‘reliable’ timeframe is a patchy dusting for some of us tomorrow. Then we look towards next weekend onwards.

Not for the midlands they didnt. Ecm did for a time and arpege had 1 run that did also. Gfs and others have always shown 850 temps that wouldnt support snow south of about Sheffield and if so it would be very brief. Anyway 06z gfs easterly still on the cards details slightly different but overall theme very good.

Another impressive point from the 06z gfs would be that from around 3pm Tuesday parts of scotland could potentially see almost constant snowfall for 6/7days! Thats on top of the already stacked mountains. Frustrating for the skiers up there as it looks like it would have been the best season ever had it not been for corona. 

[MattStoke]

NMM, GFS, ECM, ICON and Aperge have all been showing significant snow for early next week but have now dropped it. I don’t think the warnings were wrong based on the data at the time they were issued, but they covered a large area and timeframe due to the uncertainty at such range and were always going to be trimmed and re-fined. I don’t think it’s correct to say it was never likely. If it was never likely, so many models wouldn’t have shown it. They could though have waited until today to issue warnings. There wasn’t a need to get the warnings out so early.

GFS 6z shows how a less deeply cold pattern can actually deliver more snow for more areas than a significantly cold one. Poor for coastal and southern areas though. Those areas do normally need something more significant, with some exceptions.

 

[MattStoke]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

band still moving NE, still not expecting much here tonight

Seems to be a separate area of precipitation that the models bring in across the Midlands tomorrow morning. Patchy and nothing significant. Maybe a dusting for some of us.

Mind you, the Arome does bring some of this through the Midlands tonight.

 

The Harmonie too.

Edited January 31, 2021 by MattStoke

[MattStoke]

Oh for goodness sake. The Aperge now brings back Tuesday’s snow risk for the north of the region

Edited January 31, 2021 by MattStoke

[Ms Rock & Blues]

26 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Most computer models showed significant snow for early next week. I don’t know why people keep claiming they didn’t and that it never looked on. They have though clearly pushed things further north over the past couple of days, so I would expect the warnings to be trimmed back to just northern England and Scotland. The warnings were always going to be trimmed and refined as confidence in the detail increased. The fact the situation has changed doesn’t mean that it was never likely to happen or that the data didn’t back up the original warnings!

At the moment the only risk of any wintry precipitation in the ‘reliable’ timeframe is a patchy dusting for some of us tomorrow. Then we look towards next weekend onwards.

Yes, you are correct, we were definitely on for a good event. It seemed suddenly to disappear to me

[MattStoke]

Well, I was wrong. The Met Office warning has been updated but the North Midlands is still covered. The only change is bring forward the start time to 10pm Monday.

[Snowyowl9]

-3.0C Last night the extremely icy dangerous roads....

And it drifted more overnight.

Biggest drifts since the mini beast March 18th 2018.

One lane blocked.

 

 

 

 

[phil b]

Surf and snow!?? Looks Fun

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Edited January 31, 2021 by phil b