Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[Midlander]

Just now, Snowyowl9 said:

4 inches of snow...

Today is a first as its so wet underfoot but its been drifting so easily even on roofs down here...4 foot drift up the lane..1.3c max.

That's great to hear, I assume you must be pretty elevated +200m ?

[Aidloz]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Keeps the snow risk going for much longer on Tuesday. Could be a decent dumping for the northern half of the region I reckon, so long as it doesn’t trend northward.

Fingers and toes crossed  

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, Aidloz said:

Fingers and toes crossed  

Models have trended northward with it. Hence the warnings being trimmed and removed away from the north of the region. Don’t want to see that trend continue!

[MattStoke]

4 hours ago, sheikhy said:

 

Latest NMM shows similar.

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Latest NMM shows similar.

Any pics mate!its something the ecm picked up on earlier but no other model had it!

[Dancerwithwings]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Latest NMM shows similar.

What NMM’s you looking at if you don’t mind me asking 

[Dancerwithwings]

Looking good for some decent cold uppers come next weekend 

[Eskimo]

As I've said before, the ICON in the national view switches to a weird low-res problem after the 78hr mark. It's not worth looking at it post 78 hours. 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Eskimo

[MattStoke]

NMM 0.05 on Meteociel.

Looks decent for a spell of snow early Tuesday too.

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

As I've said before, the ICON in the national view switches to a weird low-res problem after the 78hr mark. It's not worth looking at it post 78 hours. 

ICON looks good for snow on Tuesday before that point.

Edited January 30, 2021 by MattStoke

[sheikhy]

The ukmo looks good for snowfall further south between tuesday and thursday!!further southward push and we are all in the game!!

[Snowyowl9]

1 hour ago, AppleUK 123 said:

That's great to hear, I assume you must be pretty elevated +200m ?

1000 feet here....

Its been a great day been outside making the most of it.

I love watching the drifting whipping up over the fields,I live for this.

[MattStoke]

Just now, sheikhy said:

The ukmo looks good for snowfall further south between tuesday and thursday!!further southward push and we are all in the game!!

Any charts for that? Thought UKMO publicly available charts were very limited.

[MattStoke]

12 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

NMM 0.05 on Meteociel.

Looks decent for a spell of snow early Tuesday too.

The Hirlam too has precipitation for Monday. Doesn’t look significant but the models appear to be having a lot of trouble with this one.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

key EC 12Z coming up! another amazing GFS for this time next week,

[Midlander]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

key EC 12Z coming up! another amazing GFS for this time next week,

Yeah the GEM was amazing as well! Personally preferred the GEM evolution over the GFS, as it was far more snowy!

[Snowy L]

37 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

The ukmo looks good for snowfall further south between tuesday and thursday!!further southward push and we are all in the game!!

Southward push would hopefully mean better chances for long term cold too.

[sheikhy]

Snow event pretty much gone on ecm 12z for tuesday!!more for northern england in line with the warnings!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Snow event pretty much gone on ecm 12z for tuesday!!more for northern england in line with the warnings!

reminds me of last Tues, was never really on, tomorrow to Monday not looking great either

[Dancerwithwings]

Would any of you fancy a laugh after today’s come 

snow depths tomorrow regarding the 12z ECM output 

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Dancerwithwings

[MattStoke]

Lots of models bring a snow risk for Tuesday, so it’s not a case that this time it was never really on. The ECM doesn’t look nice though. Trending the wrong way. We either get a system that’s too weak and too far south, like today, or one that just barrels on through and brings rain.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Lots of models bring a snow risk for Tuesday, so it’s not a case that this time it was never really on. The ECM doesn’t look nice though. Trending the wrong way. We either get a system that’s too weak and too far south, like today, or one that just barrels on through and brings rain.

looks crap, but having said that, Sunday 7th Staffs gets buried! but prefer GFS I think, this is too messy

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

looks crap, but having said that, Sunday 7th Staffs gets buried! but prefer GFS I think, this is too messy

GFS and GEM remarkably similar for just over a week’s time. Both have a very cold easterly flow and bring in an area of low pressure that dumps copious amounts of snow across the country. I don’t recall seeing 2 models so similar at such long range before!

Probably both wrong

[shunthebartlett92]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS and GEM remarkably similar for just over a week’s time. Both have a very cold easterly flow and bring in an area of low pressure that dumps copious amounts of snow across the country. I don’t recall seeing 2 models so similar at such long range before!

Probably both wrong

we all know the golden rule beyond 24 hours at this stage   aka changes occur significantly beyond 24 horus unfortunately, trends are good though, no doubt about that.

[Summer of 95]

Went for a walk along the Offas Dyke path south of Oswestry, all still in Shropshire though. Lots of climbing so pics from different heights:

150m; wet and green 

200m; bit of slushy snow but lots of mud and water

250m; getting better, about 2cm wet snow on most areas but still a lot of wet mud on the path. 

290m; here the snow started becoming crunchy and covering the wettest part of the path, sticking to my boots instead of sliding off, about 4cm

330m; here right at the top it finally stopped dripping off trees and was about 6cm. Still no frozen ground and bits of water on some of the paths under the snow, but approaching what it was like at home last Sunday/Monday (though still a bit less snow and not as powdery)