Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[wolvesman]

GFS looks peachy.

[weirpig]

5 minutes ago, wolvesman said:

GFS looks peachy.

Not to different from the arome 12z   

[Midlander]

Northern extent of 12Z GFS with place names, TBH whats more surprising then the warning being issued in the first place, is the MO highlighting the possibility of 10-15cm - I just can't see anything that extreme. Even the often OTT GFS shows little accumulation

 

[GokouD]

I'm just going to hope that they know something we don't, rather that they're just jumpy because they missed how heavy last weekend was!

[shunthebartlett92]

I dont know why theres so much dismissing this event, as it stands, think a few centimetres is possible across the midlands? Its tracking in from the southwest and pushing northwards rather than a 'slider channel low' which is more likely to have a southern correction. 

[andy_leics22]

Well well well. What do we have here then? Round 2?

[andy_leics22]

2 minutes ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

I dont know why theres so much dismissing this event, as it stands, think a few centimetres is possible across the midlands? Its tracking in from the southwest and pushing northwards rather than a 'slider channel low' which is more likely to have a southern correction. 

It looks as though the sweet spot could again be somewhere in the Midlands. My guess would be somewhere around Birmingham. Maybe Worcestershire I think elevation will be key as well. Anywhere above 200m and you'll be laughing. I'm at 70m asl, so it could be too marginal here, but we'll see. After the last snow event, i'm just happy that I finally got to see some decent snowfall again! I hadn't seen decent snow since March 2018, before my 18 month stint in Spain/Gibraltar.

[MattStoke]

Ha! Typical! The ICON and GFS making me eat my words to an extent by both trending southward a bit Still think around Birmingham southwards could do well. Might write this one off for Stoke should things look similar or any further south tomorrow morning.

[Eskimo]

I'll reserve any judgement until it's on the bloody radar. Last week's was, what, 50-100 miles further north than what the models were predicting THAT VERY MORNING!?

[weirpig]

NNM 5   and harmonie

  

Edited January 28, 2021 by weirpig

[TyphoonNow]

Last time it stopped about 7 miles south of me in Chesterfield. Looks about the same this time or even further South.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

40 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Ha! Typical! The ICON and GFS making me eat my words to an extent by both trending southward a bit Still think around Birmingham southwards could do well. Might write this one off for Stoke should things look similar or any further south tomorrow morning.

Aye, GFS as expected trended south with Saturdays front, with all tomorrow's runs, each of them expect a S trend, reckon tomorrows 12Z it won't get past B'ham

for Sundays snow, GFS a bit further NE

[Andypvfc]

Anyone ever used this Radar before, still shows a spell of Snow for South Cheshire, Southwards Sat Morn.

[MattStoke]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, GFS as expected trended south with Saturdays front, with all tomorrow's runs, each of them expect a S trend, reckon tomorrows 12Z it won't get past B'ham

for Sundays snow, GFS a bit further NE

On the latest updates, most models have the northern extent just a few miles to my south, so probably around Stone. That’s the same as the northern extent predicted for last Sunday’s system but, as people have pointed out, that was a different type of system.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

On the latest updates, most models have the northern extent just a few miles to my south, so probably around Stone. That’s the same as the northern extent predicted for last Sunday’s system but, as people have pointed out, that was a different type of system.

UKMO to me looks like B'ham S event, dry written all over it Staffs

[MattStoke]

43 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

UKMO to me looks like B'ham S event, dry written all over it Staffs

If the Euro4 is right, it won’t even get into the Midlands.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

BBC TV weather, looked great, snow all over Midlands Sat and Sun, but uncertainty highlighted

[MKN]

Shift southward so far today however the same happened fri just gone only to then show northward movements the day before. Even on the day itself precip can be north or south 20-30 miles different to what charts are showing. All to play for. 

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

BBC TV weather, looked great, snow all over Midlands Sat and Sun, but uncertainty highlighted

They purely copy the last ECM run.

[Andypvfc]

3 minutes ago, MKN said:

Shift southward so far today however the same happened fri just gone only to then show northward movements the day before. Even on the day itself precip can be north or south 20-30 miles different to what charts are showing. All to play for. 

Not when your the far North of North Staffs, and you get absolutely nowt, compared to Matt getting excited over half a CM in Longton. Sorry Matt, couldn't resist lol

[andy_leics22]

Bit of a 'battle of the models' happening tonight, in regards to Saturday's possible event.

HIRLAM only just scrapes Birmingham on its Northern edge. HARMONIE stretches up to Stoke but is very light anywhere North of Birmingham. The ARPEGE is probably best viewing for all of us in the Midlands. Moderate PPN reaching as far North as Stoke and Derbyshire. ICON goes for the band reaching Birmingham on its Northern edge and the PPN is patchy in nature. The GFS looks decent for more widespread snow at the moment too, but the intensity of the PPN doesn't look too heavy.

It's going to be another close run thing! 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

They purely copy the last ECM run.

I expect southwards trends on EC, certainly for Sat, is it my imagination or is Sunday's low moving slowly north every run?

bbc had Saturdays front getting upto S Pennines

[Andypvfc]

Remember the 96 event, when they had around 18 inches in the North West. Oh for an event like that again in Stoke.

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

Not when your the far North of North Staffs, and you get absolutely nowt, compared to Matt getting excited over half a CM in Longton. Sorry Matt, couldn't resist lol

There were many winters I have killed for half a cm of snow! Heck, there were many winters where I’d kill to see a few wet flakes falling mixed amongst the rain!

I’ll take any wintry weather I can get

[MattStoke]

Latest ECM. Northern edge is Stoke. Can’t get much closer than that!