Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[WelfordRd]

Streamers are high risk and high reward! I hope we all get some decent snow (all areas of the Midlands) however if it does become a case of people missing out because they form in specific lanes, hopefully those people that do get it have a bit of class and don't rub it in too much. I include myself in that BTW. Nothing worse than missing it by 10 miles and hearing some people waxing lyrical 

[Andypvfc]

33 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I’m sure a piece of the front will break off and spiral over Stoke-On-Trent

You can come back now

[andy_leics22]

Not too optimistic about my chances of snow from this band tonight. It seems to only turn cold enough here by 11pm onwards. The band of PPN will probably have passed us by then Shame the colder air couldn't arrive 3 hours earlier

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

How about that for a perfectly placed convergence zone on Monday?

was about to post this, checked thread to see if it had been posted, looks good roll on tomorrow evening

[Supacell]

Already snowing just to the north east in parts of South Yorkshire according to the Yorkshire regional thread. A long way from turning here, still 4c with positive dew points. I don't think there will be much snow tonight or even tomorrow here, but Sun night onwards looks good with streamers from the North Sea. High risk/high reward, but with some shifting about the likelihood is more will be affected than unaffected at some point. 

A lot of promise for the next several days though. Thursday/Friday could be the icing on the cake if it comes off as per GFS 12z. This before even colder weather shows up in FI (albeit somewhat drier with less snow).

 

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

was about to post this, checked thread to see if it had been posted, looks good roll on tomorrow evening

Check out the Euro4. Starting to think the North Midlands could be one of the sweet spots next week.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS 12Z is too good! not negative but can only be downgrades from that, snow chances mon to wed and thurs/fri, and some kind of cold E'ly from 01 to 384

[pegg24]

3 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

Not too optimistic about my chances of snow from this band tonight. It seems to only turn cold enough here by 11pm onwards. The band of PPN will probably have passed us by then Shame the colder air couldn't arrive 3 hours earlier

Think we are going to struggle to be honest I may be wrong.  We have gone from a great prime position Thursday to the front staying out to the east tomorrow.  We shall see I suppose 

[gig1968]

Well we know this year the Birmingham snow shield has failed, as we have done well so far this winter.. So more is very welcome. My pet polar bear is really looking forward to playing in his usual snowy conditions.  Long may it last.

[Polar Maritime]

Wet snow here now.

[snowangel32]

Met has me down as bone dry after tonights rain and sleet for the next 6 days. Personally can't see the excitement. East mids could do well the rest of us feeding on scraps and the odd shower. Seen it so many times when its from the East it seems to have a wishbone effect for the West. And Thursdays and Friday Snow is being pushed South every run as the cold block fights bk. I bet a tenner it won't reach the UK. So yh from an imby perspective just a cold week install and the odd dusting.

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Check out the Euro4. Starting to think the North Midlands could be one of the sweet spots next week.

From tuesday north midlands is defo sweet spot! As winds swing round more east south east!!tomorrow and monday maybe more east midlands!!!lets see!!

[shunthebartlett92]

Definitely not given up here in the Black Country; still very much all to play for, latest model output looks very tasty indeed at times next week

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

From tuesday north midlands is defo sweet spot! As winds swing round more east south east!!tomorrow and monday maybe more east midlands!!!lets see!!

That low is the pain, needs to be further South, the convective shield over us

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

From tuesday north midlands is defo sweet spot! As winds swing round more east south east!!tomorrow and monday maybe more east midlands!!!lets see!!

Looks like it will be from Monday from what I’m seeing. High resolution charts are going this as are the Met Office judging by that fax chart.

[Supacell]

Just popped out and temperatures have really dropped with an easterly breeze. Some light snow falling too. Wasn't expecting it to turn that quickly.

[Ninman]

Just a thought but I can't remember a time where there has been lying snow in my area in Dec, Jan and Feb. Wonder if we can add March too? Defo a possibility with the way things are appearing in FI! 

4c here but looks like this may be the warmest it may get for at least a couple of weeks? All downhill (temp wise) from here, on a sledge of course! Let the good times roll! 

[Polar Maritime]

Yep just like flicking a switch.

[gig1968]

Doesn't it appear that the snow is appearing earlier than forecasted. South Yorkshire and Derbyshire already....

[Ryukai]

12 minutes ago, gig1968 said:

Doesn't it appear that the snow is appearing earlier than forecasted. South Yorkshire and Derbyshire already....

This isn't the 'Beast from the east #2' This is a different thing.  But because Beast#2 affects the south east, that takes preference over EVERYTHING else weather related on the news/mod thread.  

_______________________________

Watching the main band getting closer now, fingers crossed it makes it over the moors

Snowing quite vigerously up at the Winking Man

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Edited February 6, 2021 by Ryukai

[Gord]

Still not too optimistic here either, at least for the next 2 days anyway.

I think what @I remember Atlantic 252 has been getting at by low pressures being a bit too close might just be right. There is always a shield between the low and the concetive showers that flow nearby. We see it with thunderstorms in the summer and I think we might see it now.

The actual forecasts (and I don't just mean apps)...not model outputs... are still not looking too great.

Remember though, I'm only thinking about the next day or two. Let's see where we stand tomorrow...if the southeasterners and East Anglians haven't broken the forum!

Edited February 6, 2021 by Gord

[DerbyshireDales]

Just starting to lightly rain here. 

[jimben]

Heavy rain in Northants

[shunthebartlett92]

11 minutes ago, Gord said:

Still not too optimistic here either, at least for the next 2 days anyway.

I think what @I remember Atlantic 252 has been getting at by low pressures being a bit too close might just be right. There is always a shield between the low and the concetive showers that flow nearby. We see it with thunderstorms in the summer and I think we might see it now.

The actual forecasts (and I don't just mean apps)...not model outputs... are still not looking too great.

Remember though, I'm only thinking about the next day or two. Let's see where we stand tomorrow...if the southeasterners and East Anglians haven't broken the forum!

Snow showers forecast on and off Monday Gord

[Polar Maritime]

Nice dry moderate snow now