Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Tomorrows could be our day guys!!after all the blood sweat and tears all winter the midlands COULD be the sweet spot!!!!oh god please let this event happen!!!

that the band over Ireland? looks a bit skinny

[sheikhy]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

that the band over Ireland? looks a bit skinny

Yup thats the band and it looks further east already!!!!

[WelfordRd]

Let's hope those areas that haven't had any actually get some snow tomororw and if anyone has to miss out it those that have had a lot more than anywhere else. Not naming any areas! Lol 

[cheshire snow]

Just now, WelfordRd said:

Let's hope those areas that haven't had any actually get some snow tomororw and if anyone has to miss out it those that have had a lot more than anywhere else. Not naming any areas! Lol 

I agree unfortunately the weather doesn't work like that.

C.S

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, WelfordRd said:

Let's hope those areas that haven't had any actually get some snow tomororw and if anyone has to miss out it those that have had a lot more than anywhere else. Not naming any areas! Lol 

Don’t know where you could possibly mean. *Whistle*.

Latest UKV.

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Don’t know where you could possibly mean. *Whistle*.

Latest UKV.

Further south and hardly gets any further east!!!what a nail biter this is going to be!!

[Sully79]

18 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Tomorrows could be our day guys!!after all the blood sweat and tears all winter the midlands COULD be the sweet spot!!!!oh god please let this event happen!!!

Where are you at I’m in Leicester do you think we are going to finally get some proper snow this time??

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Further south and hardly gets any further east!!!what a nail biter this is going to be!!

A lot of models have it stopping at Stone. People will probably think I’m being greedy but, why can’t it go 10 miles further north?!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Lewis dobson and steve murr building there own weather forum!!!just seen the news now on facebook!!!looks like hes defo done on here now

thanks for letting me know, to stay away!

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Sully79 said:

Where are you at I’m in Leicester do you think we are going to finally get some proper snow this time??

Im in oadby!!!i really dont know yet!!gfs netweather xr and ecm get it over us so according to those models we would get quiet a bit!!been bitten far too many times though!

[Sully79]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Im in oadby!!!i really dont know yet!!gfs netweather xr and ecm get it over us so according to those models we would get quiet a bit!!been bitten far too many times though!

Thanks yeah I know that feeling been so close but we keep missing out hope our luck is about to change

[Eskimo]

I'll do some analysis later on my thoughts for the track now I can see the northern limit on the precip in Ireland. 

Matching that up with the forecast exit point of the trough will give a goid indication where the northern limit will be across England. 

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

I'll do some analysis later on my thoughts for the track now I can see the northern limit on the precip in Ireland. 

Matching that up with the forecast exit point of the trough will give a goid indication where the northern limit will be across England. 

I was looking at exactly the same thing right now on raintoday!!!

[Josh Rubio]

@sheikhy @Sully79 Guys, just put your location in your profile. 
 

The amount of times people have asked where you’re posting from

[sheikhy]

Looks slightly further east than what the gfs forecasted for the same time!!!

[Sully79]

8 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

@sheikhy @Sully79 Guys, just put your location in your profile. 
 

The amount of times people have asked where you’re posting from

Il try not sure how to do it

[sheikhy]

Just now, Sully79 said:

Il try not sure how to do it

Just go on "my account" and there should be a box for you to put your location in!!

[Sully79]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Just go on "my account" and there should be a box for you to put your location in!!

Sorted thanks guys 

[Klippieboo10]

That escalated quickly!!

[markw2680]

Tbh I’ll be very surprised if it goes much further north than say Stafford 

[MKN]

8pm radar, 9pm gfs, 8pm arpege and 8pm nmm. 

[Sweatyman]

3 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Tbh I’ll be very surprised if it goes much further north than say Stafford 

Just looked at some met office graphics on Twitter which they put on 5 minutes ago and didnt even reach Brum the line of snow. Hopeless! 

[Eskimo]

Okay, so...the direction and exit point of the trough hasn't really changed much in the output, the differences in precipitation boundaries are to down to circulation. If we take the direction of the trough and combine the northern limit of the precipitation in Ireland across and down through England, you get something like below - quite similar to recent output to be honest. The northern limit would be somewhere around Stoke. However, the heaviest falls would be across through the West Midlands and down into the Home counties. 

The southern limit would be the black line as the precipitation is above the circulation. There won't be issues with marginality for the vast majority of us so where the front stalls, pivots and slowly sinks south, I can see some significant snow falling. 

This technique worked a few weeks ago when Wales got hit by quite a bit of snow, however...I am in no way saying this will work again!

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Eskimo

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, MKN said:

8pm radar, 9pm gfs, 8pm arpege and 8pm nmm. 

Mucch further east already!

[Snowy L]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Mucch further east already!

Definitely further east but not sure about further North or South, so don't know what impact this has on us other than it arriving a few hours earlier.