Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Yep. ECM goes further north, but what a mess!

Wow!!!!!what an upgrade!!!!thats moved further north exactly like last week!!

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Wow!!!!!what an upgrade!!!!thats moved further north exactly like last week!!

Accumulation chart.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Sunday downgrade though on EC

[sheikhy]

13 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Accumulation chart.

Yeh tim bland posted the accumulation charts!!shows 5 to 10cms for central south midlands!!you couldnt make this up!!

[MattStoke]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yeh tim bland posted the accumulation charts!!shows 5 to 10cms for central south midlands!!you couldnt make this up!!

Pretty much what I’ve been saying all along. Central West Midlands into Mid Wales best place for some accumulations. It’s why I’m surprised the warning was removed for the Midlands completely.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

EC has gone tits up, was always FI anyway

[Dancerwithwings]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Pretty much what I’ve been saying all along. Central West Midlands into Mid Wales best place for some accumulations. It’s why I’m surprised the warning was removed for the Midlands completely.

WarningS I’m surprised as well ...all to be seen

[high ground birmingham]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Pretty much what I’ve been saying all along. Central West Midlands into Mid Wales best place for some accumulations. It’s why I’m surprised the warning was removed for the Midlands completely.

Birmingham may possibly be in a good place then. Although I need to get out and about tomorrow in the car so not too bothered if it doesn’t snow here for once

[WorldExplore]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Pretty much what I’ve been saying all along. Central West Midlands into Mid Wales best place for some accumulations. It’s why I’m surprised the warning was removed for the Midlands completely.

The accum chart seems almost as good as the original meto warning area before they removed it.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

marky wilmer in Frankley will get loads

[Georgina]

Does anyone think it will get as far north as Derbyshire ?

[andy_leics22]

23 minutes ago, Georgina said:

Does anyone think it will get as far north as Derbyshire ?

There is a possibility! It will be close though. I would think that if it does make it that far North, it will be light in nature, but still, light snow is better than no snow

[Georgina]

9 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

There is a possibility! It will be close though. I would think that if it does make it that far North, it will be light in nature, but still, light snow is better than no snow

Thankyou ! 

[Chunky Flake]

As long as we get a pounding this weekend sat or Sunday I am happy 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Fascinating outlook atm.

We are in a major battle.

If cold air to the north wins out,  we can then turn into prolonged very cold and wintry pattern.

Conversely if the south wins we turn wet and mild.

Reasonably normal you might think for British winters..

 

This situation is what used to happen fairly regularly in the 60s and 70s.

 

However this is different this year from the last decade as its happening right over our heads.

The difference is illustrated by todays ECM,

This mornings run moved the snow south and west as the low slid SE towards southern Europe. Result an eventual BFTE.

This evening - the low seems to stall and move south.

Interestingly short term it is better for most of the Midlands (with probably more snow in our area)  in the immediate short term.

But longer term we need the lows to slide SE into France in order to bring us into a prolonged wintry spell. 

Eventually this evaluation  (SE) and with more snow next week as other lows move SE, brought us into a BFTE territory.

 

So guys it looks like short-term gain for long term pain.

And possibly vice versa.

 

 Also remember that the biggest snow storms in the past have occurred during this battle  for airmasses over the UK.

We really do have a battle ground fight going on over our heads at the moment.

We  can still get snow on Saturday and Sunday and win out.  BUT it will take longer for the really cold ait to get in. This is fraught with danger for the longer timescale, as it may get hijacked..

The best option was if the low elongated itself (watch for strong easterly winds developing) and crosses southern England into Europe as a slider. 

MIA 

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[sheikhy]

Its 8 degrees here right now!!you wouldnt even think snow is in the forecast!!

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, Chunky Flake said:

As long as we get a pounding this weekend sat or Sunday I am happy 

But what about the weather?

[mother nature rocks]

Oooooh matron

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Its 8 degrees here right now!!you wouldnt even think snow is in the forecast!!

Just over a week ago it was 8’C at 8.30pm, and 0’C with heavy settling snow at 9pm.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Just over a week ago it was 8’C at 8.30pm, and 0’C with heavy settling snow at 9pm.

Storm Christoph, but this setup different, less cold air

[MattStoke]

Taken the Met Office warning and drawn on roughly where I think the best zone for snow accumulations will be. Let’s see what happens  

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, Dancerwithwings said:

WarningS I’m surprised as well ...all to be seen

They follow the ECM exclusively. (as does Shefali, but she never picks upon the one issued at 18:30, for her charts).

Hence tonight she waffled for a minute of her two minutes on the January rainfall, rather than discuss the problems within the current charts.. 

The MO  moved the warnings further south and west this morning and we lost them here. Shefali showed those same warning charts. Gloucester, Herfordshire and Worcestershire 

This evenings ECM has shown the  pattern from this morning , and they have not yet updated the warnings yet.

Interestingly ECM also puts more snow out on Sunday, The main country wide forecast picked up on it. But Shefali didn't.  

PS Here it has just dropped form 8.5C to 7.5C so it is on the slide now.

The really colder air is not expected to arrive until after the rain has started. I expect a rain to snow event.

Will it be heavy enough to settle is the question?

MIA

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Sweatyman]

26 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Its 8 degrees here right now!!you wouldnt even think snow is in the forecast!!

yep seems mad. I cant find myself waking up tomoz to it snowing out there!

[Sweatyman]

25 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Just over a week ago it was 8’C at 8.30pm, and 0’C with heavy settling snow at 9pm.

Lol completely forgot about that! How could i? blimey i got short memory.

[PolarWarsaw]

Tomorrow looks like a wet sleety mess, falling on warm ground in marginal conditions favourable to the heavy PPN. Somewhere in the very far western tip might do well, Snowdonia etc - but I can't see much if any settling snow on lower ground North or east of Worcester. 

MO have jumped the gun using broad brush warnings for 3 entire days next week - can't see any of it. I expect those to be removed too. It's hilarious to see how they have reacted since their failings last weekend. 

Let's see where the next chase takes us. Next weekend/week is over IMO.