Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It’s ironic that the SSW appears to have knocked us out of a quite cold pattern. Not that that outlook is anywhere near guaranteed. May still see some ‘battleground’ ground snow events but does look like just copious cold rain for most.

certainly looks that way, northern England looks okay as things seemed to have moved north on recent runs

[BarometerCat]

Snowing here in Nottingham Settling a bit too.

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, B-C said:

Snowing here in Nottingham Settling a bit too.

Keep me up to date mate!!30 miles south of you here in leicester!!!

[syed2878]

I am in the warning area I just stepped outside the door and here by Villa Park it’s drizzling according to the BBC weather app it supposed to be sleet today and five Celsius yet the BBC local radio WM forecasting snow later.  

[MKN]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Keep me up to date mate!!30 miles south of you here in leicester!!!

Temps peaked here by the looks of it at 3.7 now 3.6. Hopefully it drops off quickly. Perhaps 2pm onwards for leicestershire area. 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, MKN said:

Temps peaked here by the looks of it at 3.7 now 3.6. Hopefully it drops off quickly. Perhaps 2pm onwards for leicestershire area. 

1.5 degrees here in oadby!!!snow was not forecast till well after 12!!!hopefully it happens!!!

[ISAAC]

Temp at 2.4c and dewpoint at 1.9c here in South Stoke, dropping slowly.

Expecting it to turn sleety around Midday onwards, we could get a slushy mess at best, all depends on how much the west side of the front intensifies in the coming hours.

[Supacell]

Light snow in Belper with lots of little flakes. Not settling yet but temperature down to 0c so should start settling if intensity increases.

[sub zero]

Been snowing moderately now for half an hour in notts, everything turning white..

Temp 0.5 and dropping..

Must say, I wasn't expecting it to be this good at 20m above sea level..?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The radars showing signs of building from the west again 

[WelfordRd]

Its like torture by a thousand needles watching the precipitation clear out to the east, we are actually dry now. Unless the radars are wrong i am not sure how it will snow here this afternoon as there wont be anything falling out the sky.  15 miles North East in Leicester its clinging on but surly they are going to be in the same situ as Hinckley shortly. Does anyone know if the direction is going to shift this afternoon or if that blob to the NW of the Midlands is forecast to actually track south not eastwards. 

I know i was told to wait until later but i am calling this as "off" for Hinckley, unless that stuff to the NW tracks properly 

[kmanmx]

1 minute ago, WelfordRd said:

Its like torture by a thousand needles watching the precipitation clear out to the east, we are actually dry now. Unless the radars are wrong i am not sure how it will snow here this afternoon as there wont be anything falling out the sky.  15 miles North East in Leicester its clinging on but surly they are going to be in the same situ as Hinckley shortly. Does anyone know if the direction is going to shift this afternoon or if that blob to the NW of the Midlands is forecast to actually track south not eastwards. 

I know i was told to wait until later but i am calling this as "off" for Hinckley, unless that stuff to the NW tracks properly 

Yeah it's not looking good, I admit. It seems further east than modelled. I'll give it a few more hours but it doesn't look good. Fingers crossed for another event before the end of winter failing that.

[Sweatyman]

21 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

I am in the warning area I just stepped outside the door and here by Villa Park it’s drizzling according to the BBC weather app it supposed to be sleet today and five Celsius yet the BBC local radio WM forecasting snow later.  

weather app-useless. WM-Useless 

[DIS1970]

1 minute ago, Sweatyman said:

weather app-useless. WM-Useless 

Yep, don't bother, never used them, they only look out the window.

[MattStoke]

Looks to be turning to sleet/wet snow here even though the precipitation is very light.

[ISAAC]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Looks to be turning to sleet/wet snow here even though the precipitation is very light.

Yes hint of sleet now, just need some intensification in the next couple of hours

Edited January 14, 2021 by ISAAC

[syed2878]

47 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

yes if you look at GFS 06Z, quarantine walk in shorts and flip flops! on 26th Jan, not that it will happen, but yes looking at latest models January looks a write off, still Feb and Mar though

 So what has happened to the nailed cold spell and what has happened to the down willing from the SSW.

[MKN]

25 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:

Its like torture by a thousand needles watching the precipitation clear out to the east, we are actually dry now. Unless the radars are wrong i am not sure how it will snow here this afternoon as there wont be anything falling out the sky.  15 miles North East in Leicester its clinging on but surly they are going to be in the same situ as Hinckley shortly. Does anyone know if the direction is going to shift this afternoon or if that blob to the NW of the Midlands is forecast to actually track south not eastwards. 

I know i was told to wait until later but i am calling this as "off" for Hinckley, unless that stuff to the NW tracks properly 

Its moving south west now. The precip is not the issue for hinckley its whether or not the colder air undercuts the precip from the east before it clears away

[Monkeypants]

visible flakes now here in ST3

[stripeyfox]

Rain starting to turn sleety here now

 

[PolarWarsaw]

11 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 So what has happened to the nailed cold spell and what has happened to the down willing from the SSW.

There is no nailed cold spell, nothing is 'nailed' in the weather until it's happening outside your window. 

Lot of lessons to be learnt this winter about SSW's - they aren't a golden ticket, they just increase the chances of cold and snow.

That's it. Ignoring the weather in the here and now is exactly why people are so disappointed. 

The SSW is weaker than was originally expected, which can happen and regardless of that, wasn't guaranteed to bring anything anyway - nobody ever said it would, so 'nailed' was just an opinion. 

Mass hysteria and sheep following other people when they are quite obviously using terms such as 'Could', 'can' and 'might' is why the MOD thread is virtually unreadable on a daily basis currently. 

SSW gate and it's failings will be the memory of this winter.

It should also be noted that is now 2/3 of the last SSW events that have failed to improve our weather. Which is possibly a good thing for people to take notice of when we end up back in this position in the next few years. 33% vs 66% of an SSW helping the UK at the surface is a fair reflection of realism in terms of what an SSW does.

Still plenty of snow chances this winter, but in terms of the '20th' and any sort of 'Severe cold spell' - it's all but out of the window. For me, I'd sooner stay in this current set up, no sign for any sort of Zonal weather, a Bartlett etc. Keep these southerly tracking slider style lows with better source of cold air now sitting to the east and it's just a matter of time before we see a widespread snow event.

These pair of sliders today and Saturday, look pretty poor for low ground midlands, even in the east. 

Edited January 14, 2021 by PolarWarsaw

[Terminal Moraine]

It's been snowing steadily for about an hour here after hours of moderate-heavy sleet earlier this morning . There's about 1.5cm on the ground and the temperature is -0.6c.

[cyclonic happiness]

11 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 So what has happened to the nailed cold spell and what has happened to the down willing from the SSW.

the nail went through a rotten floor board, and hit granny on the head 

[CongletonHeat]

Turned to light snow here.

[WelfordRd]

14 minutes ago, MKN said:

Its moving south west now. The precip is not the issue for hinckley its whether or not the colder air undercuts the precip from the east before it clears away

Yeah can see some of the heading back this way, agree there is an additional problem of the temp and cold not undercutting it. Its about this time its expected to start to fade a bit so we will see what happens