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Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Just now, Polar Low said:

 

I disagree with your view on the models. Irrespective, noting your last comment - bring it on! Could amount to some staggering snowfall totals. There is now way the Atlantic blows through this kind of setup , a stall would be inevitable - the question is; where.

Fantastic weekend coming up regardless, reinforced until Wednesday at the earliest. Anything beyond that is FI.

Have you  seen BBC 10.30 pm all yellow by Wednesday 

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Posted
  • Location: Newark, Nottinghamshire +19M
  • Location: Newark, Nottinghamshire +19M
4 minutes ago, SnowLover87 said:

Have you  seen BBC 10.30 pm all yellow by Wednesday 

Again, I refer back to my previous post.  Midnight Thursday any effort to identify what is going to happen at +144 is purely about following trends and factoring in model bias. +144 is completely FI. Come Wednesday, it could be worse, or better (depending on which side of the coin you look at) but ultimately the only thing that's certain is that corrections will happen right up to t48/t72.

Edited by Polar Low
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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
31 minutes ago, SnowLover87 said:

America goes in freezer next week.  Europe will be flooded.  

Or if cold air is in situ could lead to some big snowfalls and battleground scenarios. Wouldnt worry to much the models can't even agree on Sundays low lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
4 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

Pity I'm about to go bed, toys about to go everywhere

Screenshot_20210205-053324_Chrome.jpg

?? When will people learn? 
 

Oh no. One of the poorest verifying models which has modelled this cold spell appallingly and is known to be poor in these situations and to bring in mild conditions too quickly is doing just that so...... panic!

No support for that from any other models, the pros, or the larger factors influencing our weather.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

?? When will people learn? 

It's simple mate, you either want fantastic summers with a beach nearby, knowing full well, you will not get much Snow, or you live up North, with Bathpool or WestPort lake on sea and colder winters.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Does my head in how people overreact to and get hung up on one model run. Not least when it’s a model known to be poor in these setups and with lower verification stats than the other main models. People seem to take the GFS more seriously than other models. I never understand why.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
42 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Does my head in how people overreact to and get hung up on one model run. Not least when it’s a model known to be poor in these setups and with lower verification stats than the other main models. People seem to take the GFS more seriously than other models. I never understand why.

Possibly because back a long while ago when the GFS was known as the AVN or MRF there were a lot less models available so those that read models, it's all they knew back then and people tend to mainly stick with what they know. That's my explanation anyway

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, Malarky said:

Morning all. I've ducked in here to take shelter from the model thread for a bit. Some of them really embarrassing themselves this morning!

Doing my head in. Some absolute garbage posted in there. Apparently the Met Office will have to backtrack on their outlook for over a week away because a couple of model runs show something different, because that’s really how the pros do their business ??

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Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

Makes you feel a bit embarrassed yourself when you have people like Carinthian taking their time to analyse our weather from a different country, and then the knee jerk brigade sweep in.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
27 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

UKV has 500mm (50+cm) of snow for some spots in East Anglia and the South East. May be overdone (Although I find this model is one of few that normally under does accumulation). Quite feasible though that some spots could see a foot or more, but more widely probably 15-20cm across some eastern areas. Certainly, I would expect a good few cm for more eastern and central areas (and a few spots in the west) than this model shows.

9600181F-2E04-45E6-8906-3982E9E97B1A.jpeg

That is seriously poor for the midlands!!its not me being negative but that is truly bad mate!!!!must be a cap or shield of some sort!!

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Coventry

Im not thinking about the breakdown yet. Solid 4-5 days of cold with chances for convective and frontal accumulation. Im happy to ride the beast and see what we get. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

That is seriously poor for the midlands!!its not me being negative but that is truly bad mate!!!!must be a cap or shield of some sort!!

I find the UKV massively underestimates accumulation. According to that model, I should have seen no snow cover this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley west midlands
  • Location: Shirley west midlands

To be fair we havent done to badly so far from this winter have we. Just wish that front would realise it would get a far better welcome from us Midlands than the south easterners. Deep cold ice days hard frosts but limited snow I think for us Midlands during the spell. Saying that I'm hoping for more...

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Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, warmth, and thunder.
  • Location: Warwickshire

Seems that the East Midlands is rather likely get some much deserved snow on Sunday, but in contrast it doesn't look quite so good for the rest of the Midlands. I'm hoping that the precipitation will remain further westwards on Sunday than is currently being modelled so that it will affect a much wider area. I would say that there is a 75% chance of decent snow cover in the East, and up to 33% in the West.

multipanel_snowdepth_20210205_00_072.thumb.jpg.e7bb59437cec85c46dbb7f45d9db010d.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Important not to pay too much attention to snow accumulation charts when it comes to showers. Mostly generally handle this very poorly. Few had much snow at all across the U.K. in 2018 and 2013 and were completely wrong!

One of the better models is probably the Arome due to its high resolution. This event is only just coming into the time frame of this model. It has rain turning to snow for parts of the Midlands Saturday night.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

certainly looks grey and raw on Sunday, little chance for a change now, hopefully snow showers from Mon to Wed, then frontal snow Thurs

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Posted
  • Location: Nantwich, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Extreme Weather
  • Location: Nantwich, Cheshire

As ever it will be a nowcast as to how far west that front reaches really so I'm not interested in what the charts show but what is actually happening out the window. If we can get another 10CM that'd be nice enough.

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Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, warmth, and thunder.
  • Location: Warwickshire
12 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Important not to pay too much attention to snow accumulation charts when it comes to showers. Mostly generally handle this very poorly. Few had much snow at all across the U.K. in 2018 and 2013 and were completely wrong!

One of the better models is probably the Arome due to its high resolution. This event is only just coming into the time frame of this model. It has rain turning to snow for parts of the Midlands Saturday night.

The AROME isn't showing snow in the current time frame, but I agree that it will be showers that most areas will depend on. But as ever, they are very hit and miss - one area may be dumped with snow, and just down the road they are wondering what all the fuss is about. I am hopeful that the majority of the West Midlands will eventually get snow, but I'm just not very confident about this weekend.

preciprate_20210205_00_042.jpg

Edited by xSnow
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
5 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:

Glad I don't pay any attention to the met office app weather. Just gee cloud from Sunday and no snow what's so ever! Gotta keep the faith 

That's being modeled on nearly all models, we're right under the frontal shield, so a cold, dry and grey Sunday

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

That's being modeled on nearly all models, we're right under the frontal shield, so a cold, dry and grey Sunday

Agreed. I think it’s Monday onwards when the risk of snow showers will increase but the models will be useless at showing that. This happens every time we have such setup. People end up surprised as snow showers pile in from the North Sea because models and apps show nothing.

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