Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[Vmistry]

Just heard one of family members say “Apparently it’s gonna snow loads over the whole uk on Sunday”

[MattStoke]

Snow event cancelled for the South East and moved to Stoke-on-Trent?

[Shezale coventry]

You know the snow chances are slim when the midlands thread is the least busy out of all the threads

[sheikhy]

Fantastic ecm 12z up to 168 hours!!this is how i expected the 144 hour chart to look on ukmo but i dunno what happened lol!!!also winds are east north east from 48 hours to 144 hours so more areas getting in the act for snow showers!!!ukmo a bit to south east right now!

[Dancerwithwings]

Bit late in joining the party, work work

tomorrow evening could look interesting via the UKV 

[Gustywind]

Yes looking pretty bone dry but freezing for most of us sadly, really annoying seeing no precipitation on the charts for the Mids, while north, south, east & west of us get plenty! Hopefully something will crop up during the week, as the breakdown looks a lame duck also in terms of snow!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Fantastic ecm 12z up to 168 hours!!this is how i expected the 144 hour chart to look on ukmo but i dunno what happened lol!!!also winds are east north east from 48 hours to 144 hours so more areas getting in the act for snow showers!!!ukmo a bit to south east right now!

Not actually sure I'm keen on EC, no frontal snow Thu/Fri, need somewhere inbetween EC and GFS

[syed2878]

3 hours ago, PolarWarsaw said:

I have to say, it really gripes me when 'the usual suspects' - IE those north of the M4 get snow events aplenty and what feels like the entire of the Mod thread is whining and moaning about how it would be nice for 'the entire of the country to be involved'. 

Considering the tables are now fully turned, I'm finding it quite satisfying to re-dress the balance of the over hyping nonsense going on. 

Most of the country is having a couple of cold dry days before mild and rain wins out. 

  Totally totally agree with this this cold snap was too overhyped especially here on net weather those up north who have had quite substantial snowfall and those who are in the South Southeast have overhyped it too much those posters who have disagreed and said it may not turn out the way people were saying those views were shot down in flames. 

[Andypvfc]

I had a glance on a radar at tomoz. The Snow is showing just at the top of my street but misses the house

[MattStoke]

People really need to stop writing this off just because the models show little or nothing.

I’m doubtful for my area because I know from experience that most precipitation from the east/north east gets killed off by the Peak District, but I also know from experience that models massively underestimate showers in these setups. It was exactly the same in 2013 and 2018 and people were surprised when snow showers spread right across the country. 
 

Models aren’t everything. Experience is invaluable!

[kev238]

The output does look underwhelming at the moment for this region but there are enough hints from the models to suggest there will be some snow showers in the region

it will be a case of watching the radar 

[syed2878]

20 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Fantastic ecm 12z up to 168 hours!!this is how i expected the 144 hour chart to look on ukmo but i dunno what happened lol!!!also winds are east north east from 48 hours to 144 hours so more areas getting in the act for snow showers!!!ukmo a bit to south east right now!

 Just a bit confused here One post saying what a poor easy M and yet you’re saying it’s fantastic so which is it good bad poor or somewhere in the middle

[fiftytwodegreesnorth]

26 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Snow event cancelled for the South East and moved to Stoke-on-Trent?

I think the announcement is that the Dutch media have announced a name for the winter storm, Storm Darcy, which will will hit the Netherlands and northern Germany over the weekend hardest, and possibly a small corner of SE England too

[Andypvfc]

3 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 Just a bit confused here One post saying what a poor easy M and yet you’re saying it’s fantastic so which is it good bad poor or somewhere in the middle

That's the point I was making. 1 min it's a great outlook, within a minute, it's a shocking outlook.

I can't bloody keep up.

[andy_leics22]

7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

People really need to stop writing this off just because the models show little or nothing.

I’m doubtful for my area because I know from experience that most precipitation from the east/north east gets killed off by the Peak District, but I also know from experience that models massively underestimate showers in these setups. It was exactly the same in 2013 and 2018 and people were surprised when snow showers spread right across the country. 
 

Models aren’t everything. Experience is invaluable!

I can guarantee that there will be more PPN and showers around from Monday-Wednesday than the models currently suggest. The radar will reflect that, no question.

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 Just a bit confused here One post saying what a poor easy M and yet you’re saying it’s fantastic so which is it good bad poor or somewhere in the middle

In my opinion up to 168 hours its brilliant!!clear to see its an upgrade on the 00z!!atlantic disrupting nicely!!can it keep it up though!!?

[shunthebartlett92]

11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

People really need to stop writing this off just because the models show little or nothing.

I’m doubtful for my area because I know from experience that most precipitation from the east/north east gets killed off by the Peak District, but I also know from experience that models massively underestimate showers in these setups. It was exactly the same in 2013 and 2018 and people were surprised when snow showers spread right across the country. 
 

Models aren’t everything. Experience is invaluable!

This in abundance, also small adjustments tomorrow and it’s game on again!

[Vmistry]

21 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Bit late in joining the party, work work

tomorrow evening could look interesting via the UKV 

I thought the UKV was showing nothing earlier

[sheikhy]

21 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Bit late in joining the party, work work

tomorrow evening could look interesting via the UKV 

And also all of a sudden it has a stream of snow showers coming in from the wash on sunday which was not there in the earlier runs!!!!

[MattStoke]

Case in point. Models showed little in 2013 and the radar ended up looking like this from a pretty similar setup.

[markw2680]

54 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

The frontal shield though is accurate, convection killer, saw it's there all day Sun and Mon, right over most of Midlands, UKV model think it was

As far as I can see if that front in the se moves away a bit quicker then we should be ok, it’s all down to that front imo

[Gustywind]

10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

People really need to stop writing this off just because the models show little or nothing.

I’m doubtful for my area because I know from experience that most precipitation from the east/north east gets killed off by the Peak District, but I also know from experience that models massively underestimate showers in these setups. It was exactly the same in 2013 and 2018 and people were surprised when snow showers spread right across the country. 
 

Models aren’t everything. Experience is invaluable!

You can only go by what the models are suggesting though, anything else has no evidence to back it up, of course the models could change & throw up a surprise or two, and personally I think that’s quite possible, but equally you can’t ignore the fact that aside from Sat night, there’s little showing currently.

As for experience, I’ve lived through plenty of easterlies & plenty have been cold but dry, I remember the Feb 86 one in particular & how irritating it was day after day, hearing about snow showers in the East, while in the Midlands we stayed frosty but very dry!

[fiftytwodegreesnorth]

2 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

I can guarantee that there will be more PPN and showers around from Monday-Wednesday than the models currently suggest. The radar will reflect that, no question.

Agreed, we need wait for the high res models to start picking up the distribution of shower activity or streamers or not as the case could be for Monday onwards. 

But currently this is looking more very cold and dry rather than very cold and snowy.

The good news is any snow that does fall won’t have trouble settling. 

[Ninman]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

And also all of a sudden it has a stream of snow showers coming in from the wash on sunday which was not there in the earlier runs!!!!

This just proves the point that in this kind of setup, showers will pop up at short notice in various places. 

This happens with rain showers (how many times have people been caught out with a hefty shower when none were forecast?). Snow is more difficult to predict than rain, especially with convective showers. We have 5-6 days of easterlies so plenty of chances for streamers to get in land. 

[GokouD]

Met office app is giving me 80% chance of 3 hours heavy snow after the rain goes through Saturday night, make of that what you will! 

If nothing else it's going to be cold, I checked the Feels Like forcast and after Saturday night it doesn't go above -5 until Thursday!