Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

 

that Sunday? looks good and low much further South

[shunthebartlett92]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

 

Thaaaaaats the one! i remember that well, snowed pretty much on and off all day, and i was wrong as even a good swathe of wales got snow too. Just depends on the convective potential really, i think by tomorrow evening we'll have a very decent grasp on the frontal bands positioning, but i think it could be game on for anywhere in the mids as the showers start to roll in, not expecting nearly as much as further east from these showers but id say a covering is distinctly possible.  

[shunthebartlett92]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

that Sunday? looks good and low much further South

trip down memory lane to 2013.

[snowangel32]

9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Met Office warning appears to suggest the fronts from that low will affect us.

Met against BBC who will win lol.

[MattStoke]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

that Sunday? looks good and low much further South

It was the 2013 event.

Met Office warning states:

‘In addition to the showers, there is a chance that an extended period of more persistent snowfall could impact parts of the Midlands and southeast England overnight Saturday and through Sunday. This is all likely to bring areas of accumulating snow through the period with some icy stretches developing, with some parts seeing 5-10 cm, possibly 15 cm of snow. Although disruption from this event could occur anywhere within this region, the Midlands and south-east England is the area most likely to see disruptive snow accumulating more widely, from later Saturday until the middle of Sunday’.

Suggests that the low will affect us.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It was the 2013 event.

Met Office warning states:

‘In addition to the showers, there is a chance that an extended period of more persistent snowfall could impact parts of the Midlands and southeast England overnight Saturday and through Sunday. This is all likely to bring areas of accumulating snow through the period with some icy stretches developing, with some parts seeing 5-10 cm, possibly 15 cm of snow. Although disruption from this event could occur anywhere within this region, the Midlands and south-east England is the area most likely to see disruptive snow accumulating more widely, from later Saturday until the middle of Sunday’.

Suggests that the low will affect us.

got to favour B'ham S/E wards though, perhaps want the low to move north then

[Shezale coventry]

Do we not have any lows trying to come in from the atlantic next week? With the cold air in place thats our best bet for some significant snow!

[Aidloz]

2 hours ago, tyson99 said:

Maybe I’m reading these incorrectly but North Nottinghamshire / Derbyshire  ( 65 miles inland from the wash ) seems to be on the verge of missing any accumulation of snow ?

 

I hope not  

[MattStoke]

12 minutes ago, Shezale coventry said:

Do we not have any lows trying to come in from the atlantic next week? With the cold air in place thats our best bet for some significant snow!

We do. Difficult to model at this range but looks increasingly likely that they won’t make much inroads into the U.K., at least initially.

[Rammie]

Be interesting to see if we get as much this time , as we did weekend before last. Near Kettering. 

[Andypvfc]

Haven't even got a snow symbol left here. Lol

 

 

[Shezale coventry]

18 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

We do. Difficult to model at this range but looks increasingly likely that they won’t make much inroads into the U.K., at least 

If my memory serves me right then we had a similar set up in 91 had upto 25cms when the atlantic tried to get in haven't seen that much snow since

[mother nature rocks]

Can we have a new thread set up please guys and gals fresh thread ready for the beast

[sheikhy]

34 minutes ago, Rammie said:

Be interesting to see if we get as much this time , as we did weekend before last. Near Kettering. 

Latest 06z  ecm gives you 20cms +

[snowangel32]

Ironic so called Beast from the East will be less cold than the recent cold spell where we hit -10 with heavy snow. Unless you are in the NE or the SE this will just feel like a few cold days. Give me a northerly anytime far better for the Mids generally as we are seeing at the weekend. Rare that fronts make inroads inland and stay as a coastal affair also massive wishbone effect.

Edited February 4, 2021 by snowangel32

[Andypvfc]

2 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Ironic so called Beast from the East will be less cold than the recent cold spell where we hit -10 with heavy snow. Unless you are in the NE or the SE this will just feel like a few cold days. Give me a northerly anytime far better for the Mids generally as we are seeing at the weekend. Rare that fronts make inroads inland and stay as a coastal affair also massive wishbone effect.

Exactly. Even the Met Office 10 day forecast yesterday, said it won't be as cold as the 2018BFTE. 

Well for Stoke the 2018 one was pathetic for Snow and although the wind was cold, it was no colder than a norm winter. 

Makes me wonder how these down South nowadays would react to the minus 15s we got every night in 2010.

[snowangel32]

5 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

Exactly. Even the Met Office 10 day forecast yesterday, said it won't be as cold as the 2018BFTE. 

Well for Stoke the 2018 one was pathetic for Snow and although the wind was cold, it was no colder than a norm winter. 

Makes me wonder how these down South nowadays would react to the minus 15s we got every night in 2010.

More like a feline cat from the East although East Anglia in for some heavy snowfall. But temps and widespread snowfall will be disappointing. If the snow gets further West than Oxford I will be suprised.

[MattStoke]

Should feel colder with lower day time temperatures than we’ve seen so far this winter. Any places that do see snow cover could well see lower night time temperatures than anything see this winter should winds fall light and winds clear. ECM had parts of the Midlands seeing night time minima down to -13’C by mid week. 

Airmass not as cold as 2018 but this is the heart of winter rather than late winter/early spring. That makes a big difference in temperatures and persistence of snow cover.

Any snow will be powdery rather than wet, and powdery snow gives a better moisture to snow ratio.

Eastern areas should do very well for snow. Western areas do though do better for snow in a northerly or even a westerly.

Edited February 4, 2021 by MattStoke

[snowangel32]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Should feel colder with lower day time temperatures than we’ve seen so far this winter. Any places that do see snow cover could well see lower night time temperatures than anything see this winter should winds fall light and winds clear. ECM had parts of the Midlands seeing night time minima down to -13’C by mid week. 

Any snow will be powdery rather than wet, and powdery snow gives a better moisture to snow ratio.

Eastern areas should do very well for snow. Western areas do though do better for snow in a northerly or even a westerly.

Yh powder snow is nice but dosent accumulate as much. For Me and You we are just to far West. Last cold spell we had a few ice days. This one will be around 1c daytime with 15 nighttime minima. I expect to see London on the news come Sunday with around 15cms.

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Yh powder snow is nice but dosent accumulate as much. For Me and You we are just to far West. Last cold spell we had a few ice days. This one will be around 1c daytime with 15 nighttime minima. I expect to see London on the news come Sunday with around 15cms.

I’d wouldn’t be surprised to see a few days in a row of temperatures not getting above 0’C here. 

Powder snow gives larger accumulations but you need large amounts or surfaces just get blown clear of it in the strong wind. I remember that being particularly annoying in 2018. The rapid snow melt in freezing temperatures and with full cloud cover was annoying too, but that shouldn’t be an issue earlier in the year.

Edited February 4, 2021 by MattStoke

[Vmistry]

MO weekend weather forecast just shows Sundays snow around east Anglia and some south eastern parts of the SE, doesn’t even get into the Midlands at all. Oh well

[wolvesman]

Whilst always wanting to be in the sweet spot for snow events it clearly cannot be the case - to be fair the Central and West Midlands have done well already this year and those in the SE are due a turn. Still hope to see more than a few flakes over the Sun-midweek period and who knows it may then be our turn to be in the right place for the fronts trying to get in later next week.

[andy_leics22]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

that Sunday? looks good and low much further South

I think sometimes in this thread, we all have a habit of speaking in terms of being biased to our own locations I'm guilty of that, as much as anybody else.

Personally, for my location (Northampton), Saturday into Sunday looks decent at the moment. I'm hoping the low stays the way it is, currently! But I understand for Brum northwards, it doesn't look as promising for the Weekend.

I still think all of us will see some heavy snow showers next week, though. The models are awful at forecasting showers from a Beasterly. Loads will blow inland from that strong wind. Even as far as Wales!

[shunthebartlett92]

16 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

I think sometimes in this thread, we all have a habit of speaking in terms of being biased to our own locations I'm guilty of that, as much as anybody else.

Personally, for my location (Northampton), Saturday into Sunday looks decent at the moment. I'm hoping the low stays the way it is, currently! But I understand for Brum northwards, it doesn't look as promising for the Weekend.

I still think all of us will see some heavy snow showers next week, though. The models are awful at forecasting showers from a Beasterly. Loads will blow inland from that strong wind. Even as far as Wales!

Exactly my point, and some are completely discarding the potential for convection to blow inland, which you just cant at this stage.

[weirpig]

I honestly dont think this event is going to be a widespread as people currently imagine   the far reaches of the east coast may get some  but for the rest  it will be down to where streamers  set up.  Arperge 12z  is a case in point

Edited February 4, 2021 by weirpig