Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[RobR]

4 hours ago, Arctic Hare said:

I'm afraid this time I am rooting strongly for not having snow in these parts, certainly nothing on the scale of last weekend. When my Sainsbury's delivery got cancelled, after quite some effort I managed to grab a new delivery slot for Monday morning. That needs to get though. Missing one week's delivery is annoying, missing two would mean I was running genuinely short on food. I'm afraid that's more important than snow for me, heresy as it is to say that on a weather forum!

Of course, I'm all in favour of lots of snow away from that time, and for everyone out there who hasn't seen much so far! But right here, this weekend into Monday, no. Keep it away!

Are we now looking at a Saturday and Sunday event potentially or just one?

[weirpig]

icon 18z

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, RobR said:

Are we now looking at a Saturday and Sunday event potentially or just one?

just Sat for now

[MattStoke]

GFS takes the precipitation a touch further north but the colder air a touch further south.

Edited January 27, 2021 by MattStoke

[Midlander]

Just for fun, but imo WRF NMM was the most consistent HighRES model in terms of the track of last weeks snow event. I really hope its correct!

 

[MattStoke]

20 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Just for fun, but imo WRF NMM was the most consistent HighRES model in terms of the track of last weeks snow event. I really hope its correct!

 

According to the model thread, Stoke and the Peak District are one and the same, so that should boost my snowfall amounts from this.

What nonsense  They could hardly be more different. Some people just cannot admit to being wrong.

Edited January 27, 2021 by MattStoke

[Shezale coventry]

19 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Just for fun, but imo WRF NMM was the most consistent HighRES model in terms of the track of last weeks snow event. I really hope its correct!

 

Last week snow was one of the rare occasions the front went north. Im fully expecting a shift south in the comming days

[MattStoke]

Automated forecasts beginning to pick up on the risk. I know they’re highly unreliable but it’s good to see that these models are picking up on the snow risk.

[WeatherPhysio]

4 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

EDITED......12z ECM That’s looks an easy 15cm-plus for Saturday, 6am to 12pm ..

Sorry I know you guys have posted these before me, but these precipitation charts are a thing of beauty.....I just couldn’t help myself

What could possibly go WRONG

Hoping EMA area gets some again then! What an event last Sunday was! A repeat would be nice!

[Snowshine]

Saturday could be interesting, but there is high amount of uncertainty as to whether temperatures will be low enough for snow to fall or even settle.

 

[Essan]

7 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Automated forecasts beginning to pick up on the risk. I know they’re highly unreliable but it’s good to see that these models are picking up on the snow risk.

Aye, the MetO not-a-forecast is even showing a snow risk for down here, both Sat morning (but turning to rain) and more especially Sunday night ....    Will not doubt change as the models waver, but if it's shown for lowly Evesham then it bodes well for higher ground further north.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Essan

[MattStoke]

Models holding firm so far this morning. Most bring Saturday’s front across the whole region. A few though keep it a bit further south, so still some uncertainty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Models holding firm so far this morning. Most bring Saturday’s front across the whole region. A few though keep it a bit further south, so still some uncertainty.

GFS too far north for low levels, others mostly too far south for Sat, Sun don't think any model gives snow here

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS too far north for low levels, others mostly too far south for Sat, Sun don't think any model gives snow here

GFS gives settling snow for the northern half of the region on Saturday. Most other models have snow more widely for the region. The only ones that have it further south are the UKV and Aperge, and they were both far too far south last weekend right up to the last minute.

Sunday’s risk does look dead though. The front barely makes it into the U.K.

[Dancerwithwings]

10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS gives settling snow for the northern half of the region on Saturday. Most other models have snow more widely for the region. The only ones that have it further south are the UKV and Aperge, and they were both far too far south last weekend right up to the last minute.

Sunday’s risk does look dead though. The front barely makes it into the U.K.

Just remember, last Sunday’s event and the day before was struggling to bring the snowfall to me here in Solihull and cometh Sunday it went a lot further North than anyone expected....so who knows 

The BBC and MetO (Heavy snow for me Sat) for now

[I remember Atlantic 252]

snow and sleet for me

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

snow and sleet for me

Keep faith in ecm mate!!!!

[MattStoke]

Actually, the ECM does bring snow for the north of the region on Sunday, so maybe Sunday’s snow risk isn’t completely dead.

[wolvesman]

Whilst there is still some uncertainty on the exact track Saturday looks to be quite a marginal event, certainly more so than last weekend. I suspect height will be needed for significant accumulations although at this stage not sure what altitude required but probably 200m or so. May still see some temporary accumulations lower down but track and consequent intensity will be key.

[WeatherPhysio]

8 minutes ago, wolvesman said:

Whilst there is still some uncertainty on the exact track Saturday looks to be quite a marginal event, certainly more so than last weekend. I suspect height will be needed for significant accumulations although at this stage not sure what altitude required but probably 200m or so. May still see some temporary accumulations lower down but track and consequent intensity will be key.

More for Wolves and Birmingham for sure, looks less for EMA way in comparison to last Sunday. But unsure? Better than nothing!

[wolvesman]

I should have started my previous post by saying how refreshing it is to talk about another snow opportunity, seems like one a week this year - definitely a good winter for our area.

[MattStoke]

Latest ICON shows what we really don’t want. The front ends up too far north with rain for all which turns to snow later across the north of the Midlands but with little accumulation.

[shunthebartlett92]

Certainly looks like theres a few things to sort out in the scheme of things for saturday. Certainly the possibility is there, however im fully prepared for a wet snow situation in the mids and as others have said, far less clear cut over the precipitation type than last sunday. 

[weirpig]

GFS 6z   looks to be further south    Still loads of chopping  to go before now and then 

[sheikhy]

Gfs 06z direct hit for the midlands!!its moved towards ecm!!