Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[Dancerwithwings]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Wonder if we’ll see a warning later. Doesn’t look hugely significant but maybe a few cm for some.

Maybe Matt, some parts will probably see a slushy mix but even for them areas as temps drop further come dawn, it’ll be widespread ICE, that’ll need a warning for sure

[sheikhy]

Once again gfs forecasting constant stream of snow for my part of the midlands from tonight till tuesday morning!!

[Dancerwithwings]

5 minutes ago, gig1968 said:

Better off without the warnings. Everytime they issue them we get nothing. When they dont we fill our boots.....

I’m with ya

[Sweatyman]

38 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Dry?  

Get caught under a streamer somewhere and you'll be laughing !!

[Sweatyman]

24 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Overall like Matt mentioned early, the models have been showing “constantly” good intensity, giving decent snowfall for the Midlands later this evening and the BBC weather not mentioning this

They are only bothered about that south east snow of course

[Sweatyman]

14 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Once again gfs forecasting constant stream of snow for my part of the midlands from tonight till tuesday morning!!

Fingers crossed for you Sheiky

[DIS1970]

Expecting flurries, mainly light but possibly quite persistent.

[Gustywind]

11 hours ago, andy_leics22 said:

Unfortunately, Worcestershire is not in a good location for an Easterly The best scenario is if a channel low can come along and throw up a band of PPN with it. Snow showers won't usually amount to that much, that far West. That isn't to say that you can't get lucky from a streamer, though.

 

The Midlands is a wide area. It can stretch from Nottinghamshire all the way down to Worcestershire. Some parts of the Midlands will do well from this. Those as far East in the Midlands as possible will have the best chance.

Agreed, although I’m very much on the Worcs/Bham/Warks border so Bham is probably a closer fit for my area than Worcs, not that this makes much difference to the amount of snow I’m likely to see.

Tonight looks like we may see a cm or two if we’re lucky, bit more further east & North perhaps. Just need the rain to switch over ideally a bit quicker than currently indicated if we’re to avoid a thin, slushy covering that quickly melts. Then it’s pot luck to an extent on whether a streamer sets up & whether it hits your area or leaves you in an infuriating gap!

[Dancerwithwings]

17 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

They are only bothered about that south east snow of course

Yes regarding the SouthEast/London, that preference always shows but what’s on offer at the BBC weather just at the moment must be the 18z output and as everybody keeps on stating that the Met/BBC use the ECM, well let’s see if they pick up on this then ( 06z ECM )

Edited February 6, 2021 by Dancerwithwings

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Expecting flurries, mainly light but possibly quite persistent.

Same really. Some models do indicate streamers setting up perfectly for me but I suspect the Peak District may suck the life out of them.

[Ms Rock & Blues]

I was really excited about this up coming event as it seemed '  a dead cert  '  but now it appears not so certain after all, well for us anyway. I'm still hoping.....  ..❄

[kev238]

I agree that the output looks slightly underwhelming for snow in this region although it really will be a case of watching the radar 

models always underestimate convection with a cold flow from the North Sea so there may be some surprises though overnight tonight might be best opportunity for more western and southern parts of the midlands

 

[BarometerCat]

44 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Overall like Matt mentioned early, the models have been showing “constantly” good intensity, giving decent snowfall for the Midlands later this evening and the BBC weather not mentioning this

Significant decent cold outputs, consistently showing cold for next few days! Would not be surprised if we see more warnings yet! 6z soon....

[Gustywind]

Interesting over on Twitter, Matt Hugo saying models definitely underestimating level of showers/streamer activity forecasted to come off the N Sea over next few days. 

[Dancerwithwings]

8 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Interesting over on Twitter, Matt Hugo saying models definitely underestimating level of showers/streamer activity forecasted to come off the N Sea over next few days. 

The UKV 06z is picking up on he’s thoughts, well its a start

Edit 

Some windchill that

Edited February 6, 2021 by Dancerwithwings

[MattStoke]

13 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Interesting over on Twitter, Matt Hugo saying models definitely underestimating level of showers/streamer activity forecasted to come off the N Sea over next few days. 

Definitely. The parameters are a recipe for snow shower development and the models always handle it really badly,

I’m looking forward to Monday in particular when the radar will be full of snow showers crossing the country and people will be acting surprised

Edited February 6, 2021 by MattStoke

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Definitely. The parameters are a recipe for for shower development and the models always handle it really badly,

I’m looking forward to Monday in particular when the radar will be full of snow showers crossing the country and people will be acting surprised

Especially the BBC weather presenters

[sheikhy]

And again constant snow from gfs for leicester!!!am waiting for that downgrade and its not happening lol!

[matty40s]

It's already showing snow over the pennines 7 hours before the weather forecast  charts said it would. I have to go over the M62 this afternoon.....

Theres a lot more precipitation around this morning than predicted......evaporative cooling???

[I remember Atlantic 252]

06Z a little further South, so streamer is too for Tuesday, another day when we look like being dry 'cos of a frontal shield,

[sheikhy]

Best chance for me is between early tomorrow morning and tuesday morning!!after that the streamer shifts north ans nottingham gets battered!!according to gfs!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Best chance for me is between early tomorrow morning and tuesday morning!!after that the streamer shifts north ans nottingham gets battered!!according to gfs!!

best chance for me, window from around Sunday 10pm to monday evening,

[phil b]

Winds have turned to the east now, bring on the fun and games

[Cleeve Hill]

Just had a met office snow and ice warning appear on my met office app for tonight. Seems to cover a lot of the midlands 

[MattStoke]

A lot of models do show a drier slot from around the Wash directly south eastward. That drier band to the north of the low. South East Midlands may struggle to see much. Ironically, the North West Midlands may be better placed in this easterly than the South East Midlands.