Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[MattStoke]

I will die of laughter if this is correct from the Aperge for Sunday.

Edited February 5, 2021 by MattStoke

[Ryukai]

4 hours ago, weirpig said:

Euro 4  from its last run  delayed the low  and a big push north  on its 6z run   Stoke  prime location in the region on that run

Not sure if you know the exact location of Stoke but we certainly are not in a prime location on that  we are in the light blue(0.2-0.5)/gap region between N.Wales and the Pennines (but closer to the Pennines side).

Edited February 5, 2021 by Ryukai

[MKN]

Thr 12z gfs is an upgrade for the midlands imo. There is not masses of snow being shown currently but the angle of the easterly winds is better suited for our region.

[MattStoke]

Just now, MKN said:

Thr 12z gfs is an upgrade for the midlands imo. There is not masses of snow being shown currently but the angle of the easterly winds is better suited for our region.

A low resolution model picking up on widespread showers/flurries is promising.

[Midlander]

12 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I will die of laughter if this is correct from the Aperge for Sunday.

 Best to only stay in the Midlands thread on Sunday if that came off! Some people will be having a breakdown! 

Edited February 5, 2021 by AppleUK 123

[Jason74]

I will laugh my socks off if the SE miss out. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by Jason74

[WillinGlossop]

https://www.mwis.org.uk/assets/forecasts/pd-mwi-wm12557_2021-02-05_160549_2635.pdf
 

good Peak District update 

[Midlander]

AROME 12Z won't post this on the Model Thread () but can quite clearly see the precipitation is further south and east.

However, for us in the Midlands this does allow the showers to start rolling in earlier, due to us being far enough away from the cloud band I assume. 

We just need to be patience and wait our turn. We don't always need to get the most snow nor do we need to be the first to see it.

 

, 

Edited February 5, 2021 by AppleUK 123

[andy_leics22]

Our best chance of snow here in Northampton is from that band over East Anglia on Saturday night and into Sunday. After that, the wind changes direction and it looks like we would miss out on any streamers or showers for the rest of the cold spell. Oh well, I have to cycle to work, so no snow may not be the end of the world

[weirpig]

what with the downgrades on the easterly  for most areas on the 12z    the low saturday evening might be the best event.

NNM  12z is a peach   

[PolarWarsaw]

21 minutes ago, Jason74 said:

I will laugh my socks off if the SE miss out. 

I have to say, it really gripes me when 'the usual suspects' - IE those north of the M4 get snow events aplenty and what feels like the entire of the Mod thread is whining and moaning about how it would be nice for 'the entire of the country to be involved'. 

Considering the tables are now fully turned, I'm finding it quite satisfying to re-dress the balance of the over hyping nonsense going on. 

Most of the country is having a couple of cold dry days before mild and rain wins out. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by PolarWarsaw

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

what with the downgrades on the easterly  for most areas on the 12z    the low saturday evening might be the best event.

NNM  12z is a peach   

Why is everything always about half a mile to my east on every chart? Even when I see a good dumping of snow, all the charts show that gap just to the west of the Peak District. I think they overdo that.

[Storme]

I am East Midlands, North Leicestershire. We had an amazing event the other week. Seems like we might be in the middle between any snow. 

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

what with the downgrades on the easterly  for most areas on the 12z    the low saturday evening might be the best event.

NNM  12z is a peach   

For the west mids perfect!!east mids zilch!!!!happy for u if it happens though mate!!

[MattStoke]

GEM continues to be the only model really picking up the streamers. Gives an absolute dumping across the North Midlands, including Stoke

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

For the west mids perfect!!east mids zilch!!!!happy for u if it happens though mate!!

Im  certain it wont end up like that mate    But Stoke certainy wont get any

[Polar Maritime]

21 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

https://www.mwis.org.uk/assets/forecasts/pd-mwi-wm12557_2021-02-05_160549_2635.pdf
 

good Peak District update 

Substantial snow depths.. Fingers crossed.

[PolarWarsaw]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

For the west mids perfect!!east mids zilch!!!!happy for u if it happens though mate!!

It won't happen like that mate.

Try not too worry. Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and Leicestershire are still the most favourable areas of the midlands to see accumulating snow. 

It is a shame to see less snow and a shorter event forecast right at the last moments we have seen huge downgrades. So disappointing after nearly two weeks of build and analysis. 

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Im  certain it wont end up like that mate    But Stoke certainy wont get any

Careful now. My ignore user list is pretty full already

[sheikhy]

Leicester is in a bad place as it stands!!!we need a more east north east shape to the wind!!a bit like the ecm this morning!!

[andy_leics22]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Leicester is in a bad place as it stands!!!we need a more east north east shape to the wind!!a bit like the ecm this morning!!

If I had a choice of being in Northampton or Leicester for this cold spell, I would choose Leicester. Leics, Notts and Derbyshire are in good locations for showers and streamers. The models always under estimate PPN from showers and streamers. Seen it happen so many times in the past, from Easterlies.

[sheikhy]

After looking at the precipitation charts it shows leicester having snow pretty much non stop from 30 hours all way to 102 hours!!that is madness!!!gfs is our only hope!!!lol

[WelfordRd]

25 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

AROME 12Z won't post this on the Model Thread () but can quite clearly see the precipitation is further south and east.

However, for us in the Midlands this does allow the showers to start rolling in earlier, due to us being far enough away from the cloud band I assume. 

We just need to be patience and wait our turn. We don't always need to get the most snow nor do we need to be the first to see it.

 

, 

Bet this chart would go down like a Fart in an Elevator in the SE Thread. Sorry I meant to say Mod Thread 

[GokouD]

27 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Why is everything always about half a mile to my east on every chart? Even when I see a good dumping of snow, all the charts show that gap just to the west of the Peak District. I think they overdo that.

Could be worse, I'm always in the little white hole just south of the gap!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

25 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GEM continues to be the only model really picking up the streamers. Gives an absolute dumping across the North Midlands, including Stoke

GEM certainly best model, looks like keeps the cold into Saturday too, GFS though is the worst, snow on Thurs looking unlikely now