Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[Gord]

Yep, memories of the first week of January 2010. Looked like a dry and cold week and not that exciting for us. We were all a bit resigned to that was how it was going to go. Then a sliding low or trough or something (sorry, can’t remember the exact details!) appeared at quite late notice and gave us quite a snowfall on the 5th. Only 2 days into the cold spell too.

I think it was January 2010 anyway.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Gord

[Fozfoster]

Well,  done with the little delete hitlers on the model thread ...... 

[MattStoke]

Finally the GFS crawls back to the easterly outlook with its tails between its legs. I don’t know why people get so hung up on that particular model when it’s out on its own, particularly when all the models with higher verification stats show something different. I don’t think this cold easterly has ever really been in doubt.

[MattStoke]

9 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Nice downward trend in temperatures on the automated forecasts.

Of course, it’s not really possible to forecast snow so far in advance, but wouldn’t expect much snow this far west unless we get some troughs/fronts. Nice to see snow symbols appearing though.

Edited February 2, 2021 by MattStoke

[Gord]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Of course, it’s not really possible to forecast snow so far in advance, but wouldn’t expect much snow this far west unless we get some troughs/fronts. Nice to see snow symbols appearing though.

Always the chance of stray flurries and dying showers in easterlies this far west. Probably what the forecasts are picking up on. 
 

Sometimes, mini flurry streamers set up, taking several hours just to build a cm. Seen that here before.

Then...very very occasionally...streamers like the one exactly 12 years ago today get going at an exact perfect angle and deliver the goods.

But I suspect these forecasts are picking up on the possibility of light showers flying across this way if the wind is strong enough.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Gord

[Andypvfc]

27 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Of course, it’s not really possible to forecast snow so far in advance, but wouldn’t expect much snow this far west unless we get some troughs/fronts. Nice to see snow symbols appearing though.

How come some are worried about it being a Midlands, North Snow event then Matt? I've not got time read every page lol

[Andypvfc]

Just now, Andypvfc said:

How come some are worried about it being a Midlands, North Snow event then Matt? I've not got time read every page lol

 

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Andypvfc said:

 

I think the model thread is full of snow starved southerners who are paranoid that it will go wrong for them (understandably really).

Got to favour the eastern half of the U.K. in an easterly flow. Possible to get disturbances that could increase the shower risk more widely, but not possible to forecast that until short range.

[Andypvfc]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I think the model thread is full of snow starved southerners who are paranoid that it will go wrong for them (understandably really).

Got to favour the eastern half of the U.K. in an easterly flow. Possible to get disturbances that could increase the shower risk more widely, but not possible to forecast that until short range.

Haha cheers mate, impossible to keep up with that thread lol

[Arctic Hare]

2 hours ago, Gord said:

Yep, memories of the first week of January 2010. Looked like a dry and cold week and not that exciting for us. We were all a bit resigned to that was how it was going to go. Then a sliding low or trough or something (sorry, can’t remember the exact details!) appeared at quite late notice and gave us quite a snowfall on the 5th. Only 2 days into the cold spell too.

I think it was January 2010 anyway.

A repeat of 2010 would certainly be interesting. Even more so if the end of the year followed the pattern of 11 years ago as well!

I'm back in the "I like snow" camp now, since I got my food delivery on Monday so I won't have to worry about that for a bit. Easterlies are fickle beasts, so we could easily end up with just a spell of cold, grey weather if no troughs appear in the right places. I think here in N Worcs we've done okay this winter already, so I'm fairly sanguine if the models do a 180 at T72 and decide it's actually going to be a raging SW'ly for the next month!

[WelfordRd]

Quick question, I keep hearing on the model tread, great from the Midlands North. Without stating the obvious what does that exactly mean. The Midlands is a big place. Does that mean Warwick North, Birmingham North or even Derby North? Or all of them? From what I have seen from the models northern England looks great but maybe not greaat for snow for the Midlands? 

[Gustywind]

We’ve certainly seen an improvement this morning, after yesterday’s runs we looked cold but mainly dry, only areas in N&E of region looked likely to see material levels of snow (upwards of 5cms).
 

Today looks much better though & if correct, most of us should see some decent amounts of snow, albeit not as much as those living North of the M62! Hopefully that channel low on the ECM will hit as for the biggest depths we need a proper front here.

[MattStoke]

Loving the ECM. No worries about snow showers pushing west enough if that came off. It has snow in from the east across the entire region from Sunday into early next week, then further ahead it brings in several fronts from the Atlantic with precipitation falling all as snow across the whole region.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Loving the ECM. No worries about snow showers pushing west enough if that came off. It has snow in from the east across the entire region from Sunday into early next week, then further ahead it brings in several fronts from the Atlantic with precipitation falling all as snow across the whole region.

perhaps the best EC I've seen in FI, GFS too good, yes turns a bit dry later, but 18Z was miles worse bringing in mild Atlantic

[BarometerCat]

36 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:

Quick question, I keep hearing on the model tread, great from the Midlands North. Without stating the obvious what does that exactly mean. The Midlands is a big place. Does that mean Warwick North, Birmingham North or even Derby North? Or all of them? From what I have seen from the models northern England looks great but maybe not greaat for snow for the Midlands? 

I find North Mids is mostly seen as Stoke, Derby and locations generally parallel.   I would not worry about predictions in mod thread too much, it's always on,off, too far North, South, East or West based on their location. For me too early to tell for next weekend yet but at a guess is looking good!

[WelfordRd]

18 minutes ago, B-C said:

I find North Mids is mostly seen as Stoke, Derby and locations generally parallel.   I would not worry about predictions in mod thread too much, it's always on,off, too far North, South, East or West based on their location. For me too early to tell for next weekend yet but at a guess is looking good!

Its definitely look alike we will get some cold in, I suppose it will all be about the precipitation and where thay goes, need a strong wind for showers to get as far as Hinckley and still have to ummf in them. Fingers crossed. Better thay mild weather for sure. 

[MattStoke]

41 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

perhaps the best EC I've seen in FI, GFS too good, yes turns a bit dry later, but 18Z was miles worse bringing in mild Atlantic

It’s a shame snow events very rarely occur as smoothly as on that ECM run.

Any snow forecast is FI at more than a few days out but the ECM output for Sunday is around the ‘semi-reliable’ time frame. That’s what we really need if we’re not to just see snow showers confined to the east.
 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It’s a shame snow events very rarely occur as smoothly as on that ECM run.

Any snow forecast is FI at more than a few days out but the ECM output for Sunday is around the ‘semi-reliable’ time frame. That’s what we really need if we’re not to just see snow showers confined to the east.
 

 

the lows from the SW are uncertain, GFS seems to have them too far south, EC just right

[MattStoke]

15 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

the lows from the SW are uncertain, GFS seems to have them too far south, EC just right

They will always be uncertain up until almost the last minute, but it’s Sunday’s output on the ECM that has caught my eye, with fronts across the country. Still uncertain though. Different models will have different placements on them.

[Sparkiee storm]

Wow, we may need a new thread for the weekend and next week lol.

[BarometerCat]

1 hour ago, WelfordRd said:

Its definitely look alike we will get some cold in, I suppose it will all be about the precipitation and where thay goes, need a strong wind for showers to get as far as Hinckley and still have to ummf in them. Fingers crossed. Better thay mild weather for sure. 

If we go from the 6z GFS this morning, we will be in for some wintry weather Sunday onwards!   But usual caveats apply so I'm going to not even think about it until Saturday/Sunday morning...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye 06Z, to nitpick it, the 2nd low on Tues needs to be further South, Midlands is in the dry zone inbetween the frontal ppn to the South, killing off the convective ppn, which is for Leeds area northwards, pure FI this though

 

 

[MattStoke]

ECM - Snowfest

GFS - Dry as a bone

(For Stoke)

Take your pick!

Need disturbances in the flow to see much over here.

[WelfordRd]

I know things can change and think it's certain we will get the cold in here now. I am pretty pessimistic about snow chances. We don't do great with an easterly flow so need to see troughs to give us snow. Might have to give the Mod Thread a miss for a bit as fed up of people in the SE saying snow nationwide when it's just for Eastern areas. The UK extends further north than Cambridge and further west that Heathrow Airport! Lol 

[Gord]

I get the excitement in the southeast having spent a good deal of my life on the North Sea Coast.

I've spent the first 20 years of my life in Lowestoft (and 2 in Sunderland), the greatest snow depths I've seen in my life have been in Lowestoft in 1987 and 1991 (matched in Sunderland by a persistant local streamer off the sea in 2004). They even beat 2 years I spent in Columbus, Ohio...nothing there came close to those experiences on the North Sea coast.

An easterly really is high risk and but very high reward for them. I've seen plenty of easterlies go wrong in Lowestoft. In fact, in some of them, the West Midlands has actually done better (March 2013 being the best example I can think of, remember speaking to my mum on the phone in Lowestoft who was sick of the constant rain while we were absolutely buried here in Gornal!). The proximity of the North Sea really can make it very marginal over there. I've also recalled times where Kent has been hit hard and Suffolk has remained dry...and vice versa.

That'll be why there's so much giddyness going on across the forums. The southeast has seen nothing all winter and now they've been offered a chance of their holy grail scenario...but it's very very risky for them hence the nervousness and tetchyness.

Snow is a safer bet over here during various scenarios which obviously don't just include easterlies, but the amounts we can get (and still can be impressive) would not normally come close to the amounts along the north sea counties when the stars align for them. Like I said, in Lowestoft, I've seen what I call perfection twice in 20 years (87/91) and a smattering of other decent but not on a par of those 2 years from easterlies.

Good luck to them.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Gord