Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[MattStoke]

Warning cancelled for the Midlands.

Edited January 29, 2021 by MattStoke

[Snowshine]

58 minutes ago, the lad sharp said:

After many years of watching these forums I’ve learnt one thing in particular. If the ‘experts’ say it will be marginal, it will  fall as rain. 

This is often the case in Warwickshire (and the South Midlands), we don't do particularly well when it comes to these 'marginal' events. It always seems to be too warm by a degree or two. Central/North Midlands always seem to perform better in these scenarios. The forecast for Saturday is one such example of this:

Edited January 29, 2021 by xSnow

[Selliso]

Much further south - as expected with model outputs

[MattStoke]

Just now, Selliso said:

Much further south - as expected with model outputs

We’ll sort of. That’s much further south than every publicly available model has it.

[Chunky Flake]

Huge downgrade 

[Selliso]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

We’ll sort of. That’s much further south than every publicly available model has it.

Agree that ppn might extend into our neck of the woods, but the warning is rightly adjusted south as an indicator of where the core of ppn now appears most likely to be and therefore highest risk of accumulating snow and distruption.

[BarometerCat]

MET cancel Yellow warning.  Still think there is uncertainty going forward so not taking this as a huge downgrade or anything just yet.  Last snow event is kind of proof of how unpredictable this winter has been.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Sunday nothing again on GFS

[sheikhy]

Seen that coming but maybe not that far south considering the 18z models had it way further north!!!are theere any models that take it further north than that crappy warning?!

[GokouD]

Booooo....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Seen that coming but maybe not that far south considering the 18z models had it way further north!!!are theere any models that take it further north than that crappy warning?!

GFS does, but not for Sunday

[snowangel32]

Well at least the will it won't stress is over for the weekend now mainly rain with a chance it turns to snow briefly. This was always to marginal tbh especially with a huge warm sector mixed in the front. I think even the new warnings will be removed by tonight.

[Midlander]

Well you win some and lose some - if I can record a snow flake falling to add another day of falling snow I’ll be happy

Anyway it won’t be long till the next chase - keep an eye out for Tuesday (some Southey corrections) would not go a miss!

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Selliso said:

Agree that ppn might extend into our neck of the woods, but the warning is rightly adjusted south as an indicator of where the core of ppn now appears most likely to be and therefore highest risk of accumulating snow and distruption.

I still think it will be more of the central West Midlands seeing the larger snow amounts. 

[Eskimo]

The warning reflects higher elevation of the Welsh hills and Cotswolds, so there's confidence now that's it's really just a 300m+ event. The warning will only stipulate settling snow as the risk, therefore whilst those north of the warning area may still see snow, settling snow is limited away from higher ground. 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Eskimo

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Seen that coming but maybe not that far south considering the 18z models had it way further north!!!are theere any models that take it further north than that crappy warning?!

Pretty much all of them. I would honestly expect some snow, including some accumulations, if I lived in the central West Midlands. I’m surprised they’ve put the warning that far south and removed it from the Midlands entirely. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Well you win some and lose some - if I can record a snow flake falling to add another day of falling snow I’ll be happy

Anyway it won’t be long till the next chase - keep an eye out for Tuesday (some Southey corrections) would not go a miss!

need southerly shift on that! probably won't though

[snowangel32]

3 minutes ago, B-C said:

MET cancel Yellow warning.  Still think there is uncertainty going forward so not taking this as a huge downgrade or anything just yet.  Last snow event is kind of proof of how unpredictable this winter has been.

Nope this one is done. Long term looks much more promising though.

[MattStoke]

There has been a bit of a southward shift since the first warning was issued, but nowhere near as much as the new warning suggests. Oh well. Time will tell.

This winter is far from done with anyway, so no real need to fret even for those who have seen little or no snow so far.

Edited January 29, 2021 by MattStoke

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS still powering Atlantic through, Tues like repeat of last Tues

[shunthebartlett92]

2 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Nope this one is done. Long term looks much more promising though.

I wouldn’t be so brash still, think it can still tip in our favour. I’d say 20-30% chance still of an accumulation.

[snowangel32]

I always find if your in the initial warning zone with a few days to go its not a good thing. As its always going to move North or South especially in marginal situations.

[Selliso]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I still think it will be more of the central West Midlands seeing the larger snow amounts. 

Don't get me wrong - I'd love to be shovelling snow off the driveway again (the last piles of the stuff melted here overnight last night) and the Met could be wrong! 

[Midlander]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS still powering Atlantic through, Tues like repeat of last Tues

Yeah although the MO seem more convinced that the cold will put a stronger fight - highest temp is only 4c till next Thursday 

[snowangel32]

2 minutes ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

I wouldn’t be so brash still, think it can still tip in our favour. I’d say 20-30% chance still of an accumulation.

More like a 5% chance maybe and thats just for a bit of falling snow. Its just to marginal mate and this time we are on the wrong side.