Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[WelfordRd]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Mucch further east already!

What does this mean for the track? Other than the obvious lol ha ha 

[Eskimo]

12 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Just looked at some met office graphics on Twitter which they put on 5 minutes ago and didnt even reach Brum the line of snow. Hopeless! 

I just can't see it being that far south and west based on the radar returns. Think we'll get a much better idea by about midnight. 

[GokouD]

31 minutes ago, Klippieboo10 said:

That escalated quickly!!

That'll be just my luck, I thought it would be a fizzle for sure so I've left the big Tesco shop for tomorrow morning!

[sheikhy]

Confirmed it is much further north than forecast!!!

[Godber 1]

30 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Okay, so...the direction and exit point of the trough hasn't really changed much in the output, the differences in precipitation boundaries are to down to circulation. If we take the direction of the trough and combine the northern limit of the precipitation in Ireland across and down through England, you get something like below - quite similar to recent output to be honest. The northern limit would be somewhere around Stoke. However, the heaviest falls would be across through the West Midlands and down into the Home counties. 

The southern limit would be the black line as the precipitation is above the circulation. There won't be issues with marginality for the vast majority of us so where the front stalls, pivots and slowly sinks south, I can see some significant snow falling. 

This technique worked a few weeks ago when Wales got hit by quite a bit of snow, however...I am in no way saying this will work again!

 

works for me.

[Battleground Snow]

Latest icon is fantastic for us... Has the pivot over midlands. Could be between 6-8 hours of moderate Snowfall... 

[MattStoke]

ICON 18z.

[sheikhy]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Latest icon is fantastic for us... Has the pivot over midlands. Could be between 6-8 hours of moderate Snowfall... 

Its gona go further north!!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

15 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Confirmed it is much further north than forecast!!!

depends on how it travels, direct East it's game on, but it may track ESE

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

ICON 18z.

Wow wow!!!!!gfs have you done one on all the other models!!!!

[MKN]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ICON 18z.

As a word of caution the 9pm icon output doesn't match the current radar that accurately. So who knows. Albeit thats more in terms of how far east it is currently so it could still end up roughly same position tomorrow just a bit sooner. 

[MattStoke]

If this comes off, I fear for my life in here. I think I’ll be lynched.

Edited January 23, 2021 by MattStoke

[MKN]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ICON 18z.

As a word of caution the 9pm icon output doesn't match the current radar that accurately. So who knows. Albeit thats more in terms of how far east it is currently so it could still end up roughly same position tomorrow just a bit sooner. 

[sheikhy]

Just now, MattStoke said:

If this comes off, I fear for my life in here. I think I’ll be lunched.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/1780/iconeu_uk1-45-25-0_wwh2.png

Icon could be playin catch up!!!the higher total could be further north!

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, MKN said:

As a word of caution the 9pm icon output doesn't match the current radar that accurately. So who knows. Albeit thats more in terms of how far east it is currently so it could still end up roughly same position tomorrow just a bit sooner. 

Mate when you look at that you worry we might be top far west!!!

[kold weather]

Just now, MKN said:

As a word of caution the 9pm icon output doesn't match the current radar that accurately. So who knows. Albeit thats more in terms of how far east it is currently so it could still end up roughly same position tomorrow just a bit sooner. 

I'd say that it being further east is probably better for you guys up there.

Would suggest a better chance that the pivot zone will be further north than some of the other models have been suggesting which are further west and develop the low further SW as well as a consequence.

As a tip, watch the pressure falls over Ireland in the next few hours, that will give a good steer as to what model suite has the best grip.

[sheikhy]

Just now, kold weather said:

I'd say that it being further east is probably better for you guys up there.

Would suggest a better chance that the pivot zone will be further north than some of the other models have been suggesting which are further west and develop the low further SW as well as a consequence.

As a tip, watch the pressure falls over Ireland in the next few hours, that will give a good steer as to what model suite has the best grip.

Kold weather this is looking really good for the midlands now!!!its further east than any of the models forecasted!

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

If this comes off, I fear for my life in here. I think I’ll be lynched.

If arome shifts it north later I'll be confident on the Midlands being the best placed.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, MKN said:

As a word of caution the 9pm icon output doesn't match the current radar that accurately. So who knows. Albeit thats more in terms of how far east it is currently so it could still end up roughly same position tomorrow just a bit sooner. 

Is it my imagination or does this think look skinny? looks like on that it'll sweep through in 30 minutes

[Supacell]

I wonder if it can get far enough north to hit here.

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Supacell said:

I wonder if it can get far enough north to hit here.

Derbyshire? Wouldn't rule it out with how much icon has adjusted... Almost a 50 mile shift from its 12z run

[MKN]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Is it my imagination or does this think look skinny? looks like on that it'll sweep through in 30 minutes

If you look at my pic the icon would suggest the bulk is not showing on radar right now as its to the west of northern ireland currently 

[Eye to the sky]

3 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I wonder if it can get far enough north to hit here.

Would be great if it did.Lots of falling snow today,but didn't settle for long.Fingers crossed for later tonight\tomorrow.

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Is it my imagination or does this think look skinny? looks like on that it'll sweep through in 30 minutes

Its not expected to be too thick, hence why most forecasts are going for 5-10cms at most, rather than 20-30cms that you could see in a large thick pivoting band.

[Fozfoster]

 White gold potential back