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Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


#windysnow#

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Posted
  • Location: UK, just south of Derby
  • Location: UK, just south of Derby

BBC weather app

Today: Light rain showers and light winds

Sunday Gusty winds, and light snow temp 2/1

Monday light cloud and moderate breeze

Tuesday light cloud and moderate breeze

Wednesday light cloud and moderate breeze

Thursday light cloud and moderate breeze

 

Same thing until Sunday 14th, where light cloud is replaced with sunny intervals

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Raw data from the mild ramping GFS for Stoke-on-Trent.

Will barely notice this cold spell. Don’t know what the fuss is about

CB44FF81-1FD7-40E8-BC6E-C74459F26CC1.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
52 minutes ago, Gord said:

Anyone else under this dense fog this morning or is it just up here? Surprised there’s no warnings out for that. 
 

Not dense, but been foggy down here all morning too

btw I thought it ironic that as soon as a snow and ice warning was issued, the MetO not-a-forecast removed our snow symbols for tonight!

Worth noting though, with regards Sunday onwards: models always struggle with snow showers.  All apps are computer generated from raw model output.  Ergo: apps are as useful this week as a chocolate teapot on a motorbike.

Edited by Essan
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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
1 hour ago, Eskimo said:

Metoffice yellow warning issued for the West and North Midlands and Wales down through the SW.

image.thumb.png.4ad8d05388010ee4a690d4b055e82cee.png
 

It'll be on BBCWeather tommorow..

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
4 minutes ago, Essan said:

Not dense, but been foggy down here all morning too

btw I thought it ironic that as soon as a snow and ice warning was issued, the MetO not-a-forecast removed our snow symbols for tonight!

Worth noting though, with regards Sunday onwards: models always struggle with snow showers.  All apps are computer generated from raw model output.  Ergo: models are as useful this week as a chocolate teapot on a motorbike.

But in the warning details, it's only 1-4cm for over 200m. I think it's the ice that's the main headline from that warning.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
Just now, Gord said:

But in the warning details, it's only 1-4cm for over 200m. I think it's the ice that's the main headline from that warning.

Aye, though a chance of a light covering to lower levels too, depending on timing/intensity of precipitation as the cold air digs in

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
20 minutes ago, Rich_T said:

BBC weather app

Today: Light rain showers and light winds

Sunday Gusty winds, and light snow temp 2/1

Monday light cloud and moderate breeze

Tuesday light cloud and moderate breeze

Wednesday light cloud and moderate breeze

Thursday light cloud and moderate breeze

 

Same thing until Sunday 14th, where light cloud is replaced with sunny intervals

 

I remember watching a forecast on the bbc a couple of years ago, that said dry and sunny, whilst looking out the window to snow piling up. They really are bad nowadays

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

On the topic of weather...

IF we have a major cold spell on our hands   (made even worse if there  is disruptive snow somewhere in the UK) , I think that I (we?) should be watching the supplies of power and heating. 

It is very likely (IMO)  that we will be seeing electricity cuts at some point.

This may start to happen tomorrow if we have disruptive snow in the SE.

The grid (without the help of solar (little sun) and wind power through the probable ice up in the North Sea, I can see that we will have to depend upon our supplies of Gas and Nuclear to keep the electricity flowing.

We can also (I  believe) after Brexit still  import power from France and Holland. Though the worry is that most of Northern Europe will be very cold and also be requiring more power, so that they have nothing to spare,

This will be the ultimate test of UK's energy strategy.

If we end up with the even colder weather for week 2, now being envisaged, we could see some real power cuts at some point next week. 

If you are interested  in seeing what happens to the usage over the next week then the following is a link to our usage minute by minute with extensive analysis tools for looking back at the trends.

Grid Power analysis

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
53 minutes ago, Rich_T said:

The BBC weather app is having non of this snow nonsense - cool temperatures just above freezing ( so not even any ice days) with "light cloud and light winds" throughout the entire week

utterly useless app

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, Sweatyman said:

utterly useless app

Tomorrow it will be right, cold and grey, but aye never picks up convective showers

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
22 minutes ago, NixShep said:

im not being picky  - haha - but we have snow showing now for our area yeah..... but I do love it when the snow happens during daylight!!  Love watching it real time.  Its so hard at night time - constantly putting the hand out of the window to activate the garden light.  But ill take any snow  !  Ill watch it with wine instead and go for a midnight tipsy walk 

Oh and I do love an amber warning 

 

Not sure what garden light you have or more importantly how old it is, but the new security lights have an inner function, if you flip the switch quickly it’ll stay on ( turn it on then off and back on within two seconds )

Then when you turn it off it’ll revert back to passive mode when you don’t want the light on all the time. 

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Posted
  • Location: UK, just south of Derby
  • Location: UK, just south of Derby
12 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

utterly useless app

The reason why I'm highlighting weather apps is down to the fact that i have a love/hate relationship with snow and what the app says fits my pessimistic side of things, plus I've seen many last minute weather model backtracks ( ive been accused of crying wolf  on more than one occasion as a result of model changes)

And that most people will look to their phones an apps for the forecast  and event/work planning

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl

Ok, I’m confused.

I read on here yesterday that the models aren’t very good at picking up convective showers.

Last month, we had a discussion that the ‘useless’ weather apps do use the models to pick out a general theme. So it makes sense that they won’t show convective showers because the models don’t handle them well.

But now model charts are being shared showing convective showers?

Do the models have to get within a certain time frame before they start to show convection? 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
2 minutes ago, Gord said:

Ok, I’m confused.

I read on here yesterday that the models aren’t very good at picking up convective showers.

Last month, we had a discussion that the ‘useless’ weather apps do use the models to pick out a general theme. So it makes sense that they won’t show convective showers because the models don’t handle them well.

But now model charts are being shared showing convective showers?

Do the models have to get within a certain time frame before they start to show convection? 

High resolution models will pick up some of the risk but will still fail to model it properly. The fact they show anything at all is encouraging and shows the risk is there.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

High resolution models will pick up some of the risk but will still fail to model it properly. The risk they show anything at all is encouraging and shows the risk is there.

Oh I see, so it’s about the resolution, so as long as the general theme is there on the high resolution ones, it’s then simply down to radar watching from that point?

Quite similar to modelling home grown thunderstorm development in the summer I should imagine.

Thank you, that makes a bit more sense now.

And the MO app is showing a 50% chance of light snow at random points during the week. So the theme is there too. So not totally useless!

Edited by Gord
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Not going to go on about apps, but just to add fuel to the fire 

Forget the projected forecast, my bbc app is now-casting me  (light cloud and 5c) truth-cast is, drum roll...... (foggy and just 2c) 

So my point is, how the hell do they expect to get the forecast right when they can’t even get the live weather right

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow or Heat
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl

Knowing that it will only be shower activity which will largely be hit and miss, I would rather prefer wall to wall sunshine to get on with my allotment 

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham Airport
  • Weather Preferences: Chasing Snow
  • Location: Birmingham Airport
40 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Anyone going to tell the poor sods who live in Winslow? lol 

lol.png

Probably end up being the sweet spot now for this cold spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
14 minutes ago, Rich_T said:

The reason why I'm highlighting weather apps is down to the fact that i have a love/hate relationship with snow and what the app says fits my pessimistic side of things, plus I've seen many last minute weather model backtracks ( ive been accused of crying wolf  on more than one occasion as a result of model changes)

And that most people will look to their phones an apps for the forecast  and event/work planning

Well contradicting myself i look at them anyway !! Just cant help myself

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Alex Deakin for the Met O as the completely opposite forecast to BBC

He states as we go into the evening the rain will increasingly turn to snow

7BCBEDA7-D7D5-4C3C-9551-3C2D61D9D2B9.thumb.jpeg.74bf9c7629db6fbf9985edef1ce1676f.jpeg 

MO_Master_W.jpg
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Met Office 5 day weather forecast map for UK including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind speed, cloud, and pressure.

 

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