Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[MattStoke]

Met Office clearly have confidence that snow will settle, with the warning stating 3-7cm to low levels. Most of the models show accumulation.

[weirpig]

17 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Right guys just taken a look at the ecm06z pressure charts and it looks further south than gfs!!so i assume the 06z update will probably more of a direct hit for the south midlands?!

Got a link mate.  Cor seem to find it 

[wolvesman]

Hopefully they will be right Matt but just feel that the intensity will have to be sufficient and long enough to get the ground temperature sufficiently cold as the air temp certainly doesn’t look to be. May be a rapid thaw of any accumulated snow once intensity drops as well.

[high ground birmingham]

I think we may need a new thread in readiness for this weekend’s potential snow events

[MattStoke]

Hate that ECM update but one update of one model doesn’t decide anything. Saw lots of people claiming last Sunday’s systems would end up further south, and we know what happened.

[AltonMatthew]

17 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Hate that ECM update but one update of one model doesn’t decide anything. Saw lots of people claiming last Sunday’s systems would end up further south, and we know what happened.

Exactly, last weekend was now casting and window watching. We were adamant this was a southern event and yet we ended up with 24cm here with it only just thawing fully last night.

I actually have to commit heresy and say this weekend I kind of need it to stay dry as I am looking to install my shed base... but if it does snow I will of course enjoy it all the same haha

I think these things are rarely nailed on until an hour or so before, we’ve all watched weather radars that react totally different than expected. 
Im more than happy to actually have a chance this winter! The last few have been dire!  

[Andypvfc]

2 hours ago, weirpig said:

 

That's what us on the Cheshire Border need, you Southern lot had some last week lol

[wolvesman]

The BBC Weather forecast at 1.30 made good viewing with snow for much of Saturday and Sunday in line with the earlier ECM although they did say the weather system was causing some difficulties in forecasting.

[sheikhy]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Got a link mate.  Cor seem to find it 

weather model ecmwf model - united kingdom - surface pressure [base + 24] | weatheronline

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

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Weather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology, reports, weather warning.

No precipitation just 850s on these and surface pressure but more than good enough i think!!can still sort of make out where the band of snow is when looking at pressure charts!

[PolarWarsaw]

Being completely honest, last weeks system moved North but this is a totally different set up. That was 1 off. Having watched and lived int the Midlands for 30 years, I can categorically name on 1 hand the times that has happened - it's not a new trend to pay much attention too, we just got very lucky north of Birmingham last weekend.

The front is weaker and moving in at a slightly different angle. It's also coming up against colder air that's slightly further west. When all is said and done this has all the hallmarks of probably weakening over Wales and the SW. Perhaps to provide the likes of South and West Hereford/Gloucester/Worcester some light snow. That warning zone will be moved/shifted, just like last week.

Shame really, as I fancied being greedy. 

The ground will also be wet this week and again, speaking from experience of the local area. Even if it snows heavily for hours, that 'wet' under layer will decrease any accumulations and melt things quicker once a few people have stood in it. We need a dry couple of days now, cold at night, then the initial band to be much further North, with enough intensity to start as snow. 

Anyone much further N or E of Bristol, keep your expectations to 'a dry weekend' - anything else is a bonus. 

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Being completely honest, last weeks system moved North but this is a totally different set up. That was 1 off. Having watched and lived int the Midlands for 30 years, I can categorically name on 1 hand the times that has happened - it's not a new trend to pay much attention too, we just got very lucky north of Birmingham last weekend.

The front is weaker and moving in at a slightly different angle. It's also coming up against colder air that's slightly further west. When all is said and done this has all the hallmarks of probably weakening over Wales and the SW. Perhaps to provide the likes of South and West Hereford/Gloucester/Worcester some light snow. That warning zone will be moved/shifted, just like last week.

Shame really, as I fancied being greedy. 

The ground will also be wet this week and again, speaking from experience of the local area. Even if it snows heavily for hours, that 'wet' under layer will decrease any accumulations and melt things quicker once a few people have stood in it. We need a dry couple of days now, cold at night, then the initial band to be much further North, with enough intensity to start as snow. 

Anyone much further N or E of Bristol, keep your expectations to 'a dry weekend' - anything else is a bonus. 

I think that would take the biggest backtrack from every single model at the 11th hour that I have ever seen.

[MattStoke]

8 minutes ago, wolvesman said:

The BBC Weather forecast at 1.30 made good viewing with snow for much of Saturday and Sunday in line with the earlier ECM although they did say the weather system was causing some difficulties in forecasting.

They always just copy the most recent ECM run. ECM looks on its own for Sunday.

[high ground birmingham]

The set up this weekend reminds me a little of 8 and 9 Feb 2007. By the end of that event, we had like 8-10 inches of lying snow before it started to thaw. That was a really big snowfall in an otherwise poor winter.

Not sure how synoptically similar this is but just reminded me of that event

[PolarWarsaw]

22 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

They always just copy the most recent ECM run. ECM looks on its own for Sunday.

Which part mate?

Lot of the models don't get the front to Birmingham, apart from very light PPN that will make the floor wet. 

I know you are extra positive because of moving to London and Stoke seems like heading from the Desert to Narnia, but this weekends set up has all the hallmarks of a nothing event for most of England/The midlands, especially further N and E you go.

Hopefully I'm wrong pal.

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Which part mate?

Lot of the models don't get the front to Birmingham, apart from very light PPN that will make the floor wet. 

I know you are extra positive because of moving to London and Stoke seems like heading from the Desert to Narnia, but this weekends set up has all the hallmarks of a nothing event for most of England/The midlands, especially further N and E you go.

Hopefully I'm wrong pal.

The vast majority of models get the front further north than that. 

I’ve seen such southward shifts before but not from every model within 48 hours.

Edited January 28, 2021 by MattStoke

[PolarWarsaw]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

The vast majority of models get the front further north than that. 

I’ve seen such southward shifts before but not from every model within 48 hours.

They do. 

But for how much longer?

90% of the models are correcting South and West with each set of output, whilst the main core of the PPN is getting weaker and weaker across the Midlands. It all stinks of a 'snizzle' fest anywhere Brum (if not further) S and W. 

IMO, currently this is no comparative at the surface to what last weekend produced, or anything like. 

[Andypvfc]

Matt Hugo on Twitter who's well respected on the North West was hinting at it mainly a Wales, Brum Southwards event, so looks like North of Stoke will be like last weekend and be dry lol

[Eskimo]

Just went out for the first time today and it feels a lot like Spring! 12.4C here. 

[MattStoke]

21 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

They do. 

But for how much longer?

90% of the models are correcting South and West with each set of output, whilst the main core of the PPN is getting weaker and weaker across the Midlands. It all stinks of a 'snizzle' fest anywhere Brum (if not further) S and W. 

IMO, currently this is no comparative at the surface to what last weekend produced, or anything like. 

Looks like they’ve been trending northwards to me Yesterday none even had it getting into the U.K. This morning one or two still had it not reaching the Midlands. Now they all do.

My best guess is largest amounts of snow around Birmingham across into Wales. Smaller amounts further north to around the far north of the region. Maybe as far north as Lancashire. South of the region may struggle to see much if any accumulation.

Unless we do get a big shift southward and I’m made to eat my words!

Edited January 28, 2021 by MattStoke

[weirpig]

If im honest  it looks like the northern extent could be around Glos     they always go south    we shall see   not really that bothered to be honest   a little snowed out

[wolvesman]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

If im honest  it looks like the northern extent could be around Glos     they always go south    we shall see   not really that bothered to be honest   a little snowed out

Can never be snowed out in this country but have actually enjoyed the hint of spring out there today as well. Agree likely trend is Southwards now.

[PolarWarsaw]

10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Looks like they’ve been trending northwards to me Yesterday none even had it getting into the U.K. This morning one or two still had it not reaching the Midlands. Now they all do.

My best guess is largest amounts of snow around Birmingham across into Wales. Smaller amounts further north to around the far north of the region. Maybe as far north as Lancashire. South of the region may struggle to see much if any accumulation.

Unless we do get a big shift southward and I’m made to eat my words!

It trended North originally a couple of days or so ago, but since then it's plain as day IMO that it's moving slowly SW and is likely to continue to keep doing so. Last week was absolutely anomalous in terms of usual patterns for us here.  We will need a late shift back in our favour up here as I'm expecting to stay dry all weekend. I can genuinely remember last week and virtually nothing else comes to mind in terms of northward shifts close to an event.

I hope you are correct though pal. 

 

3 minutes ago, wolvesman said:

Can never be snowed out in this country but have actually enjoyed the hint of spring out there today as well. Agree likely trend is Southwards now.

Get off it will you, it's bloody January.

It's spring/summer/mild/mundane like for about 10 months of the year in the woeful climate of this country. 

Let the coldies embrace the miniscule amount of fun we have! 

Hopefully there's an 8 week ice age inbound.

[weirpig]

latest icon   a soutward shift   with very little settling snow   

[Midlander]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

latest icon   a soutward shift   with very little settling snow   

Yes an undeniable shift south, here another view with place names showing the northern most extent of the precip. Can't really be too bothered about it given last weeks surprise. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by AppleUK 123

[Andypvfc]

I wouldn't worry too much if we miss out Sat. Feb looks very entertaining