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Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: snow!!!!
  • Location: Stourbridge, West Midlands

1894675944_Screenshot_20210129-120507_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.f187d951207320b4d6adc49d03b6090d.jpg

Met office 11am forecast for tomorrow for this area.  Who knows what's going to happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.

I've given up on tomorrow, now. I still think areas above 200m will see some snow, though. My location is 70m ASL, so that has kinda killed it for such a marginal event

 

I'm more interested in the medium- long term charts now. Next Thursday onwards is when a possible Easterly could establish itself -10 uppers across the board! Give me that over marginality.

Edited by andy_leics22
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
6 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

I've given up on tomorrow, now. I still think areas above 200m will see some snow, though. My location is 70m ASL, so that has kinda killed it for such a marginal event

 

I'm more interested in the medium- long term charts now. Next Thursday onwards is when a possible Easterly could establish itself -10 uppers across the board! Give me that over marginality.

Aye, but it is FI,

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Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
1 minute ago, Chunky Flake said:

Looks like game over for tomorrow Andy 

Yep a few models are still showing snow, but the big boys aren't! Elevation will come into play though. I do think some areas of Birmingham will see snow, purely because of the extra height. I very much doubt it for anywhere below 100m, though.

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Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, but it is FI,

It kinda is and it kinda isn't

I tend to judge anything between t72 and t180 as medium range. If a trend starts to develop within a t180 timeframe, I will take it more seriously than if it was after that. Now it's a case of seeing how that develops over the next 3 days. If we still have an Easterly on the cards for the end of next week, by Monday, then the chances of it happening are pretty likely The good thing is, the ECM and UKMO are on board with it, at the moment. If it was just the GFS going for it, without the support of those 2, I would probably dismiss it.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
2 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

It kinda is and it kinda isn't

I tend to judge anything between t72 and t180 as medium range. If a trend starts to develop within a t180 timeframe, I will take it more seriously than if it was after that. Now it's a case of seeing how that develops over the next 3 days. If we still have an Easterly on the cards for the end of next week, by Monday, then the chances of it happening are pretty likely The good thing is, the ECM and UKMO are on board with it, at the moment. If it was just the GFS going for it, without the support of those 2, I would probably dismiss it.

I would agree its not without a chance as its been consistently modelled lately. ecm and gfs in agreement and now ukmo aswell. As you say though until around mon/tues there is far to much time to pass in which it could change. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Just now, MattStoke said:

I would take the ICON for mid week even though it would eventually turn back to rain

AD816049-4498-43D3-BBDC-07BFBB26D2D5.jpeg

1538BA2A-C2E7-474E-ADF3-DDFE0A5CC531.jpeg

Wouldn't trust it after 72 hours as it switches to low resolution. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
2 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Wouldn't trust it after 72 hours as it switches to low resolution. 

Doesn’t take into melt, and it has sleet and freezing rain as accumulating snow, but it’s nice to dream! Does look like we could see a few cm of short lived snow mid week.

The UKV now has tomorrow’s front reaching as far as me, so I could see a little light snow but I still think central West Midlands into Mid Wales are best place for any accumulation.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

I find it strange why the Ukmo have removed areas from the warning from some of the region.

Last week the models were wrong at 24 hours, so it could easily happen again...

I'm only expecting a slushy 2-3 cm but it's not out of the question areas above 100 metres could get over 5cm

Icon 9z swinging back to a better event.

 

iconeu_uk1-45-30-0.png

Edited by Battleground Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
7 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM 06z must have been better too as the BBC have this for Coventry.

 

Screenshot_20210129-135534.png

Yeh its goind down to the wire again!!keep an eye on sat24 from here on in!!might get a jist of how far north this will go!!

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Latest UKV for tomorrow, for what it’s worth.

Appears to produce some wintry precipitation ahead of the main band, around the Peak District Area.

Northern Limit looks slightly further north than previous updates, around Stoke-on-Trent, but a wintry mix.

Turns more widely to snow as it pulls away south.

69318CD9-ED3E-4FD1-AD6C-DBC1F2527188.jpeg

F08680C4-AFA8-409E-A801-C8BA2A92083E.jpeg

A8E19961-0780-477E-B5E7-20E1388E8B24.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

 

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Does anyone else not really rate the ukv?

It gets posted alot, but it seems to undercook precipitation, I think the arome is the best model for picking out precipitation.

Icon is trending north again.

 

iconeu_uk1-45-30-0 (1).png

ICON has a lot more snow than previous runs. Last minute upgrades?

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Let's hope! Would be comical if the met office were forced to update it again.

Mind you, it has very little settling.

iconeu_uk1-46-32-0_aie1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nantwich, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Extreme Weather
  • Location: Nantwich, Cheshire

The same people who issued an Amber warning last Sunday as the snow moved away from Derbyshire.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
4 minutes ago, RobR said:

The same people who issued an Amber warning last Sunday as the snow moved away from Derbyshire.

Snow stopped falling here the very second that flashed up on my phone and I didn’t see a single flake after that  

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
10 minutes ago, wolvesman said:

Arpege looks tasty for midweek.

A8FBA752-FE74-401D-A4FC-E6AB7521B121.png

It has continuous snowfall for most of the region from early hours of Tuesday well into Wednesday.

Bank! Bank! Bank!

arpege-45-114-0_bsd7.png

Edited by MattStoke
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