Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[beefy201]

21 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Alex Deakin for the Met O as the completely opposite forecast to BBC

He states as we go into the evening the rain will increasingly turn to snow

 

UK weather forecast map - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office 5 day weather forecast map for UK including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind speed, cloud, and pressure.

 

But there is very little precipitation around it’s all heading NW

[Dancerwithwings]

30 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Fantastic euro4 and makes me think gfs is leading the way on this!!!for my location anyway!!!

Arpege is pretty much the same  now who said “dry tomorrow”

Hmmmm....nothing is ever “nail on” 

 

[Snowy L]

42 minutes ago, sawan said:

Knowing that it will only be shower activity which will largely be hit and miss, I would rather prefer wall to wall sunshine to get on with my allotment 

If you hit the jackpot with a streamer it's more lake effect snow than showers. It's what can cause hours or even days of persistent light-moderate snow.

[BarometerCat]

Real uncertain picture IMBY - Both Arpege and EURO4 have little precipitation for tomorrow after whatever we get overnight. These do not pick up shower/streamer pop ups.  This could be an unpredictable few days and looks quite cold   

Arpege tomorrow AM.

Euro4 same timeframe

then Monday AM!

Radar watch alert for the coming week! 

Edited February 6, 2021 by B-C

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, B-C said:

Real uncertain picture IMBY - Both Arpege and EURO4 have little precipitation for tomorrow after whatever we get overnight. These do not pick up shower/streamer pop ups.  This could be an unpredictable few days and looks quite cold   

Arpege tomorrow AM.

Euro4 same timeframe

then Monday AM!

Radar watch alert for the coming week! 

Looks like Monday onwards will bring the main risks for the Midlands. Sunday probably largely dry due to reduced convection to the north of the low affecting the south east.

[sheikhy]

11 minutes ago, B-C said:

Real uncertain picture IMBY - Both Arpege and EURO4 have little precipitation for tomorrow after whatever we get overnight. These do not pick up shower/streamer pop ups.  This could be an unpredictable few days and looks quite cold   

Arpege tomorrow AM.

Euro4 same timeframe

then Monday AM!

Radar watch alert for the coming week! 

That euro4 and arpege is exactly like gfs just a constant stream of snow into our area!!!!maybe the reason why the gfs keeps going with 10-15cms around the rutland area!!

[kmanmx]

Streamers are cool but hard for me to get excited about. My experience with them is they are always north or south of my location  but fingers crossed that someone does well off them!

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Streamers are cool but hard for me to get excited about. My experience with them is they are always north or south of my location  but fingers crossed that someone does well off them!

Looks like the wind direction will fluctuate, so that should give an increased chance of catching a streamer.

An issue with keeping any snow cover, particularly small amounts might be sublimation. It will be too cold for snow to melt but snow may evaporate away due to the snow and air being very dry (low dew points). It will also be very powdery snow, so may struggle to stick to some surfaces and get blown into drifts.

Edited February 6, 2021 by MattStoke

[I remember Atlantic 252]

21 minutes ago, B-C said:

Real uncertain picture IMBY - Both Arpege and EURO4 have little precipitation for tomorrow after whatever we get overnight. These do not pick up shower/streamer pop ups.  This could be an unpredictable few days and looks quite cold   

Arpege tomorrow AM.

Euro4 same timeframe

then Monday AM!

Radar watch alert for the coming week! 

Monday looking good, hopefully will through to late Wed, then dry Thurs, then the interesting bit? still don't expect the front to reach as far east as here

[sheikhy]

Is there snow still forecasted for the east mids this evening or has it pushed further west?!!ukv looked good earlier?!

[Gustywind]

GEM looking good for region on Monday also, especially north & east.

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Gustywind said:

GEM looking good for region on Monday also, especially north & east.

Think i give that a miss lol!!looks perfect for a certain someone in stoke though

[Essan]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is there snow still forecasted for the east mids this evening or has it pushed further west?!!ukv looked good earlier?!

Looks like precipitation will clear you before turning to snow - though you could possibly see a little - but Monday looking good atm

[beccaboo]

Currently belting it down with rain here! 

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Think i give that a miss lol!!looks perfect for a certain someone in stoke though

Quite a few models have persistent streamers over me.

[WelfordRd]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Quite a few models have persistent streamers over me.

Lol, and you've been moaning all week you won't get much from showers from the East?

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, WelfordRd said:

Lol, and you've been moaning all week you won't get much from showers from the East?

Still thinking the Peak District will suck the life out of them, but we shall see!

Not intending to moan but trying to be realistic whilst also highlighting the potential for a decent event for our region in-spite of things perhaps looking uninspiring on the face of it.

[markw2680]

Come on people nobody knows where the showers will fall, just wait and see, I’d think there will be quite a few surprises through the next few days. We all love snow but the end of the day it is only the weather

[LeeKay/]

Some thick fog here this morning, its now cleared to leave sunny intervals. Some quite impressive low clouds too from NE. No wind outside temp reading 6.0°c

Edited February 6, 2021 by LeeKay/
cloud direction

[Eskimo]

I think it would just be nice to get a covering of snow that will last all week.

[sheikhy]

Euro4 gives me 10cms of snow please dont change...

[BarometerCat]

8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Euro4 gives me 10cms of snow please dont change...

what timescale is that??  Just read the UK METO update - looking good going forward.  Would be a surprise not to see snow.  Brilliant output on the models still. Nothing to complain about!

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, B-C said:

what timescale is that??  Just read the UK METO update - looking good going forward.  Would be a surprise not to see snow.  Brilliant output on the models still. Nothing to complain about!

By monday morning 6am!!!!so not too far away!!!

[Midlands Ice Age]

Just got back in from the midday walk. (20 mins late)

Started off very misty, and a temp of  2.5C with no wind.

By the end 14:00 breeze picked up from the NE, pushing the mist into low cloud with  an occasional break.

Start of the Easterly winds here! Hopefully for 2 weeks plus!!.

Still dry here but looks as if there is a bit of development to the SE, which is pushing up further north, before being engaged by the easterly, which will push it back west again towards the West Mids. Hopefully the temps will be falling by the time it reaches us this evening.

Streamers look to me to bring some really good snowfall for most around here this week.

MIA     

[Arctic Hare]

Currently 4.4 °C and with thick cloud it looks unlikely to go much higher. Went out for a walk an hour ago and it definitely felt chillier than yesterday. Personally I suspect anything tonight in this area will be rain/sleet, though those at 200m plus in the W Mids might get something more interesting. As so often, we won't know until it happens! (Or doesn't happen...)